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In a league where team/player loyalty holds the weight of a long-term contract, projecting success in the NBA is challenging. Despite superstars vacating franchises at what feels like an annual rate, franchises must trek through the progressively stale 82-game schedule to win the highly-coveted Larry O'Brien trophy.
Every piece of the puzzle matters, especially considering the new CBA that punishes franchises that dive into the luxury tax.
With all the significant transactions set in stone, sans the imminent trading of Damian Lillard, gauging the stock of each NBA franchise seems like a fair exercise. It's a simple activity: determine whether or not the franchise in question did enough in the offseason to ascend within the league's pecking order.
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Dallas Mavericks
An NBA draft with noteworthy action from the Dallas Mavericks? Such an occasion seems to happen every twenty years. In 1998, the Mavericks traded for the rights of Dirk Nowitzki and then, 20 years later, did the same for Luka Doncic. Although Dallas' 2023 draft selections lack the superstar power, it's refreshing seeing Dallas trade for a late first-round pick and shedding salary while staying in the lottery.
Aside from shedding Davis Bertans $17 million, Dallas obtained the services of backup center Richaun Holmes and drafted Olivier-Maxence Prosper with the 24th overall pick. Regarding the lottery selection, Mavericks' general manager Nico Harrison drafted Dereck Lively ll, a center out of Duke University, with a courageous backstory and a build reminiscent of Tyson Chandler, the starting center for Dallas in its lone championship run.
While Lively ll will more than likely become a project prospect, Prosper's play invoked clamor amongst Mavericks employees, going as far as saying, "Prosper will immediately be part of the rotation" ( per The Athletic's Tim Cato)mainly due to his defensive efforts.
Pending a trade for another big, Dwight Powell appears as the starting enter for a consecutive season. Thankfully, for the Mavericks' fall-from-grace of a defensive performance last year, the Mavs pulled off a miraculous sign-and-trade for the young, defensive-minded Grant Williams via the Celtics. They ranked 24th in defensive rating last season.
Addressing its lack of shooters on the bench, Dallas reunites with Seth Curry for the third time. With Tim Hardaway Jr. in numerous trade rumors, obtaining a high-volume three-point shooter bodes well for the second unit.
Unlike last summer, the Mavericks didn't sit on their hands while the league beat them to the chase. However, slotting Powell in anything other than a backup center role comes as a loss for a struggling rebounding team. Failing to trade for a legitimate center will hurt the Mavericks, but at least they addressed needs in the draft and obtained younger talent via free agency.
Verdict: STOCK UP
Denver Nuggets
The 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets. What a sentence. Following a legendary run by Nikola Jokic, Denver won its first championship. How could you say anything wrong about a team reaching such historic heights?
Firstly, as long as the core remains intact, the Nuggets can repeat. However, in light of the myriad of trades made in the Western Conference, losing key role player Bruce Brown potentially creates a weak spot in the Nuggets' otherwise solid roster constitution,
Secondly, giving Reggie Jackson a player option, the same player who averaged 0.5 points per contest in six playoff game appearances, is the most unnecessary contract of the summer. It invokes JaVale McGee vibes from the Mavericks' questionable 2022 free agency. Losing Brown without any significant move to follow and essentially mindlessly handing money to a veteran two seasons away from possibly trying out for the Big 3 league fairly warrants doubt from critics.
However, when Jokic and Jamal Murray's two-man game gears up against opposing defenses, mixed with a little sprinkle of apparently improved Christian Braun off the bench and the timely defensive performances from Aaron Gordon, Denver will make the most formidable opponent think twice before allowing such doubt.
Their free agency failure aside, consider the Nuggets championship favorites.
Verdict: STOCK UP
Golden State Warriors
Never say never. After years of belittling Chris Paul's postseason shortcomings, Golden State Warriors fans must root for a team featuring the Wake Forest alum. Either it's comical irony or another reminder that rivalries mean little in the current NBA era. Still, shedding Jordan Poole's $128-million deal renders Golden State successful regardless of what one thinks of Paul's current basketball state.
