NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/16): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Tuesday, February 16th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/16

- New York Islanders (-139) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 5.5U
- Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) - 6.5O
- New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers (-145) - 5.5O
- Nashville Predators vs. Dallas Stars (-155) - 5.5U
- Colorado Avalanche (-105) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-130) - 5.5O
- Minnesota Wild (-125) vs. Los Angeles Kings - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Buffalo	21	13	12	2	14.5
NYI	5	21	7	17	10
Washington	30	6	29	25	18.25
Pittsburgh	27	26	17	20	26.75
New Jersey	12	7	8	20	7.75
NY Rangers	9	22	5	7	14.75
Nashville	26	17	4	14	23.25
Dallas	12	26	22	28	14
Colorado	2	29	21	5	16.75
Vegas	2	30	20	16	14.5
Minnesota	14	18	10	14	18.25
LA	25	5	17	24	13.5

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Team	PP%	OPP PK %
Buffalo	6	12
NYI	15	10
Washington	1	28
Pittsburgh	23	16
New Jersey	27	7
NY Rangers	27	31
Nashville	24	19
Dallas	4	30
Colorado	9	6
Vegas	19	1
Minnesota	31	9
LA	11	4

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Joe Pavelski, DAL ($7,600 DK / $7,200 FD) - Pavelski is having a strong start to the 2021 season as he has notched 17 points in just 12 games so far this season. He has scored points in nine games this season and has registered a point in back-to-back games. Pavelski has torched the Predators this season as he has scored three goals and recorded four assists in just two games played.
Sidney Crosby, PIT ($6,400 DK / $7,800 FD) - The pricing on Crosby is still relatively soft for his upside and the matchup he is in. Crosby has found success against the Caps this season as he has recorded five points in just three games so far this season. Crosby is now rounding into form as he has recorded a point in three straight games and should have plenty of opportunities against a Caps team that is allowing 3.8 goals per game.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, NYI ($4,000 DK / $4,400 FD) - JGP is starting to heat up for the Islanders as he has now notched a point in three straight games and has recorded four goals over his last three games played. Pageau is picking up some of the scoring slack that has been missing from this Islanders team but it's best to ride the hot hand of a good player while he checks in at a reduced price.

Other centers to consider: MacKinnon, Barzal, Kopitar, Zibanejad, Kuznetsov, Strome, Stephenson, Zacha, Eller

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Alex Ovechkin, WSH ($8,700 DK / $8,400 FD) - If spending up at the wing position, you could never really go wrong with Ovechkin. While the Crosby line is tough defensively, Ovechkin is never afraid to shoot the puck so he carries a very high floor over on DK for the shot bonus. Ovi has scored six points over his last three games and has attempted 14 total shots over that three-game span.
Jake Guentzel, PIT ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) - The top line for the Pens is starting to click and Guentzel is starting to heat up along with the rest of his linemates. Guentzel has scored two goals over his last three games and has generated six total points over that three-game span. He has found success against the Capitals this season as he has recorded two goals and four assists against Washington in just three games played while averaging over three shots on goal per game against them.
Jonathan Marchessault, VGK ($4,700 DK / $6,100 FD) - If you're wanting to get exposure to the Golden Knights but want to save some money, Marchessault is reasonably priced on both sites. He has recorded a point in 10 out of 13 games so far this season and is averaging over three shots on goal per game over his last four games played. while Marchessault doesn't have the highest ceiling on this Golden Knights squad, he offers a safe floor that would be needed for cash game builds.

Other wings to consider: Pacioretty, Rantanen, Rust, Fiala, Lee, Eberle, Brown, Carter, Iafallo, Wood, Vrana, Bailey, Smith, Skinner

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Alex Pietrangelo, VGK ($6,200 DK / $6,400 FD) - Shea Theodore could be out again for Tuesday nights game against Colorado which means Pietrangelo could still draw a spot on the top power-play unit in addition to skating on the top defensive pairing for the Golden Knights. Pietrangelo is playing at a point per game pace and has recorded an assist in four straight games.
Kris Letang, PIT ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) - Kris Letang could be turning the corner in a good way as he has registered 10 peripheral stats over the last two games while also recording a point in three straight games. Since returning to the lineup, Letang has seen over 23 minutes of ice time per game and is averaging two shots and a blocked shot per game during his last three games played.
Scott Mayfield, NYI ($2,600 DK / $3,500 FD) - Rostering Mayfield worked Monday night as he was able to notch an assist at a low price point of 2.8k on DK. For the Tuesday night slate, Mayfield is even cheaper and has now registered a point in back-to-back games.

