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NASCAR! On Friday, the Truck Series ran at Michigan, with 47.7 percent of their laps coming under caution. Can Saturday's Cup Series race here -- the first of two this weekend -- be a little less caution-filled?
We'll see. We'll also see if drivers are a little more cautious in this first race to save their cars for Sunday and to avoid having to go to a back-up car and start from the back in the second race.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)": @juscarts.
NASCAR DFS Research for FireKeepers Casino 400
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups, as well as our YouTube video:
Top Fantasy Values At Michigan
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
For DraftKings, we're once again looking at some projected value for some of the mid-tier guys:
The two most notable names here are John Hunter Nemechek and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Nemechek is coming off Friday's Michigan Truck Series race, where he was racing for the win in overtime before contact with Grant Enfinger took both drivers from the top of the pack to struggling, with Enfinger falling from first to 33rd in the final two laps and Nemechek going from second to 25th.
But he showed some good knowledge of this track, and in the Cup Series, hes been improving pretty steadily, running top 20 a lot of the time lately.
As for Stenhouse, I'm less intrigued by him, but starting 32nd does leave room for place differential. He's coming off a 14th place finish, his best run since Talladega, but has been pretty hit or miss lately, so while the value is there, you might want to play him at your own risk.
Michigan Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Here are the driver ratings for the eight highest priced drivers on FanDuel:
So, the notable issue here is Christopher Bell, who has never raced at this track in Cup and who has by far the worst rating this year on correlated tracks to Michigan. That's worrisome.
Bell's past at Michigan in other series is also iffy. In two Xfinity starts here, he has an 11th and a 13th. Michigan's one of just two tracks in Xfinity where Bell's not gotten a top 10, so that's concerning! He does have a second place in Trucks here, though.
Other than Bell, the obvious takeaway is that, once again, Kevin Harvick is good somewhere. If you want someone who you can be fairly certain will have a very good race, you have to consider Harvick, even though he'll probably be fairly heavily owned.
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Track Correlations
One of my favorite parts of the Research Station is the NASCAR Track Correlation Matrix, which helps us see which tracks produce similar results.
For Michigan, there's a LOT of correlated tracks. I was surprised to actually see Auto Club was only at 89.2 percent considering both are two-mile fast ovals and I'd have assumed they had the most correlation, but Pocono, Atlanta, Vegas, Texas, Chicago, Kansas, Phoenix, and Dover are all over 90 percent.
That might be too much correlation for it to really mean anything, so let's look instead at overall performance at large, flat tracks based on driver rating.
For example, Kevin Harvick has a 119.5 driver rating at this type of track. That's 156 percent of the field average and 13 percent higher than what Harvick averages at all tracks. This is a good time to target the 4 car.
Martin Truex Jr., meanwhile, performs 13 percent worse than his average at this track type. He's still at 114 percent of the field, but there is reason to worry about Truex this week.
For some potential value, Aric Almirola is at 10 percent above his average. That could be some useful knowledge for building your DFS lineup.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
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Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan had a 60+ unit betting profit in 2024 NASCAR, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.
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