A little under a year removed from "the punch" debacle, sending the team into an uncomfortable and season-defining spiral, the Warriors shipped Poole (the punchee) to Washington while extending Draymond Green in a $100-million deal. Indeed we live in a cruel world. One could say the Warriors made the Paul-Poole trade for sheer financial reasons. However, extending such a broken relationship didn't make sense synergy-wise. The Warriors had a crack in their chemistry.
Why not save a buck or two while gaining another veteran presence for a team thinking of the present rather than the future from a basketball standpoint?
Although the Warriors lost Donte DiVincenzo, they gained veteran backup center Dario Saric and journeyman point guard Corey Joseph. All in all, it was a good offseason, despite what the Warriors fandom tells you.
Verdict: STOCK UP
Houston Rockets
When historians reflect on the 2023 NBA free agency, the Houston Rockets will define the summer. Dollars spent aside, the Rockets made the most splashes in conversation and dominated the wow factor. Fatigue of losing, Houston's front office opted to sign veteran talent for leadership and win-improvement purposes.
$262,539,846 is the magic number. No, it's not the latest lottery winner; it's the dollars splurged on four players with one All-Star appearance between them. Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jock Landale, and Jeff Green are the poster children of the importance of providing context into free agency and, more importantly, NBA CBA discourse.
Undoubtedly, such a colossal number warrants a reaction. Yes, the Rockets splurged in free agency, but as intelligent basketball people say, "Look at the percentages, not the dollar amount." For the 2023-2024 season, VanVleet's annual earnings take up 30 percent of the Rocket' cap room. Houston had to spend the money, and for a bad team to get notable free agents, "overpaying" is a necessary evil.
Brooks had a lousy postseason, especially adding that he failed in his antagonizing efforts versus the Los Angeles Lakers. Also, he was just a bad sport, skipping out on media availability countless times, despite Brooks fanning the flames with outlandish trash-talk. Still, Brook's defensive ability and early years with the Memphis Grizzlies as the vocal leader showcased why he's vital for a young Rockets team to take the next step.
You get what you pay for, and the Rockets spent money on team-orientated players for an otherwise young team without an identity.
Verdict: STOCK UP
Los Angeles Clippers
"When people show you who they are, you should believe them."
Two years removed from the Los Angeles Clippers' first Western Conference Finals appearance, the little brother of Los Angeles basketball found themselves in familiar territory: going to battle without their best players.
Kawhi Leonard suffered a torn meniscus in Game 2 versus the Phoenix Suns in the 2023 opening postseason round. When Los Angeles needed its star most, Leonard's body, yet again, betrayed him. On the other hand, Paul George missed the 2023 postseason due to a knee sprain. Players don't get healthier as they age unless you're Grant Hill.
Leonard and George have played 142 games (regular season and playoffs combined) in four years of the highly-hyped duo's pairing. In turn, trading the farm for George and signing 2019 NBA Finals MVP Leonard requires no explanation. However, doubling down by betting huge on a duo not destined to work reads as a bad call.
Do they fit schematically? Undoubtedly.
But dealing in hypotheticals results from depending on George and Leonard at this point in their respective careers. Dying on hills doesn't always make you a martyr. In this case, consider the Clippers' constant dependency on its two injury-riddled stars a cautionary tale.
What did the Clippers do in the offseason to balance out the constant injuries to their superstar duo? They re-signed Russell Westbrook and flirted with a James Harden trade. Whoever the Clippers are now, it's not a championship contender with Leonard and George as the nucleus.
Verdict: STOCK DOWN
Los Angeles Lakers
Envisioning the Lakers as underdogs in 2023 is akin to NBA owners playing Robin Hood with the new CBA. It's ridiculous but true. Despite starting the season with five consecutive losses, and miraculously finishing as the seven-seed following the Play-In tournament victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Lakers earned a shocking trip to the Western Conference Finals.