Other defensemen to consider: Josi, Carlson, Klingberg, Ellis, Fox, Toews, Doughty, Dobson, Subban, Dahlin, Schultz, Ceci, Irwin

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($7,700 DK / $8,900 FD) - The pricing on Fleury over on DK seems to be a tad generous. Fleury is having a great season so far as he is 7-1 with a 1.38 goals allowed average and a .944 save percentage. He is coming off of a shutout win against the Avalanche where he stopped all 30 shots that he faced and recorded a season-high 31 DK points. While the matchup is tough against the Avs, the home-ice advantage, the pricing, and the recent for of Fleury is too good to pass up.
Anton Khudobin, DAL ($8,400 DK / $8,100 FD) - With the Dallas and Predators getting postponed on Monday night, we might as go back to the well on Tuesday night. The Stars got off to a hot start and part of that is due to the play of Anton Khudobin. Khudobin opened up the season winning three straight games with two of those wins coming against Nashville. On the season Khudobin is 3-3-1 with a 2.75 goals allowed average and a .902 save percentage. When it comes to facing the Preds so far this year, Khudobin is 2-0 with a 1.00 goals allowed average and a .961 save percentage. Khudobin hasn't been in the best of form as he has lost four straight games (one of them coming in overtime) but hopefully, he can right the ship against a Nashville team that is scoring just 2.3 goals per game so far this season.
Jonathan Quick, LAK ($7,100 DK / $6,700 FD) - If you're looking to pay down at the goalie position, Jonathan Quick should be considered. The Kings will have the home-ice advantage which means they will be able to match their lines accordingly. Quick's overall numbers aren't the prettiest as he is 2-2-2 with a 4.05 goals allowed average and a .867 save percentage but the Wild are only scoring 2.7 goals per game and are averaging 2.4 goals per game while on the road.

Other goalies to consider: Sorokin, Wedgewood, Jarry

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

DAL 1/ PP Unit
- Benn/ Pavelski/ Kiviranta (Klingberg, d-men add on)
  - The Stars top line has looked very good throughout the beginning portion of the season. When diving into the numbers, the trio of Benn, Pavelski, and Klingberg has posted some really strong numbers in 38 minutes of ice time together. They have an expected goal for rate of 3.34 while generating 45.43 scoring chances for and 12.53 high-danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time. The Stars also have a top-five power-play unit and will be going up against a Nashville team that has the second-worst penalty-killing unit in the entire league and all three of those skaters are featured on the top power-play unit.
PIT 1
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, d-men add on)
  - The Pens top line had a very strong performance Sunday afternoon against the Capitals as they posted a 55.17 corsi while generating 10 scoring chances and four high danger opportunities in just 15 minutes of ice time. They saw a decent amount of the Caps top two lines but were the most effective when going up against the Backstrom line as they generated four scoring chances and two high danger opportunities against that line specifically. This game features the highest game total on the slate and will be a popular option to stack on either side so make sure you grab some exposure if you're building multiple entries.
WSH 2
- Vrana / Kuznetsov/ Oshie (Schultz, d-men add on)
  - As mentioned above for the Penguins, this game features the highest total on the slate and should be extremely competitive so you might as well consider the Caps side of things as well, especially their second line. The Kuznetsov line should see more of the Malkin line which has been terrible defensively all season long and in their Sunday game against Pittsburgh, the Kuznetsov line posted a 68.42 corsi with five scoring chances and three high danger opportunities. The Malkin line is allowing 30.47 scoring chances and 12.19 high danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time and with the Crosby line spending more time on the ice with the Backstrom line, this leaves the Caps second line in a very favorable matchup.