2025 NFL Win Totals: NFC Picks, Strength of Schedule, and Team Predictions

Thunder Dan Palyo gives you his 2025 NFL win totals for the NFC. Read his top prop picks and NFL futures bets for 2025. These NFL bets include team win totals for every NFC team.

NFL fans are anxiously anticipating the start of training camp, and the buzz around America's most popular professional sport is palpable. We are only a few weeks out from the NFL taking over the sports world, and I know many of you simply can't wait to fire up fantasy drafts, build DFS lineups, and lay dozens of bets with your favorite sportsbook.

A few weeks ago, I released my AFC predictions and picks for the 2025 season. Those odds are updated through today, and I'll continue to update the odds in both that article and this one for at least a few more weeks while the NFL futures market remains hot.

We haven't even seen these teams play a preseason game yet, so we are going off what we saw last year and what we expect this coming season based on player movement, coach movement, and schedules. I have made my predictions on all 16 NFC teams (see the table below) and rated them by confidence level. Let's take a look at some of my favorite picks for the coming season. If you love my picks (or hate them), feel free to let me hear about them on X @ThunderDanDFS.

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NFL Team Win Totals: 2025 NFC Predictions

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel or DraftKings SportsBook. Strength of Schedule ratings are based on 2024 records.

Highest Confidence Picks

Minnesota Vikings UNDER 8.5 wins (+120 FanDuel Sportsbook)

My apologies to my friends in the great state of Minnesota who are surely not going to like this pick. And let me be clear, I love the Vikings - my favorite color is purple! I love fishing, too, and I often wish I were a Minnesotan with access to the 10,000 lakes. But I think this season could set up to be a big disappointment for the Vikings and the Skol-sayers.

I think even the most ardent Viking fans will acknowledge, to an extent, how last year's 14-win season was pretty fluky and that a lot of luck broke their way. The team overperformed their Pythagorean win total by three games, winning five games by three points or less. We shouldn't ignore how their season ended either, as they were hammered by the Lions in Week 17 and blown out in the first round of the playoffs by the Rams.

I have to give Kevin O'Connell and his staff a ton of credit. I am not sure there is another coaching staff that could have won 14 games with a journeyman backup QB like Sam Darnold. They maximized Darnold's talent, and the defense played at an incredibly high level all year, keeping this team in games and allowing some very exciting finishes, with most of those close games going Minnesota's way.

Now they hand the keys to a rookie (yeah, McCarthy may as well still be a rookie since he didn't take a single snap in a regular season game) at quarterback. The offensive line is set to have three new starters, including a rookie center, and the defense also projects to have four new starters, including at both cornerback positions.

I know J.J. McCarthy is going to be surrounded by talent on offense and that O'Connell has elevated Kirk Cousins and Darnold in recent years, but this division is going to be incredibly tough. The Lions beat the Vikings twice last year, the second time quite handily in Week 17. They managed to beat the Packers twice by a combined four points, and one of their wins against Chicago was by just three points.

Minnesota Vikings 2025 Schedule: pic.twitter.com/W7nwRGr9rB

— Vikings Communications (@VikingsPR) May 15, 2025

The Lions project as the top team in the division again, while most expect the Packers and Bears to take another step forward. While this defense was very solid last season, it did allow an average of 25.8 points per game against divisional opponents. Can the Vikings expect their rookie QB to win in shootouts every week in this division that is loaded with offense?

The Vikings get the AFC North on the schedule (no easy outs there other than Cleveland) and the NFC East (same thing there with the Giants as the only weak team). The Chargers show up on the schedule, too, and are expected to be a very tough team this season.

Los Angeles Rams OVER 9.5 wins (-145 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Last year, the Rams scored fewer points than they allowed, and therefore, their Pythagorean win total lagged behind their actual win total (10 games). Sometimes that can be a red flag, but going into this season, there are multiple green flags that make me feel pretty confident they can repeat their 10-win season or even improve on it with 11 or 12 wins in 2025.

Let's start with their own division, the NFC West. The Niners should bounce back, but they were humbled in a big way last year, and the rest of the division realized that they're mere mortals when they're not healthy or when they're forced to play from behind. I expect the Cardinals to be improved, but not so much better that the Rams can't at least split the season series with them. The Seahawks are a toss-up, but it's quite possible they even take a step back this season as they bring in a new quarterback and new players at multiple positions.

I think a 3-3 divisional record is probably the floor here, and the schedule sets up very favorably from there. The Rams get what should be the weakest divisions in both the NFC (South) and the AFC (South) for eight games. They'll need to stack up wins there as their final three games come against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Detroit.

I do think this team will be better on both sides of the ball. The addition of Davante Adams on offense is an upgrade over Cooper Kupp, in my opinion. It's not that Adams is that much better of a player, and I realize he's significantly older, but it's the fact that he can stretch the field and run a wider variety of routes than Kupp. That should allow Puka Nacua to be utilized as both a downfield target and a possession receiver, too.