Although the Lakers fell to the eventual NBA champion Nuggets in four games, any person bound to logic would say the Lakers massively overachieved with the roster presented. Los Angeles' inspiring 2022-2023 campaign was a testament to James' dedication to winning at all costs and role players buying in and performing when necessary. Despite experiencing injury woes during the season, Anthony Davis showcased why he's one of the best defensive players in the league during the 2023 postseason.
The Lakers front office returned the favor by signing Davis to a three-year $186 million extension, making for the most significant annual earnings by a player in league history. Aside from securing Davis' services for the long run, Los Angeles made many signings in free agency. No name screams underdog like Gabe Vincent. Los Angeles saw the started-from-the-bottom role player shine in the Eastern Conference playoffs as the Miami Heat made its miraculous run to the NBA Finals.
Lakers guard Austin Reaves became a household name in the playoffs, earning a long-term deal with the Lakers and a signature shoe deal in the process. Los Angeles chose to run it back with the team that brought it to the fairytale ball. For now, that seems like the right move.
Verdict: STOCK UP
Memphis Grizzlies
In the wake of Ja Morant's costly behavior, guns again found a place in the discourse of the NBA, leaving the new Nike signature star suspended for the first 25 games of the 2023-2024 season. In response, the Memphis Grizzlies sought veteran leadership at point guard. By trading for Boston Celtics fan-favorite Marcus Smart and signing Derrick Rose, Memphis instilled leadership, which the franchise desperately needs.
Brooks left for a lucrative deal in Houston, and with the plug-in of Smart, the Grizzlies probably won't miss a beat. Losing to the seven-seed Lakers exposed numerous cracks in Memphis' armor, and it will take a while for the Grizzlies to recover. Smart knows how to maneuver a locker room and inspire stars in light of his well-documented time in Boston.
More on the free agency side, Memphis signed Desmond Bane to a five-year, $197.23 million deal, allowing the Grizzlies to keep its playoff nucleus and secure the services of one of the best shooters in the league. Although he experienced lesser success in the opening postseason series versus Los Angeles, Bane's confident reputation leaves no doubt he'll bounce back for the 2023-2024 campaign.
All positive talk aside, though. Playing the first 25 games without your best player doesn't bode well for a team looking to recover from losing a playoff series to a seven-seed. Morant will likely lose out on incentives, but more importantly, cost his team a shot at starting hot.
Despite Memphis' front office making the necessary moves in the offseason, Morant's actions loom a black cloud over the franchise.
Verdict: STOCK DOWN
Minnesota Timberwolves
In hindsight and in the moment, the Minnesota Timberwolves losing in five games to the Nuggets needs no in-depth breakdown. The Nuggets were better. Minnesota, though, currently stuck in a brand of mediocrity, must leap into another realm of competition. How many more years of play-in basketball warrants nearly paying luxury tax? After going all in on Rudy Gobert, draft assets are hard to come by in Minnesota.
However, the last asset in the Timberwolves corner has quite the catch. Despite his shortcomings in the postseason, Karl Anthony-Towns is still an All-Star player. But, with the Timberwolves inching closer to luxury tax territory, with a CBA punishing of such repeated scenarios, Towns' upcoming (starts in the 2024-2025 season) four-year, $222.65 million extension will rear its head soon. Maybe not now, but at some point, if Minnesota continues its trek to mediocrity, something has to give. Anthony Edwards is the leader of the Timberwolves, regardless of Towns' longer tenure.
Regarding offseason activity, Minnesota signed a couple of backup guards and a center. Shake Milton, the standout of the free agent acquisitions, provides a guard who gets in the paint with much success, evident by the converted 68 percent of shots he made within three feet of the basket last season. As Mike Conley ages and his usage decreases, it was imperative Minnesota found a change in pace at the backup point guard position. Ultimately, signing Milton is a high-value move, as the backup guard has a knack for getting into the paint.
The Timberwolves improved by a small margin. With Edwards primed for a breakout season and presumably a healthy season of Towns, it's hard to argue the Timberwolves will be worse.
