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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Falcons vs. Commanders SNF Showdown slate Week 17 (Dec. 29, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an NFC South club taking on an NFC East opponent on the road for the second straight week. This time, it’ll be a duel between rookie quarterbacks as Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons (8-7) head north to take on Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders (10-5). Let’s see how this one plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Falcons vs. Commanders SNF DFS showdown slate on December 29. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Michael Penix Jr. - QB, $13,200 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 240 passing yards, one interception, four rushing attempts, three rushing yards
- Projected Pass DVOA: 16.05%
I’ll start the slate with one of the aforementioned rookie quarterbacks, Michael Penix Jr. Penix didn’t offer much from a fantasy perspective against the Giants in his first NFL start but did more than enough to lead his team to victory. Unfortunately, quarterbacks don’t get points for a win like a starting pitcher or a hockey goalie would, but I think Penix shows a bit more on the national stage against this 22nd-ranked Commanders passing defense.
My model projects Penix to throw for 210 yards and 1.61 touchdowns to just 0.62 interceptions, adding 13.39 yards on 3.35 rushing attempts and 0.09 touchdowns on the ground against Washington.
Terry McLaurin - WR, $15,300 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 98 targets, 73 receptions, 1,029 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR1: 1.9%
I’ll flip the field and look at Terry McLaurin. As fantasy championships are wrapping up, I feel vindicated for being so high on McLaurin before the start of this season. He and quarterback Jayden Daniels have made waves across the league in 2024. McLaurin isn’t seeing the raw volume that top receivers like CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase see, but he’s just as efficient with his target share as the elite class of NFL receivers.
McLaurin is coming off a five-reception, 60-yard, and one-touchdown performance against Philadelphia last week. He projects to bring in 5.8 of 8.25 targets for 74.15 yards and 0.55 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jayden Daniels, Bijan Robinson, Drake London
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jayden Daniels - QB, $11,800 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 3,303 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions, 128 rushing attempts, 737 rushing yards, and six rushing touchdowns
- Projected Pass DVOA: 35.85%
Ideally, I want to save some in the captain/MVP spots tonight, as this slate is top-heavy. Daniels is a fantastic pick in the 1.5x spot on both sites, as Washington’s projected passing DVOA suggests.
Daniels was the talk of the town this week following his impressive performance against the Eagles last week. Despite having two interceptions for just the second time this season, Daniels accumulated 339 yards from scrimmage to go along with his five touchdowns and a victory on his home turf.
JAYDEN DANIELS. COMMANDERS TAKE THE LEAD WITH 6 SECONDS.#PHIvsWAS pic.twitter.com/BcKGpEBIsl
— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
Tonight, my model projects Daniels to throw for 228.26 yards and 1.75 touchdowns to just 0.7 interceptions while adding 49.98 yards and 0.32 rushing touchdowns on 9.68 rushing attempts.
Bijan Robinson - RB, $11,000 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 259 rushing attempts, 1,196 rushing yards, 62 targets, 56 receptions, 420 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns
- Projected Rush DVOA: 5.21%
We’ll flip over to the Atlanta offense and look at Bijan Robinson. Robinson is finally beginning to see some serious volume out of the Atlanta backfield, averaging 23 rushing attempts and three targets per game over the Falcons’ last four games.
The Falcons will likely look to the star second-year running back to ease their rookie quarterback into things, which could pay huge dividends against this 25th-ranked Washington run defense.
That Bijan Robinson guy is pretty good pic.twitter.com/7WVDklV3gH
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 17, 2024
My model projects Robinson to accumulate 107.17 all-purpose yards and 0.81 touchdowns on 20.01 touches in this one.
Other Flex Options: Drake London, Brian Robinson Jr., Darnell Mooney
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Ray-Ray McCloud III - WR, $5,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 79 targets, 57 receptions, 607 receiving yards, one touchdown
- Opponent DVOA vs. Other WR: 18.4%
I’ll review a pair of Falcons in my value spots. We’ll start with Ray-Ray McCloud III, who caught three of four targets for 19 yards, adding eight rushing yards on one rushing attempt last Sunday. McCloud is a pseudo-gadget guy for this Atlanta offense, and I hope offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will draw a few plays up to get the offense and ease Penix into tonight’s game.
My model projects McCloud to see 4.69 targets in this one, catching 3.19 for 32.75 yards and 0.19 touchdowns.
Tyler Allgeier - RB, $4,000 (DK), $5,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 125 rushing attempts, 573 rushing yards, 11 targets, 11 receptions, 71 receiving yards, three touchdowns
- Projected Rush DVOA: 5.21%
I’ll wrap things up with Atlanta’s second-string running back, Tyler Allgeier. I mentioned earlier that Bijan Robinson is finally seeing huge volume as the starter, but that hasn’t stopped Allgeier from getting his. Allgeier isn’t as efficient as Robinson in that regard, but he has still seen double-digit rushing attempts in the last two weeks, which I cannot pass up at his price on a top-heavy slate.
My model projects Allgeier to run the ball 9.1 times this week for 45.14 yards, adding 1.11 receptions on 1.7 targets for 8.46 yards and 0.33 total touchdowns.
Other Value Options: Jamison Crowder, Zach Ertz, Kyle Pitts, Riley Patterson, Luke McCaffrey
Have a good week, everyone!
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