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MLB Hitter Cheat Sheet (5/3/16): Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Picks

You don't need an expert to tell you to play Josh Donaldson tonight with a weak lefty on the mound in the game with the highest implied team total. It is much more difficult, however, to sift through the cheap DFS options for the right value plays that can help you fit in the studs you want and put your lineup over the top.

That is the purpose of this article -- to provide you with the best value hitters available each day.

Today I'll be bringing you seven value hitters for MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball on FanDuel and DraftKings for May 2nd, 2016. Let's get started!
 

DFS Hitters - Lineup Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings

1. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox

FanDuel Price: $3,600, DraftKings Price: $4,100

Abreu and the White Sox will take on right-hander Steven Wright today, who boasts a career 4.17 SIERA and has pitched worse to right-handed batters than lefties. Vegas has Chicago implied for 4.2 runs, which is the eighth-most on the slate.

Similar to his counterpart Wright, Abreu posted some reverse-splits last year, hitting right-handed pitching much better than left-handed pitching. Against righties, he elevated his slugging percentage from .352 to .548, his ISO from .120 to .240, and his wOBA .288 to .384. He also posted a 33.1 percent fly-ball rate and 34.2 percent hard-hit rate against righties, which helps to explain why 27 of his 30 home runs came against right-handed pitching.

 

2. Colby Rasmus, OF, Houston Astros

FanDuel Price: $3,300, DraftKings Price: $4,400

Rasmus' Astros have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, as they take on the inexperienced righty Alex Meyers Meyer was a big prospect for the Twins, but has given up nine hits and seven runs in just 3.2 career Major League innings.

Rasmus absolutely mashes against righties, and should be all over Meyers from the get-go. He'll have plenty of opportunity to help Houston reach their lofty run projection while hitting out of the four-hole.

 

3. Lucas Duda, 1B, New York Mets

FanDuel Price: $3,200; DraftKings Price: $4,000

Duda's opponent on the mound, Matt Wisler, posted a 4.98 SIERA last season and struggles to retire left-handed hitters.

89 of Duda's 106 career home runs (including last night's) have come against right-handers, which is no surprise when you look at the underlying numbers. Duda has elevated his career hard-hit rate against righties to 38.8 percent and his fly-ball rate to 48 percent. He's also significantly lowered his strikeout rate and raised his walk rate against righties.

He is an excellent way to punt first base, while also avoiding the high ownership that will accompany some of the more expensive options.

 

4. Mitch Moreland, 1B/OF, Texas Rangers

FanDuel Price: $3,400, DraftKings Price: $3,400

I definitely prefer Moreland on FanDuel, where he is outfield eligible, but he'll likely have much lower ownership on DraftKings.

Texas squandered a terrific opportunity against R.A. Dickey last night, totaling just two runs. Moreland and the Rangers will attempt to bounce-back today against righty Marco Estrada, who posted a 4.64 SIERA last season and has struggled with lefties historically.

Moreland crushed right-handed pitching last season, elevating his slugging percentage from .387 against lefties to .528 against righties, his ISO from .142 to .234, his wOBA from .297 to .372, his hard-hit rate from 34.5 percent to 36.7 percent, and his fly-ball rate from 31.9 percent to 35.9 percent. He also cut down on his strikeout rate from 24 percent to 20.7 percent.

 

5. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers

FanDuel Price: $3,200, DraftKings Price: $3,400

Mazara was one of the few Rangers to put up numbers yesterday, launching his third home run of the year. He has a chance to build on that performance tonight against another average righty.

In his short career, Mazara has hit much better against right-handers, elevating his hard-hit rate from 16.7 percent to 27.9 percent. Obviously, those numbers came in a small sample size, but they aren't too surprising considering he is a lefty.

He also has a 7.5 percent strikeout rate and a 11.3 percent walk rate against righties, as opposed to a 33.3 percent strikeout rate and 3.3 percent walk rate against lefties. Again, these are obviously small sample sizes. The extremity of the splits are certainly telling that he hits righties quite a bit better at this point in his career.

 

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  • DFS lineup picks and cheat sheets for FanDuel and DraftKings - seven days a week
  • Three expert lineups: FanDuel, DraftKings, and Stack of the Day - seven days a week
  • Top DFS value plays, avoids and injury updates - seven days a week
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