Verdict: STOCK UP
New Orleans Pelicans
Davis Griffin aided the Cleveland Cavaliers in their historic championship 2016 season as a highly-touted general manager. It's only natural for Griffin to have a spotlight as the Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations. New Orleans won the 2019 NBA lottery to heighten matters to a seismic level, booking the rights to draft the "best prospect since LeBron James" Zion Williamson.
The clock started as soon as the Pelicans drafted Williamson. Unfortunately, the clock doesn't stop for missed games due to Williams' already extensive injury history. Playing a mere 114 games in a four-season stretch warrants concern. Impressively, the Pelicans made the playoffs in 2022 without the services of Williams for the entire season. Williamson only appeared in 29 games the following season due to a hamstring tear; New Orleans earned a spot in the Play-In Tournament.
While player injuries don't ultimately fall on the front office, how executives communicate said injuries do. Griffin had seasons' worth of issues regarding miscommunication and relationship growth with his franchise's theoretical superstar. Perhaps things have changed, though. In the hotbed of basketball networking, the NBA Summer League, Griffin claimed his and Williamson's relationship is as "good as it's ever been," regardless of their tattered past.
With a specific, extremely well-documented aspect of Williamson's private life, the Duke alum and the Pelicans need on-court success to forget their past blunders. However, with little to no sign of either improving, betting on New Orleans seems costly.
Verdict: STOCK DOWN
Oklahoma City Thunder
Draft pick hoarding set up the Oklahoma City Thunder until 2029. For years, the Thunder's General Manager, Sam Presti, traded talent for future prospects to acquire a superstar possibly. Perhaps all it took was the 2019 trade with the Clippers, the same transaction that saw All-NBA Paul George shipped to Oklahoma for a package featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a franchise-altering haul of picks.
As Gilgeous-Alexander earned his first All-Star nod last season, the Las Vegas wise guys respected the All-NBA guard enough to rank him the tenth-highest MVP favorite for the 2023-2024 campaign. Although omitted from the playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander showcased a superstar-worthy campaign: 31 points average, ranked fifth in win shares (above Jayson Tatum), and the real signification of superstardom, 10.9 free throw attempts per game, more than four-time All-NBA Luka Doncic.
Bet Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP if you want an outstanding value.
Aside from MVP talk, Oklahoma City has another potential regular season award winner. Chet Holmgren (despite what Donovan Mitchell thinks of his right to win the award) is third in odds to win Rookie of the Year.
Opposing Kevin Durant in summer pickup games, last year's injury be damned, Holmgren is ready for the court, and the Thunder needs him on it for a playoff push.
Verdict: STOCK UP
Phoenix Suns
When analysts discussed Phoenix Suns' postseason performance following their loss to the eventual champion Nuggets, rarely did offense come up as a weakness. Ranked fourth in postseason offensive rating, Phoenix's attack of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant nearly pushed Denver off its championship run. However, series-wide abysmal bench production (fifteenth in bench scoring) and Deandre Ayton once again practicing his best disappearing act in Game 6 cut the Suns' playoff run short.
Instead of trading the only player who has the uncanny ability to lose the faith of a faithful man, the Suns front office opted to ditch culture-setter head coach Monty Williams, albeit for a championship defensive-minded Frank Vogel.
Ending consecutive playoff campaigns on the receiving end of blowouts, along with the smoke around Ayton, spelled the end for Williams. As Williams leaves shoes to fill as a tone-setter, Vogel's championship success and the status of a coach who helped cultivate the elite defense in Los Angeles commands respect.
Hiring a championship coach doesn't seem like a bad move. It's because it isn't.
However, trading an expiring contract for an albatross deal raises cause for concern. Going all in, like a gambler who put up their house for collateral, the Suns made a desperate move by trading for Bradley Beal. In a league heading to teams saving money due to the repeatedly mentioned CBA luxury tax stipulations, Phoenix acquired a $207.74 million deal, which has four years left. Beal hasn't made an All-Star game since 2021 - the same season he last played at least 60 games.
