RADIO
Hi, again! Another rainy week of NASCAR led to the second Charlotte race not being run until Thursday, so the gap between Cup races this week is really small. We're heading to Bristol Motor Speedway for the Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 on Sunday. In the words of Dale Jr., "it's Bristol, baby!"
Bristol was probably my favorite track growing up. It doesn't feel the same now -- and it definitely won't feel the same without fans surrounding the track -- as the racing at Bristol isn't quite as bumpy and bangy as it was back in the early 2000s, but it's still our first chance in 2020 to see some short track racing. It's been awhile!
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)" @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Supermarket Heroes 500
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. You can also check out our YouTube video:
Matt DiBenedetto's 119.3 Driver Rating In The Last Bristol Race
Remember Matt DiBenedetto's run at Bristol last August? In an underfunded Leavine Family Racing car, DiBenedetto led 93 laps, and while he couldn't hold off a charge from Denny Hamlin, who passed him for the lead on Lap 489, the run still showed what the Burrito Man could do.
Now, he's back in a much better situation speed-wise driving the 21 car for the Wood Brothers.
Per NASCAR's Fantasy Central, DiBenedetto is 14th in early run speed and 17th in late run speed this year. Last year, he was 23rd in early run speed and 23rd in late run speed. The 21 car isn't necessarily one of the fastest rides, but it's a clear step up from what DiBenedetto was driving last season.
Why that matters here is that DiBenedetto ran a great race at this track last season despite not having the same level of speed he'll have on Sunday. So, put him out there in a better car plus give him a solid starting position of ninth and we could see DiBenedetto run up near the front for much of the day. Not a lot of room for place differential points, but for his DFS pricing, I'm willing to look beyond that.
Erik Jones Has Run Well Here
Here's something interesting: Data about Erik Jones and the percentage of laps he's run in the top 15 in various settings.
That 7000 salary is Jones's DraftKings salary, which ranks as the 20th-highest driver salary on the site this weekend. His 68 percent of laps run in the top 15 at Bristol long term ranks as the eighth-best in the Cup Series, and he starts 15th on Sunday, giving him some solid room to gain place differential points.
Jones's career history at Bristol hasn't included great finishes, as he's finished 22nd or worse in three of the last four races here. But his average finish of 16th in six Cup races here is a little misleading, as Jones consistently runs well at the track. Despite the sub-20th place finishes at both races last year, he qualified well and led a combined 33 laps. He has two top fives here, including a second place finish in 2017 when he led 260 laps. He's win twice at the track in Xfinity and had four top 10s in his six Xfinity starts.
Obviously, Jones needs to do a better job keeping the car clean and completing his solid runs at this track. But if you're looking for an underpriced option who could get up there and compete for a victory, you'd be doing yourself a disservice by not at least considering Jones.
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A Race Of Short Runs?
Out of 24 Cup Series tracks, Bristol ranks last in average green flag run percentage. We just don't get long, extended laps of racing when we're at this track.
That makes me think we should be looking towards some of the drivers who've shown good short run speed this season and at this track in the past. A few notes about that that could help identify some under-the-radar targets:
Ryan Blaney has been the fastest driver on restarts at Bristol lately and is the only driver with an average restart speed over 118 miles per hour.
Ryan Newman has been the 10th fastest driver in the Cup Series early in runs this season. Alex Bowman has been the fastest driver early in runs. Kyle Busch -- who has a history of success here -- has only been 18th in early run speed.
Daniel Suarez has had good early run speed here in the last, but in 2020 is way down in 35th in early run speed because he's driving a Gaunt Brothers car.
Christopher Bell ranks 15th this year in speed on restarts. He also starts this race way, way back in 35th. It might be a lot to ask him to keep the car clean at Bristol, but the combination of restart speed with the amount of restarts we'll see with the lack of restart speed for other drivers he'll be around early in the race could pay off into a strong DFS day for that 95 car.
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