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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert MLB DFS prop picks for Tuesday, September 29th. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
Welcome to the Wildest Wild Card Round MLB has ever seen. The next week (and month) should be a very exciting one in MLB and we here at Rotoballer will provide some MKF picks to get you through the postseason.
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A couple of games we can look at today include the Yankees at Indians and Astros at Twins.
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Yankees @ Indians: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Shane Bieber less than 8.5 strikeouts and Gerrit Cole less than 8.5 strikeouts
Under most circumstances, I would go over on Shane Bieber here as he has just been an absolute machine in 2020, but the postseason is a different animal. The Yankees enter this series only striking out at a rate of 18.8% vs. right-handers, which is ranked third-best in baseball over that span. Every at-bat is going to be crucial in this game and the Yankees will certainly show patience at the plate as noted by their second-best BB rate vs. righties over the previous two weeks. The Indians also have one of the best pens in baseball, so they will not be timid about using them in the later innings, especially with a lead, as the minimal rest between games this year means starters may be asked to make quick turnarounds.
The Indians are in the same mold as the Yankees are they are only striking out at a rate of 22.3% vs. right-handers, which is ranked 11th-best over the previous two weeks. They have also been walking at a rate of 11.7%, which is third-best over the previous two weeks just behind the Yankees, so their patience at the plate should play a key role in this total. Cole has also only gone over this total in two of his previous five starts and also has an ERA of 3.67 on the road vs. a 2.09 at home this season.
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Astros @ Twins: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Kenta Maeda less than 6.5 strikeouts and Zack Greinke more than 4.5 strikeouts
While Maeda has reached this total at a frequent pace in 2020, he was facing some high strikeout teams such as the Tigers, White Sox, and Brewers. In fact, he faced one of these teams in seven of his 11 starts this season. Now, he faces an Astros team that is a veteran of the postseason and knows how to work at-bats. The Astros are also the best team in baseball over the previous two weeks in terms of strikeouts vs. right-handed pitchers as they currently boast a rate of just 16.5%. They are also walking 9.2% vs. righties over that same span, which is ranked 12th-best in baseball.
Greinke is in a good position to be able to go over this total. He has reached at least five strikeouts in eight of his 11 starts in 2020. He will also be facing a Twins team that has been striking out at a rate of 26.8% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which ranks 10th-worst in baseball. The Twins are also entering the postseason cold (by their standards) vs. righties as they are only posting a wRC+ of 90 in the last two weeks.
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