NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/4): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Thursday, March 4th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/4

- New York Rangers (-112) vs. New Jersey Devils - 5.5O
- Buffalo Sabres vs. New York Islanders (-185) - 5O
- Philadelphia Flyers (-125) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-105) - 6O
- Detroit Red Wings vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-300) - 6U
- Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Dallas Stars (-150) - 5.5U
- Tampa Bay Lightning (-225) vs. Chicago Blackhawks - 5.5O
- Florida Panthers (-135) vs. Nashville Predators - 5.5O
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Montreal Canadiens (-139) - 5.5O
- Ottawa Senators vs. Calgary Flames (-210) - 6U
- Toronto Maple Leafs (-162) vs. Vancouver Canucks - 6.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Rangers	3	25	10	20	12.5
New Jersey	16	10	6	16	14
Buffalo	19	15	4	18	16
Islanders	3	25	10	20	12.5
Philadelphia	21	5	27	29	16.25
Pittsburgh	27	17	17	22	25
Detroit	28	14	2	27	18.25
Carolina	11	21	26	5	15.25
Columbus	26	6	12	22	17.25
Dallas	6	29	6	31	17.25
Tampa Bay	1	26	30	22	15
Chicago	15	1	20	13	17
Florida	12	13	21	1	9.25
Nashville	20	27	3	9	17.25
Winnipeg	8	6	29	16	10.25
Montreal	14	22	25	2	20.25
Ottawa	30	6	10	4	15.5
Calgary	22	11	5	21	11.75
Toronto	4	24	31	19	12.25
Vancouver	29	2	14	7	20.25

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK%
Rangers	28	31
New Jersey	27	5
Buffalo	3	8
Islanders	12	13
Philadelphia	20	25
Pittsburgh	25	27
Detroit	30	15
Carolina	4	30
Columbus	21	17
Dallas	6	27
Tampa Bay	7	23
Chicago	1	2
Florida	10	29
Nashville	19	19
Winnipeg	14	20
Montreal	17	18
Ottawa	26	16
Calgary	15	26
Toronto	2	13
Vancouver	23	11

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Auston Matthews, TOR ($8,900 DK / $8,900 FD) - Matthews is the clear-cut spend-up option on the slate and is in a great matchup against the Canucks. In five games against Vancouver this season, Matthews has generated five goals on 13 shots so make sure to include him in your player pool for all formats.
Sebastian Aho, CAR ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) - Aho can be a very infuriating fantasy choice because he is such a good overall hockey player, and sometimes that never carries over to a fantasy perspective. Over his last two games, Aho has increased his shooting as he has taken four shots per game and has produced three points which makes it easier to consider rostering him.
Colin White, OTT ($3,900 DK / $4,600 FD) - White is back underneath the 4k mark over on DK and this play is certainly a matchup play. White has found great success against the Flames this season as he has scored a goal in three straight games against Calgary and has accumulated four points in just three games played against them.

Other centers to consider: Couturier, Barkov, Trocheck, Malkin, Point, Pettersson, Pageau, Hintz, Zacha, Stenlund, Danault, McCann, Kotkaniemi

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Mitch Marner, TOR ($7,900 DK / $7,800 FD) - If the pricing on Matthews is too much to handle, consider bumping on down to Marner who will skate alongside Matthews for pretty much the entire game on both the top line and top power-play unit. Marner has recorded an assist in three straight games and has been an assist monster against the Canucks as he has recorded six assists in just three games played against Vancouver this season.
Jonathan Huberdeau, FL ($5,300 DK / $7,300 FD) - There is a clear pricing discrepancy on Huberdeau when comparing the prices over on DK and FD. Huberdeau is 2k cheaper over on DK which is just too good to pass up. Huberdeau is playing above a point per game pace and has done exceptionally well against the Predators this season as he has recorded three goals and two assists in just two games against them this season.
Drake Batheron, OTT ($4,600 DK / $5,000 FD) - Right now, it's hard to argue that the hottest player in the league is anyone other than Drake Batherson. Batherson has generated a point in seven straight games and has accumulated a total of 11 points during this seven-game stretch. Batherson has done well against the Flames this season as he has netted four goals and notched an assist in three games against the Flames.

