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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for October 4th, 2020 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
Week 4 of the NFL season is upon is and some trends are starting to show early in the season.
You can take advantage of those trends, play props, and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
Early in this season, the passing yardage is a bit higher than in previous seasons, with teams averaging more than 247 passing yards per game in 2020 compared to 235 yards per game in 2019.
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This is continuing a trend towards more passing but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Some of these passing yardage props can look awfully high when viewed through a historical lens but, if teams are consistently passing more than they have in the past, those numbers might be more achievable.
It’s also a bit of a strange week – it wouldn’t be 2020 without something unusual happening – and suddenly the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers are on a bye after the Titans had a Covid-19 outbreak. No one ever said managing a pro sports league through a pandemic would be easy.
Here are some angles to consider for the Sunday NFL schedule on Monkey Knife Fight:
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Dak Prescott LESS THAN 320.5 PASSING YARDS
The Cowboys quarterback hasn’t been shy to air it out, throwing for 922 yards in the past two weeks. He goes against a Browns team that has allowed 253.7 passing yards per game and 5.8 net passing yards per attempt through the first three games. That’s decent enough pass defense to keep Prescott from going over what is a large number to cover.
Russell Wilson MORE THAN 295.5 PASSING YARDS
It’s been an incredible start to the season for Seattle’s star quarterback, as he has thrown 14 touchdown passes and is averaging 308.3 passing yards per contest. The Seahawks travel to Miami where the Dolphins have allowed 265.7 passing yards per game and only three teams have allowed a higher net yards per pass attempt that the Dolphins are 7.7 yards per attempt (and one of those teams is Seattle!).
Drew Brees LESS THAN 285.5 PASSING YARDS
After passing for just 160 yards in Week One, the veteran Saints quarterback has recovered, throwing for 600 yards in the past two weeks. He’s still going to be without top wide receiver Michael Thomas and tight end Jared Cook, so Brees may have to get creative in the passing game against a Detroit team with decent numbers against the pass, including 237 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt.
Teddy Bridgewater LESS THAN 270.5 PASSING YARDS
While Bridgewater has averaged 290.3 passing yards per game, that has been boosted by throwing for 367 yards at Tampa Bay in Week 2. This week, he faces an Arizona team that is allowing 224.7 passing yards per game and 6.2 net passing yards per attempt, both better-than-average defensive numbers.
RAPID FIRE
Kenyan Drake +4.5 rushing yards vs. Ezekiel Elliott
After running for just 34 yards against Seattle last week, Zeke is due to bounce back, though he is going up against a Browns Defense that is allowing 3.7 yards per carry. Drake has been a steady contributor for the Cardinals and gets a shot at a Carolina defense that is surrendering 4.9 yards per carry. That defensive difference makes Drake a lively underdog in this week’s matchup.
Keenan Allen +0.5 receptions vs. Alvin Kamara
Coming off a week in which he was targeted 19 times, catching 13 passes, against Carolina, Allen is the focal point of the Chargers passing game. Kamara was targeted 14 times last week against Green Bay, catching 13, as the Saints like to get him in open space but he also has the option of carrying the ball so Allen should be an intriguing underdog in this matchup.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Patrick Mahomes MORE THAN 292.5 PASSING YARDS
Watching Mahomes play it feels like he only gets held under 300 yards if he (or the Chiefs) feel like easing up once they have a big lead. Maybe they won’t race out to a big lead against New England, because the Patriots are good too, but New England is also allowing 7.4 net yards per pass attempt, the sixth-highest average in the league.
Josh Allen MORE THAN 279.5 PASSING YARDS
The Bills quarterback has passed for at least 310 yards in each of his three games thus far. Are the Raiders the team to suddenly keep him in check? It doesn’t really look like it. The Raiders have allowed 242.3 passing yards per game, which is a little better than average but at a clip of 7.1 net yards per pass attempt which is higher than average. Those mixed results look like a mediocre defense and it should take better than mediocre to slow down Allen.
Josh Jacobs MORE THAN 80.5 RUSHING YARDS
The Raiders running back is averaging 84 rushing yards per game this season, 87.6 per game for his career, and faces a Bills team that has allowed just 106 rushing yards per game, the seventh-fewest in the league, but 4.6 yards per carry which is slightly worse than average.
RAPID FIRE
Travis Kelce -0.5 receiving yards vs. Tyreek Hill
Through three games this season, Kelce is averaging 75.7 receiving yards per game and Hill is averaging 74.0 receiving yards per game. They are both vital components in the Chiefs attack. Given the choice between them, Kelce does appear to be safer, not quite as much boom or bust potential as Hill.
Cooper Kupp +0.5 receptions vs. Stefon Diggs
Both receivers are crucial to their respective teams’ offenses. Kupp started slowly in Week One but has been building up in the past two weeks, catching nine passes on 10 targets against Buffalo in Week 3. Diggs was a major factor for the Bills in the first two weeks before he was held to four catches on six targets in a tough matchup against the Rams last week. Kupp gets the Giants this week while Diggs faces the Raiders so both receivers ought to have an opportunity to be productive. Getting the extra half reception for Kupp as the underdog is worthwhile.