These receivers are quite complementary of each other and could open up this entire offense, including more room for Kyren Williams and the running game by forcing teams to play two high safeties.

Terron Armstead via @RichEisenShow 🗣️
“I’ve played James Harrison and Justin Smith — very strong humans — but Jared Verse has something different...”💪

The hype around Verse keeps getting louder 📈 pic.twitter.com/bg052OLNJZ

— LAFB Network (@LAFBNetwork) June 26, 2025

Jared Verse and Omar Speights return to lead a tenacious linebacking corps. The Rams' secondary remains intact as well and finished last season 11th in opposing passing yards. If LA can improve against the run, they'll have a more balanced defense, as they already excel in rushing the QB.

Medium Confidence Picks

Arizona Cardinals OVER 8.5 wins (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

You may notice that I have every NFC West team going over their win total, which has a lot to do with their incredibly lucky draw of the NFC South and AFC South for their interconference and intraconference divisions.

But there's a lot to like about the Cardinals this season, not just their schedule. Despite an 8-9 overall record, this team was very competitive and finished with the 12th-best overall DVOA ranking. The offense ranked 11th, while the defense made a big leap from 2023 to finish 14th in DVOA defensive rating.

Great stuff from Mina and Budda here.

The Cardinals were a top 15 defense last year.

Add all the talent through free agency and the draft with Nick Rallis calling the shots in 2025?

This defense has a clear path to being top 5. https://t.co/L3gsjXQ7Wv

— Alex Clancy (@ClancysCorner) June 26, 2025

The defense made some moves this offseason that are being viewed as upgrades, bringing in veterans Calais Campbell and Josh Sweat. They also drafted defensive studs Walter Nolen III and Will Johnson with their first two picks, and both are expected to compete for starting gigs.

If we see some improvement from Kyler Murray and the offense this season, then this team could be on its way to 10+ wins. I think a better year from Marvin Harrison Jr. is almost a certainty, as he was a major disappointment last year. He's too good to be that bad again, and another offseason with Murray to develop chemistry should only help them get on the same page this year.

Washington Commanders OVER 9.5 wins (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)

There are some compelling cases to be made for the under here, as the Commanders were relatively lucky last season, winning a lot of close games. I mean, the Hail Mary to beat the Bears comes to mind as one game they had no business winning, but there were also four other games they won by four points or less.

𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚: #Commanders RB Austin Ekeler thinks that Washington will have a “powerhouse” offense in 2025, he told @SIRIUSXM

“I think there's even going to be more growth this year, which is awesome because of where we are at with our team and have a lot of players back.… pic.twitter.com/LJU2TTcArn

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) June 25, 2025

To be honest, the schedule looks pretty challenging as the Commanders will have to battle the Eagles in the NFC East while also squaring off against the NFC North and AFC West (two very competitive divisions).

But this still feels like a team that is ascending, and after watching Jayden Daniels last season, it feels tough to bet against him or this young, feisty team. Per DVOA ratings, this was a top-ten team (finished 10th overall) with balance as they were inside the top 10 on both offense and defense.

Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury was in his bag, utilizing the skills of his running back duo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler perfectly to complement the running ability of Daniels. Now, the Commanders have added Deebo Samuel Sr. to this offense as the ultimate wild card, who can be deployed in so many different ways. Let's not overlook the addition of Laremy Tunsil at left tackle protecting Daniels' blindside either.

The Commanders will be out to prove that last year was no fluke. It might not come easily, but I think this team proved its resilience last year and can battle its way to 10 or 11 wins and a wild-card berth in the playoffs.

New York Giants UNDER 5.5 wins (-130 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Listen, Giants fans - I want your team to win six games. Heck, I want them to win more than that. But what we want and what we get are two very different things, aren't they?

As someone who got a ride on the Russell Wilson experience last season when he took the reins for my Pittsburgh Steelers, I can safely say that "no, he's not going to improve your offense." At this stage in his career, Russ can still throw a pretty moon-ball, but he also chickens out and makes the safe throw far too often, and his ability to scramble and extend plays is all but gone.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see Jameis Winston and, eventually, the rookie Jaxson Dart this year as the losses start to pile up. After winning just three games last year, the schedule-makers rewarded the Giants with the MOST DIFFICULT schedule in 2025.

I could see the Giants stealing a win against the Cowboys (who I don't think will be all that good), but they are well behind Washington and Philadelphia in the division. I already mentioned how tough this schedule is for NFC East teams as they get the NFC North and AFC West, and unlike Washington, the Giants don't have an elite QB to keep them in games against good teams.

Abdul Carter is going to be a menace and should help upgrade this defense, but this team feels like it's still a few years away from being competitive. If I give them a split with the Cowboys and wins over the Raiders and Saints, that's three wins. But then they'd need three more against the Commanders (twice), Eagles (twice), NFC North, AFC West, Forty-Niners, and Patriots. I don't think they can get there.

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