Other wings to consider: JVR, Stamkos, Forsberg, Toffoli, Tkachuk, Lee, Pavelski, Farabee, Hornqvist, Gallagher, Svechnikov, Miller, Eberle, Benn, Necas, Stuetzle, Coleman, Thornton, Wood, Kapanen, Vatrano, Tolvanen, Svechnikov

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Roman Josi, NSH ($6,900 DK / $6,700 FD) - Josi has as much upside on the slate as any other defenseman and in the matchup against Florida, he should see plenty of opportunities to rack up peripheral stats. In just two games against them, Josi has taken nine shots on goal while also recording five blocked shots which gives him a really solid floor in this matchup.
John Klingberg, DAL ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD) - Here is another price difference that stands out when comparing the two sites. Klingberg is over 1k cheaper on DK and with him being under the 5k mark, it makes him a great candidate for all formats. Klingberg has two assists against the Blue Jackets this year but also has three shots on goal and two blocked shots against them as well so the peripheral stats are also in play as well.
Mattias Ekholm, NSH ($4,000 DK / $4,100 FD) - Ekholm continues to be one of the best values based on the cheap pricing on both sites. Ekholm has seen over 20 minutes of ice time per game since returning from injury and has recorded four points in just three games while taking 14 shots on goal during that three-game span. If you opt to not spend up for Josi, Ekholm is a great pivot that provides a big discount.

Other defensemen to consider: Hamilton, Hedman, Fox, Jones, Petry, Rielly, Pulock, Provorov, Ekblad, Muzzin, Pesce, Sergachev, Subban, McDonagh, Myers, Leddy, Fabbro

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

James Reimer, CAR ($8,200 DK / $7,800 FD) - James Reimer has been a beast in the pipes for the Canes as he is 10-3 on the season with a 2.90 goals allowed average and a .902 save percentage. On home ice, Reimer is sporting a 4-1 record while carrying a 2.60 goals allowed average and a .907 save percentage and gets a great matchup against a Red Wings team that is missing two of their top players in Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi.
Semyon Varlamov, NYI ($8,300 DK / $8,600 FD) - Varlamov has been a steady presence in the net for the Islanders and has been a winner of three of his last four starts. He is 2-0 against Buffalo this season and is carrying a 1.50 goals allowed average while sporting a .947 save percentage in those two games. The Sabres are having a tough time generating any high-danger chances which is good for Varlamov and the rest of the Islanders squad.
Frederik Andersen, TOR ($8,100 DK / $8,400 FD) - Andersen rarely is a candidate to record a shutout but he sees plenty of shot volume which means he is always a candidate for the save bonus over on DK. Andersen has won three straight starts and is averaging under two goals allowed per game during that three-game stretch and shockingly enough, he is 3-0 against the Canucks and has only allowed five goals in those three starts against Vancouver.

Other goalies to consider: Lankinen, Vasilevskiy

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

TOR 1
- Thornton/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, d-men add on)
  - The Maple Leafs and Canucks matchup should produce plenty of chances which means we obviously have to consider the top line for Toronto. Matthews is having a dominant season yet again and as noted above, he is torturing this Canucks team as he has scored five goals against them this year. While this Toronto top line is only sporting a 2.2 expected goals for rate, they're generating 33.93 scoring chances for and 8.21 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. All three Toronto forwards skate with each other at full strength as well as on the top power-play line so they make for a strong correlation play almost every single night.
FLA 1/ PP
- Vatrano/ Barkov/ Verhaeghe (Hornqvist, Huberdeau, Ekblad add-ons)
  - Florida is in a great spot tonight and is one of the better stacking teams on this slate. The Preds have struggled defensively all season long as they are allowing 3.09 goals per game and are in the bottom three when it comes to penalty kills. Florida is a top-10 power-play team and has two very good lines when they play at full strength. The Barkov line with Vatrano has only seen 13 minutes of ice time but are producing good numbers in that short span as they're creating 57.99 scoring chances for and 17.84 high danger chances per 60. If looking to get different, you could combine the top two lines as a good chunk of them share power-play time and hope that some damage is done on the power play against Nashville.
NYI 1
- Lee/ Barzal/ Eberle (Pulock/ Dobson, d-men add on)
  - With the Islanders skating on home ice, they should have a big-time advantage over the Sabres. The topline for New York has skated 169 minutes together and has is carrying a 3.27 expected goals for rate per 60 while generating 32.86 scoring chances and 16.25 high danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time. The Sabres over the last two weeks are conceding over 11.23 high danger chances per 60 while also allowing opposing teams to generate 26.78 scoring chances per 60. Over that same span, The Islanders as a whole have the second-highest high danger chances for per 60 (12.78) while also carrying the sixth-highest expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time (2.45 goals).