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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, February 15th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
If your Valentine didn't appreciate Sundays' slate of games, look for Monday as a refresher. There are seven games, and as of 1 AM EST, only the Kings and Nets game has yet to be listed. With teams like the Clippers missing key rotational pieces, the scoring for Los Angeles will be spread out amongst bench players and hopefully for a select few bettors, Marcus Morris Sr.
Even with the return of Kawhi Leonard, it's hard not to appreciate what Morris is posting off the bench. He's averaging 17 points over the past week and assuming the players in this bet are likely to change, there is much, much more to unpack from this game, especially as updates start rolling out.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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HOU @ WAS
Bradley Beal (WAS) MORE 32.5 Points - John Wall (HOU) MORE 24.5 Points
Before everyone starts to bash on the Wizards, or Celtics for that matter, take note of the Wizards season. It's been an absolute mess from the start, and despite having no players outside of Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal, they've handily beaten contending teams. The Rockets have struggled and looking at this game, there is a narrative here only Beal and Wall can contribute too. Based on everything, both players are set to be their teams leading scorer and a battle between both is exactly what everyone will be looking forward to.
Wall has shown consistency since taking the reigns of the Rockets offense, and scoring 20 is habit at this point. Since there are slight implications that Wall and Beal might want to lead their team to a win Monday night, it's easy to like both for their projected overs.
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CHI @ IND
Zach LaVine (CHI) MORE 29.5 Points - Domantas Sabonis (IND) MORE 22.5
Even against the best defenses, Zach LaVine scores with the best in the league. The Pacers won't be allowed to just throw T.J. McConnell's body at LaVine, so the idea of Indiana being able to stop LaVine is almost laughable. The best chance the Pacers have is Jeremy Lamb or Justin Holiday sacrificing every minute they play to try and keep LaVine from hitting outside shots.
For the Bulls frontcourt, it's hard to see them out rebounding someone like Domantas Sabonis, especially coming off a game where he spent most of the time frustrated or in foul trouble. The Bulls can keep the game close enough to give all the starters a full workload, so look for LaVine and Malcolm Brogdon to battle in the backcourt, while Sabonis owns the paint and puts up closer to 25 points.
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ATL @ NYK
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 27.5 Points - Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 22.5
Trae Young had a well-rounded two-game stretch last week where he struggled to score, but found other ways to be just as impactful. Right now, 28 points is too high. He's only hit that number once this month and the Knicks defense has been causing a problem for offenses all season. Young is always capable of high-scoring nights, but his recent trend just doesn't indicate anything other than more, distribution-heavy means of production.
Julius Randle without Mitchell Robinson has more responsibility on both ends of the court, and even though he has been struggling with his mid-range shot lately, there is still a reason to like his upside for 23 points. The Hawks defense relies on Clint Capela to maintain composure in the paint, but assuming Randle matches up against John Collins more than Capela, the shot attempts will be there.
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PHI @ UTA
Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 27.5 Points - Donovan Mitchell (UTA) MORE 26.5
Targeting the Jazz defense is tough to gauge, mainly because they find ways to limit players who can't create offense on their own. Joel Embiid fits the role as one of the players even Rudy Gobert can't really stop, but the other players on the 76ers will have a tougher time dealing with the Jazz defense as a whole. This matchup might favor the Jazz over the Philadelphia offense, but in terms of Embiid versus anyone on that defense, Embiid has that advantage.
It's a similar case for Donovan Mitchell facing Philadelphia's backcourt. Outside of Ben Simmons, who struggles to keep up with smaller, quicker guards, there won't be anyone to keep Mitchell from driving consistently. Even if he's not hitting shots from the outside, if this recent trend of Mitchell being the focal point of the offense continues, his shot attempts alone are enough to feel comfortable with the over.
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CLE @ GSW
Stephen Curry (GSW) MORE 30.5 Points - Collin Sexton (CLE) LESS 23.5
Collin Sexton was initially projected for 21 points before midnight, but his total is likely to keep increasing to around 24-25 points before game time rolls around. The Warriors are still giving up an excess of production to opposing guards and once again, Sexton is on the second night of a back-to-back where he struggled the first night out. He bounces back well, and seeing how many points are likely to be scored in this contest, he's not the only Cavalier, or point guard in this game with an absurd amount of upside.
Stephen Curry wasn't able to keep the Warriors last game close, but he was still able to post 27 points in the attempt. Normally, keeping the game close is the only thing that really keeps Curry from scoring below 30, so look for the Warriors and Cavaliers to engage in a battle where the shooters are doing most of the damage and everyone else just feeds rebound totals.
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MIA @ LAC
Bam Adebayo (GSW) MORE 20.5 Points - Marcus Morris Sr. (LAC) MORE 12.5
The availability of Kawhi Leonard might impact Bam Adebayo's rebounding and assist totals, but the Clippers will need to rely on the size of both Ivica Zubac and Serge Ibaka as the only way to slow the Heat down in the paint. Ibaka is more than capable, but every possession he is not being locked onto Adebayo will be noticeable. He is going to get shots off and if he can find any consistency or efficiency, Jimmy Butler will be sure to find ways to exploit the Clippers defense through the bigs.
Since Marcus Morris is playing well and averaging well above this point total, it's hard to even think about going near the under. Regardless if Leonard plays, there are few bets harder to like than Morris hitting 13 points in the amount of minutes he is getting.
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