Late-Round Running Backs Who Will Outperform ADP

August 30, 2020

Phil Clark's favorite running back sleepers to target late in your fantasy football drafts for 2020. These RBs will outperform their ADPs and are undervalued.

We are receiving encouraging signs that a safe and timely return of regular-season matchups will take place as scheduled beginning September 10. Training camps are in progress, and many of you are participating in drafts as Week 1 kickoffs approach. You will develop a strategy before you begin building each roster. But it is recommended that you remain flexible in your decision-making based upon the flow of each draft.

Your treatment of the running back position will be critical since your backs will play an integral role in determining the success of your teams. Some of you have adopted the "Robust RB" approach, and are aggressively pursuing backs during the early rounds. Other fantasy GMs might decide to select only one back during the initial rounds (Modified-Zero RB), while some of you might ignore the position completely during the first five rounds (Zero RB).

But regardless of how you construct your rosters during the early and middle rounds, the decisions that you make in the late rounds will also determine your prospects of capturing a league championship. This article will examine running backs that are being selected in Round 10 or later that should outperform their current ADPs.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals

ADP 126/RB48

Edmonds was cemented as the top recommendation in this article even before news emerged that Kenyan Drake was wearing a walking boot. Now questions surrounding Drake's health have created the potential for Edmonds’ value to ignite. He is an instinctive runner who can locate space, and generate yards after contact. He also performs in an environment that can maximize his strengths, whenever he is deployed in the backfield. This provides some homerun potential for the Cardinals while elevating Edmonds among the most viable targets once your drafts have proceeded into Round 10.

Edmonds operated in a spread formation when he performed collegiately at Fordham and accumulated 6,767 total yards during his four seasons. He also supplied glimpses of his ability to operate effectively with an expanded workload during two matchups in 2019. Edmonds burst for 68 yards on eight attempts (8.5 yards per attempt) in week 5, then exploded for 126 yards and three touchdowns in week 7.

Did you start Chase Edmonds?!

Thrice as nice for Edmonds, 3 TDs!

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/Zcoz2APvho

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 20, 2019

David Johnson was contending with an ankle injury, which could have propelled Edmonds into Arizona’s RB1 responsibilities for an extended period. But Edmonds experienced his own health issue (hamstring) in week 8, while the Cardinals also acquired Kenyan Drake from Miami in late October. The arrival of Drake created a formidable obstacle that has kept Edmonds from attaining a loftier ADP.

Drake's career resurrection has been well-documented. He averaged 19 touches and 102 total yards per game while generating eight touchdowns from weeks 9-17. He has unquestionably earned Arizona’s lead back role entering week 1. But Drake has yet to exceed 170 carries during his first four seasons and is entering uncharted territory. He must now operate with enormous expectations that include sustaining high-quality production during an entire 16-game season.

If Drake’s current situation evolves into a significant injury, then Edmonds will quickly launch from backup status into a valuable resource. This is also the case if Drake sustains any future health issues, or if he performs ineffectively during the season. Edmonds is also a versatile weapon, which could inspire Kliff Kingsbury to use him with greater frequency than what has been projected regardless of Drake’s status.

This would supply Edmonds with more opportunities to erupt for sizable yardage in a rushing attack that averaged a franchise record 5.03 yards per attempt - which ranked second only to the Ravens.

The Cardinals’ ground game ranked second in Football Outsiders’ offensive efficiency ratings (14.7%). Kingsbury also created space for Arizona’s backs by using four-receiver sets on a league-high 331 plays last season – which was 246 more than any other unit according to Football Outsiders. This underscores the advantage of selecting Edmonds as an insurance policy if Drake is on your roster. It also enhances Edmonds’ immense upside for anyone who seizes him at his ADP.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots

ADP 119/RB45

Harris generated over 3,000 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns during his four seasons with Alabama while assembling a 6.4 yards-per-carry average. He was also entrusted with more attempts than Josh Jacobs during his final season (150/120) while also leading the Crimson Tide in yardage (876). Harris displayed the ability to accrue yardage as an inside runner, generate yards after contact, and function effectively as a receiver. New England was compelled to invest a third-round pick on the 5’11”, 215-pound Harris which made him the sixth back to be selected during the 2019 NFL draft.