To the Suns' credit, the star power on their roster encouraged veteran players to sign team-friendly deals in an effort to win a ring. Eric Gordon, among the numerous players signed in free agency, leads the bench as an established veteran with the necessary playoff experience for a Suns resurgence.
While trading for Beal isn't healthy long-term for a franchise starving for gold, Phoenix did enough to stay afloat in a continually tough Western Conference.
Verdict: STOCK UP
Portland Trail Blazers
For as much bad publicity radiates from the Portland Trail Blazers organization regarding the inevitability of a Damian Lillard trade, touching on it seems dangerous due to the toxicity surrounding the discourse. However, the job can't go undone.
Although another beautiful basketball relationship will end soon, the future is bright in Portland as Scoot Henderson revs up for his rookie campaign. Whether Lillard plays in Portland for another season or not, the Oregon faithful have another player to which to cling.
However, losing an all-time great in Lillard comes with a natural setback. Portland is a lottery team, regardless of who leads the team for the 2023-2024 season.
Nothing good can come from the back and forth between Lillard and the Trail Blazers front office. It's hard to reward a franchise or player when Adam Silver had to release a one-of-a-kind press release due to the chaos surrounding Lillard's camp and Portland's new General Manager, Joe Cronin.
It's blow-up time in Portland.
Verdict: STOCK DOWN
Sacramento Kings
Hope, mostly, stems from faith, blind faith, even. However, regarding the Sacramento Kings, hope is more tangible based on their magical season, where they nearly eliminated the defending champion Warriors. Earning the second-best record in the Western Conference took the league by surprise. De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis achieved All-NBA status last season, the first Sacramento players to do so since the polarizing DeMarcus Cousins.
In an attempt to prolong the run, the Kings sought to re-sign the players who helped them return to glory. Harrison Barnes signed a three-year $54-million extension, and Sabonis a four-year $188-million (not including incentives).
Aside from tightening the Kings' corner, Sacramento's front office traded for prospect Chris Duarte, perhaps to freshen up bench scoring. However, Duarte experienced quite the sophomore slump, as the forward converted a mere .496 true shooting percentage.
Overall, the Kings had a positive offseason. Still, as the league sees them coming, surprise won't play a factor, so the Kings must keep up the intensity responsible for catapulting them into top-tier playoff seeding.
Verdict: STOCK UP
San Antonio Spurs
Let's not overthink it. The San Antonio Spurs have highly-touted Victor Wembanyama and signed Gregg Popovich to a five-year extension. A new era is upon the league, and the previously mentioned gentlemen will have a say in its architecture.
This one is easy! The Spurs may be a few years away from competing for a playoff spot but the arrow is clearly pointing up with Wemby now anchoring their franchise.
Verdict: STOCK UP
Utah Jazz
It's not just the air that's refreshing in Salt Lake City. Following the Utah Jazz's surprisingly decent 2022-2023 campaign, especially considering they won more games than projected in the preseason, Danny Ainge's new project ascends as a team to respect in the near future. Ending their season with 37 wins, as a team-orientated approach, and a first-time All-Star Lauri Markkanen as the drink stirrer, the Jazz set the tone for the future.
As history showcases, making a trade with Danny Ainge typically starts and ends with you on the wrong side of the transaction. After years of trade rumors surrounding John Collins, the Atlanta Hawks traded him in a mere salary dump transaction. The Jazz received an athletic forward with a possible resurgence, with Collins slotted in a more team-friendly system.
Although Utah's 2024 pick is top-10 protected, unless the Jazz opts to trade its core, the roster has enough talent to flirt with a play-in slot. Jazz head coach Will Hardy received praise from the media, and more importantly, last season proved he has the team's respect. Ultimately, the Jazz's offseason, in a nutshell, saw a low-risk move in acquiring Collins and kept the majority of their roster intact.
Verdict: STOCK UP
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