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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 1. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of. Today, we will look at the Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans and the Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals.
Cardinals @ Titans More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Ryan Tannehill less than 251.5 passing yards and Kyler Murray more than 260.5 passing yards
Is Ryan Tannehill capable of throwing for 250 yards on this Cardinals Defense? Absolutely. Will he have to throw for 280 yards against them? Probably not. The Titans will likely move the ball on the ground quite a bit with their workhorse running back, Derrick Henry. In 2020, Arizona allowed the 12th-most rushing yards to backs while also allowing the 12th-most passing yards to quarterbacks. This is a pick your poison type of game going against Arizona and given the fact the Titans are three-point favorites, they will likely be grinding the clock away late in this one. This is also a number Tannehill hit just six times in 2020.
Murray will almost certainly be able to find success through the air against this Titans Defense as they allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game to quarterbacks in 2020 by allowing nearly 250 passing yards a game. The Cardinals have added A.J. Green via free agency and drafted Rondale Moore via the draft to pair with DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. This should be an offense that Murray is able to make go through the air and the fact that they are underdogs fuels the passing narrative in this one.
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Vikings @ Bengals Rushing Attack Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon to combine for over 196.5 rushing yards
While I am expecting Dalvin Cook to carry a majority of this workload, both of these backs are more than capable of having big days.
We will start with Dalvin Cook who ran for over 100 rushing yards in eight of his 14 games in 2020 and also ran for over 150 yards in three games. He will be going up against a Bengals Defense that allowed running backs to rush for an average of nearly 126 rushing yards per game, which ranked third-worst in the NFL. The fact that the Vikings are favored by 3.5 points in this game should also help him tack on yards late in the game if the Vikings are trying to milk the clock.
While the Bengals are underdogs in this game, I still like Joe Mixon to have a solid day against this Vikings Defense as they are likely to try and move the ball on the ground quite a bit in the early weeks of the season given the knee injury Joe Burrow is returning from. If they decide to keep the ball on the ground in this game, they could have a ton of success against a Vikings unit that allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game to backs in 2020 by allowing over 100 rushing yards per game. When Mixon was healthy in 2020, he was given no less than 16 carries in any one game, so we could expect that to be his floor in this game. Given the fact the Vikings allowed 4.9 yards per carry in 2020, it would not be unreasonable to see Mixon rush for somewhere around 80-plus yards in this one.
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Vikings @ Bengals Touchdown Dance Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Joe Mixon to combine for more than 1.5 touchdowns
This is another play off of the above-mentioned selections with the addition of Justin Jefferson. The Bengals allowed 20 receiving touchdowns to wideouts in 2020, which ranked fifth-worst in the league. They also allowed the seventh-most red-zone targets with 43. While Jefferson did not lead this team in touchdowns in 2020 as Adam Thielen (and he's fine to use in this prop as well) hauled in 14 touchdowns, he did pace the team in targets and yards with 125 and 1,440, respectively. Thielen's production inside the red zone was otherworldly in 2020 and is not likely to be repeated, which is why I look to Jefferson in this prop.
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