NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/15): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 15th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Monday, March 15th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/15

• • Nashville Predators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-300) - 5.5U
  • Washington Capitals (-210) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 6O
  • Philadelphia Flyers (-115) vs. New York Rangers (-105) - 6U
  • Chicago Blackhawks vs. Florida Panthers (-170) - 6O
  • Boston Bruins (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-105) - 5.5O
  • Vancouver Canucks (-175) vs. Ottawa Senators - 6.5U
  • Montreal Canadiens (-125) vs. Winnipeg Jets - 5.5O
  • Edmonton Oilers (-110) vs. Calgary Flames (-110) - 6O
  • San Jose Sharks vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-240) - 6.5U
  • St. Louis Blues (-145) vs. Los Angeles Kings - 5.5U PPD

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / $9,100 FD) - McDavid is the clear-cut choice if choosing to spend up at the center position on this slate. He has generated 12 points over his last five games and is averaging close to five shots on goal during that five-game stretch.
• Elias Lindholm, CGY ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) - The pricing on Lindholm is down quite a bit over on DK and this is the lowest price point we have seen him at all season long. Lindholm has scored a point in three of his last four games and has generated 24 points in 28 games this year.
• Jesperi Kotkaniemi, MTL ($3,400 DK / $4,200 FD) - The Canadiens have been switching up their lines and Kotkaniemi has been featured on the second line with two talented wings in Tyler Toffoli and Brendan Gallagher. If he continues to center this line, there is a lot to like as he will have some of the highest assists upside on the team.

Other centers to consider: Barkov, Scheifele, Miller, Hayes, Karlsson, Monahan, Suzuki, Stephenson, Hertl, DuBois, Glass 

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Max Pacioretty, VGK ($7,700 DK / $7,900 FD) - Pacioretty has done really well against San Jose this season as he has registered two goals and two assists in just three games played. Pacioretty is coming off of a very strong series against the Blues where he recorded four points in just a two-game span while also taking seven shots on goal.
• Mark Stone, VGK ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD) - If the price point is too high for Pacioretty, you always have the option to pivot on down to Mark Stone. Stone is riding a seven0game point streak and has totaled 14 points in that seven-game span. In addition to this hot streak, Stone has recorded two goals and two assists against San Jose this year.
• Jakub Voracek, PHI ($3,900 DK / $6,300 FD) - The pricing on Voracek has finally gotten below the 4k mark over on DK and while he isn't quite the scorer that he once was, he and Claude Giroux will be skating together on the Flyers third line which means they will potentially get to see the depth lines for the Rangers which is a good matchup for them. Voracek has scored three points in his last three games and has taken eight shots on goal during that three-game span.

Other wings to consider: Pastrnak, Draisaitl, Ovechkin, Kane, Tkachuk, DeBrincat, Toffoli, Panarin, Hornqvist, Perron, Tkachuk, Huberdeau, Boeser, Gallagher, Batherson, Kubalik, Verhaeghe, Kyrou, Kapanen, Tatar, Carter, Marchment

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• John Carlson, WSH ($6,600 DK / $6,600 FD) - Carlson has found his groove lately as he has scored a point in four straight games while also taking 14 shots on goal during that four-game stretch. Carlson has one goal and three assists against Buffalo this year and he makes for a great cash game play as he sees plenty of ice time while also averaging close to five peripheral stats per game.
• Erik Karlsson, SJS ($4,700 DK / $4,600 FD) - Karlsson might not be the best offensive defenseman in this mid-tier but he will be in a competitive game against Vegas that could see a quicker pace. Karlsson has two assists against Vegas this year and should see a good amount of ice time as he is skating on the second defensemen line as well as the top power-play unit.
• Adam Boqvist, CHI ($3,600 DK / $3,800 FD) - Boqvist skates on both the top defensive line and top power-play line for the Blackhawks and while he doesn't see a crazy amount of minutes like other top-line defensemen, he certainly makes the most of his opportunities. Boqvist has recorded a goal and an assist against Florida this year while also totaling seven peripheral stats against them injust three games.

Other defensemen to consider: Burns, Chabot, Barriuem Nurse, Ekblad, Theodore, Giordano, Gostisbehere, Faulk, Provorov, Morrissey, Coghlan, Schultz, Hague, Romanov

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,500 DK / $8,400 FD) - Vegas is one of the larger favorites on the slate which means Fleury should be in consideration in all formats. While the Sharks have a strong top line, they tend to have trouble scoring with their depth which only helps Fleury. Fleury has won two straight games and is 14-5 on the year with a 1.81 goals allowed average and a .935 save percentage. In three starts against San Jose this season, Fleury is 2-0 with a .980 save percentage and a 0.50 goals allowed average.
• Ilya Samsonov, WSH ($8,400 DK / $8,200 FD) - Ilya Samsonov has won three straight games (all against the Flyers) and has won four out of his last five starts since returning from the COVID list. He is 5-0-1 on the season with a 2.77 goals allowed average and a .902 save percentage. He does have a win over Buffalo this season and with the Sabres missing Jack Eichel, it makes it very easy to consider Samsonov in all formats.
• Thatcher Demko, VAN ($8,000 DK / $7,000 FD) - Thatecher Demko looks to be a steal over on FD for this slate. He is one of the cheaper goalies and has won five out of his last six starts. Demko is 9-10-1 with a 2.78 goals allowed average and a .917 save percentage on the year and has found success against Ottawa as he has gone 2-0 against them with a 1.00 goals allowed average and a .975 save percentage. Ottawa is on the end of a back-to-back as they're coming off of a big win against Toronto so with them traveling and just playing yesterday, Vancouver could benefit from some tired legs on the Ottawa side of things.

Other goalies to consider:  Smith, Binnington

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• EDM 1
  • Draisaitl/ McDavid/ Yamamoto (Barrie/Nurse, d-men add on)
    • With just 87 minutes of ice time together, this line could be the most potent even-strength line in the league right now. They're sporting a 4.43 expected goals for rate and are generating 42.62 scoring chances for and 21.31 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. There is some slight risk to playing this line due to the high cost of each skater and the fact that they won't be able to control the line matching but once again, their talent should not be overlooked.
• VGK 1
  • Pacioretty/ Stephenson/ Stone (Theodore, d-men add on)
    • This top vegas line has skated with each other for over 250 minutes of ice time throughout the season so far and is sporting some great numbers when at even strength. They have a 2.66 expected goals for rate per 60 while generating 31.29 scoring chances for and 11.19 high danger chances for per 60 minutes. In just 29 total minutes against the Sharks, this line has netted two goals and generated 17 scoring chances with six of those being high danger opportunities.
• VAN 2
  • Hoglander/ Miller/ Boeser (Hughes, d-men add on) 
    • Vancouver is still without their best center in Elias Pettersson so J.T. Miller has been doing a solid job filling in for him as he has centered their second line. This line has skated together for 43 minutes at even strength and is generating 32.88 scoring chances for and 9.59 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. Both Miller and Boeser are featured on the top power-play unit and pairing them with Quinn Hughes would make for a nice three-man stack if you choose to get exposure to the Canucks tonight.

Other Stacks to consider: WSh 1, PHI 3, FL 1, WPG 1, LAK 1

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Scheifele (1.4X), Couturier (1.5X), Suzuki (1.65X), Karlsson (1.75X)

W: Pastrnak (1.15X), Pacioretty (1.3X), Marchand (1.45X), DeBrincat (1.7X)

D: Theodore (1.2X), Giordano (1.3X), Karlsson (1.45X), Barrie (1.7X)

G: Smith (1.3X), Fleury (1.4X), Demko (1.55X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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