But he was a non-entity within the Patriots’ backfield rotation last season while being limited to a minuscule 12 yards on four carries. Sony Michel operated as the primary rusher while finishing ninth overall in attempts (247). James White commandeered responsibilities as the team’s receiving back for the fourth consecutive year (95 targets/72 receptions/645 yards), while Rex Burkhead was also involved in the touch distribution (65 carries/27 receptions).

Michel largely provided disappointment during his second season, while experiencing a decline in both yards per attempt (4.5/3.7) and yards per game (71.6/57). He finished just 17^th in rushing despite the favorable number of attempts and ranked a lowly 26th in PFF’s ranking of the 32 starting backs. Michel’s inefficiency appeared to supply Harris with a path toward fantasy relevance this season, while his ongoing recovery from foot surgery had enlarged it considerably.

Michel is no longer on the PUP list and has returned to practice. But his ability to regain his previous role remains uncertain. Michel's absence had allowed Harris to procure a massive workload during camp. His performance had been labeled as impressive, which could propel Harris to an expanded role. The Patriots have also signed Lamar Miller, although the former Texan is still recovering from the torn ACL that he encountered last August.

Harris is currently available until Round 12 of most drafts. You may be skeptical that Harris can retain a sizable workload after Michel regains his health. But Michel’s performances have been consistently underwhelming. This improves Harris’ prospects for obtaining an ongoing role while elevating him among the most enticing late-round targets.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers

ADP 136/RB50

Arguably the most shocking development during last April’s NFL Draft occurred when Green Bay decision-makers Matt LaFleur and Brian Gutekunst eschewed the selection of a wide receiver.  The ramifications for Aaron Rodgers and the continued shortage of enticing weaponry (beyond Davante Adams) have been widely discussed. The Packers’ eventual draft results also provided a clear indication that the team is shifting its strategic approach.

Gutekunst and LaFleur secured Dillon with the 62^nd overall pick, which has injected the 6’0”, 250-pound rookie into a backfield blend that also includes Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. The tandem of fourth-year backs combined for over 98% of the attempts that were designated to the position last season. But the addition of Dillon will alter the touch distribution, and his role will prevent Jones and Williams from matching last year's touch totals.

Jones entered 2019 with 214 career carries. But he was allotted a career-high 236 and responded by eclipsing 1,000 yards for the first time during his four seasons. Jones also established new career bests in targets (68), receptions (49), and receiving yards (474), tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns (16) and finished third in point per game scoring. But none of these numbers deterred LaFleur and Gutekunst from making the Round 2 investment in Dillon.

He accumulated 845 rushing attempts during his three seasons at Boston College, while also accruing 4,382 rushing yards, and generating 38 touchdowns. Dillon was third overall in attempts during 2019 (318) and also finished fifth in rushing yardage (1,685/129.6 per game).

NFL peeps just now learning about the physical prowess of AJ Dillon. Meanwhile, Louisville and CFB fans been woke to?AJD?since 2017

pic.twitter.com/RTJHrFtoEr

— Nate Marchese (@CFFNate) August 18, 2020

Dillon's arrival has impacted Jones’ ADP during the past four months, although Dillon looms as a greater threat to Jamaal Williams’ workload. His size might create the misconception that he is slow. But he does combine adequate speed (4-53 in the 40) with his ability to produce yardage both inside and after contact. Dillon is not a candidate to function in a three-down capacity, but he should minimally earn short-yardage and goal-line responsibilities - even if he shares red zone carries with Jones. This should motivate you to include him among your targets in Round 12.

Joshua Kelly, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP 187/RB60

The offseason conversation regarding LA's backfield has focused primarily on Austin Ekeler’s workload, due to an impending transformation of the Chargers' offense. He remains entrenched as the team’s primary back after finishing at RB4 in PPR scoring while leading all runners in receiving touchdowns (8), yards per reception (10.8), and yards per target (9.2) during 2019. He also finished second in targets (108), receptions (92), receiving yards (993), and yards after catch (940).

He should sustain his responsibilities as LA’s pass-catching weapon from the backfield. But the Chargers will be distributing rushing attempts between multiple backs. Kelly and former seventh-round pick Justin Jackson are both candidates to garner carries that are not designated for Ekeler. However, uncertainty currently exists regarding which backup will ultimately confiscate the most sizable role within LA’s backfield.

