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NBA DFS Prop Picks for 2/11/19 - Monkey Knife Fight


The Houston Rockets may have the most compelling player in the league right now, as James Harden has just taken his game to a new level. Can the Dallas Mavericks contain Harden?

After leading the league with 30.4 points per game last season, Harden has jumped up to 36.6 points per game and the recent trend is even better. Over his past 30 games, Harden is putting up 41.4 points per game. He’s doing that on 27 field goal attempts per game.

Here are some angles to consider before setting the monkeys loose tonight.

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DALLAS-HOUSTON

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OVER/UNDERS

James Harden OVER 36.5 POINTS – The Beard has scored 37 or more points in 15 of 17 home games. It’s hard to find a reasonable number that makes sense to take the under given how much he’s scoring now.

Maximilian Kleber OVER 1.5 STEALS + BLOCKS – In the past month, the Mavericks power forward has recorded multiple steals plus blocks in four of six road games and he’s getting consistent playing time, nearly 24 minutes per game over the past 15 games overall.

 

WASHINGTON-DETROIT

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OVER/UNDERS

Bradley Beal UNDER 2.5 THREES – Beal is an elite scorer, but isn’t quite as good on the road and has hit three or more threes in 11 of 28 road games.

Andre Drummond OVER 17.5 POINTS – The Pistons’ big man has scored at least 18 in four of the past five home games. He can do that again for a home game against the Wiz.

 

NEW YORK-CLEVELAND

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OVER/UNDERS

DeAndre Jordan UNDER 12.5 REBOUNDS – Jordan is averaging 12.3 rebounds in four games with the Knicks but had gone six straight games with 12 or fewer rebounds before going for 18 boards against the Raptors Saturday.

RAPID FIRE

Dennis Smith Jr. +1.5 points vs. Jordan Clarkson – Clarkson is averaging 16.8 points per game, but runs hot and cold, while Smith Jr. has averaged 19.3 points per game in his first four games with the Knicks. Good enough to take the underdog plus the points.

 

CHARLOTTE-INDIANA

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OVER/UNDERS

Bojan Bogdanovic OVER 2.5 THREES – Bojan has stepped into a bigger role with the Pacers, getting more looks offensively in the absence of Victor Oladipo and he’s on a five-game streak with at least three three-pointers.

Darren Collison OVER 5.5 ASSISTS – In the past 11 home games, Collison has recorded at least six assists seven times and finished with five in three of the four games in which he fell short.

 

BROOKLYN-TORONTO

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OVER/UNDERS

Jarrett Allen UNDER 2.5 BLOCKS + STEALS – Allen is an energy guy, but on the road he’s been hard-pressed to go for three-plus steals and blocks and the Raptors have the bigs to make life difficult for Allen.

RAPID FIRE

D'Angelo Russell +2.5 assists vs. Kyle Lowry – The overall average might be a little bit closer, but the trends have Russell moving up and Lowry moving down over the past month or so. Russell is averaging 7.2 assists per game in his past 19 games and that’s pretty solid with an extra 2.5 for being the underdog.

 

PORTLAND-OKLAHOMA CITY

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OVER/UNDERS

Russell Westbrook OVER 21.5 POINTS – In his past 14 road games, Westbrook has gone for at least 22 points seven times, finishing with 21 in three other games. He’s not efficient, by any means, but Russ will be ready to go against Damian Lillard.

RAPID FIRE

Terrance Ferguson +1.5 three-pointers vs. Damian Lillard – Over the past 15 games, Ferguson is averaging 2.8 threes while Lillard is averaging 2.3 per game. With an extra 1.5 three-pointers per game, Ferguson is the savvy play, even if he doesn’t carry the brand-name recognition.

 

L.A. CLIPPERS-MINNESOTA

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OVER/UNDERS

Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 23.5 POINTS – KAT has taken over the leadership mantle in the T-Wolves’ offense, and has scored at least 24 points in seven of his past 10 home games and eight of his past 10 games overall.

RAPID FIRE

Danilo Gallinari -0.5 three-pointers vs. Landry Shamet – If there’s one thing that Gallinari can do, it’s shoot, and he’s averaging 2.4 threes per road game. Shamet, who doesn’t get the same kind of playing time, is averaging 1.5 per game on the road.

 

MILWAUKEE-CHICAGO

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OVER/UNDERS

Lauri Markkanen OVER 2.5 THREES – There aren’t a lot of great scoring options in Chicago, so Markkanen gets his looks and has made at least three threes in five of the past six home games.

Kris Dunn OVER 6.5 ASSISTS – In eight of his past 12 home games, Dunn has recorded at least seven assists.

 

MIAMI-DENVER

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OVER/UNDERS

Nikola Jokic – The Nuggets center is a focal point of the offense and he has recorded 20-plus points in 10 of the past 12 road games.

RAPID FIRE

Nikola Jokic -2.5 assists vs. Dwyane Wade – Okay, let’s just call this a Jokic appreciation opportunity. He is averaging 7.1 assists per game on the road this year, while Wade sits at 4.3 per home game. That’s enough edge to ride with Jokic.

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