Jackson joined Ekeler in commandeering first-team reps at the onset of training camp. However, Kelly is overcoming the constraints of a limited offseason and has quickly ascended into his own involvement with the starters. Kelly ran for 2,303 yards and 24 touchdowns in two years at UCLA while becoming the eighth Bruin to register consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons. He also provides a physical presence that should eventually launch him above Jackson on LA's depth chart.

rook comin' through ?@SmoothplayJK | #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/VpID9O4fMa

— Los Angeles Chargers (@Chargers) August 19, 2020

Jackson was involved in 29.6% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps from weeks 1-3 while averaging six attempts per game. However, he also missed nine contests with multiple issues (calf/hamstring). Melvin Gordon also reemerged from his ill-fated holdout to perform on 66% of the snaps and average 13.5 attempts per game.

The Chargers increased their emphasis on the ground game from 20 attempts per game to 26 per game after offensive coordinator Shane Steichen replaced Ken Whisenhunt as the play-caller from weeks 9-17. The Chargers can be expected to continue that increased reliance on the ground game, which bodes well for Kelly.

L.A. opted to deploy a fourth-round pick on the 5’11”, 215-pound rookie, who appears destined to capture a weekly role as the team’s power back. This could include responsibilities in short-yardage and red zone carries, which should eventually result in a respectable workload. That presents you with the opportunity to capitalize on his Round 16 ADP.

Darrel Williams / DeAndre Washington, Kansas City Chiefs

ADP 246/RB 72 - ADP 163/RB54 

While Clyde Edwards-Helaire has commandeered lead back duties with the Chiefs, the touch distribution for Kansas City's other backs could fluctuate during the season,  But that should not discourage you from using a late-round selection on Williams or Washington.

Washington and Jalen Richard both joined the Raiders in 2016, as Washington was selected 143rd overall, while Richard was signed as an undrafted free agent. Both backs accumulated similar usage and overall production during their four seasons with the team. Washington accrued more rushing attempts (282/233). But Richard generated more rushing yardage (1.170/1,122), and led the tandem in targets (199/110), receptions (160/88), and receiving yards (1,380/613).

Washington did establish new career highs in receptions (36) and receiving yards (292) during 2019. He also assembled 215 rushing yards (71.6 per game), averaged 6.3 targets per game, and amassed 119 yards as a receiver during the three games that Josh Jacobs missed in December. However, Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock opted to extend Richard’s contract for an additional two years in February, while Washington was released.

This Raiders’ decision to keep Richard rather than Washington could have a significant impact on Washington’s career. When Kansas City signed Washington in April, he was joining a highly congested backfield that already included Damien Williams, Darrel Williams, and Darwin Thompson. When the Chiefs selected Edwards-Helaire in Round 1 of the NFL Draft, that pushed Washington even further from relevancy. But when Damien Williams elected to opt-out of the 2020 season, the landscape of KC’s backfield was altered.

Starting to think DeAndre Washington (71 receptions in 2 years while playing with Mahomes at Texas Tech) might play a little more in 2020 than we are projecting. He really shouldn't be going that much later than Antonio Gibson. pic.twitter.com/y48P4hU2DE

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) August 17, 2020

Washington’s versatility should keep him involved in Andy Reid’s attack. He also collected 124 receptions for 1,091 yards during four seasons at Texas Tech. That includes the 20 games in which he was operating with  Patrick Mahomes under center.

However, Williams appears primed to begin the season as the direct backup to Edwards-Helaire. He performed on 267 snaps last season (25%) while accruing 141 yards on 41 carries (3.4 yards per attempt). That did include a career-high 62 yards on nine carries in Week 3. Williams has generated 185 yards on the ground in two seasons with Kansas City while collecting 18 receptions for 194 yards. He is familiar with Reid's offense, and the Chiefs' offensive decision-makers are comfortable with his abilities as a runner, receiver, and pass-blocker.

Even if Williams secures a larger role than Washington to begin the season, the belief from here is that Washington will ultimately secure the most sizable workload. However, both backs are viable late-round fliers. They are components in KC’s high-octane attack and will be schematically placed in a position to generate huge gains whenever they are on the field.

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