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Analysis of five fantasy baseball outfielders drafted in the later rounds. Are these OF undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some late-round outfielders for you to consider. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
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Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee Brewers
Cain followed up a career year in 2018 with one of his worst campaigns in 2019. The veteran slashed .260/.325/.417 with 11 homers and 18 steals (eight CS) in a season that concluded with him losing his customary leadoff spot to the since-traded Trent Grisham. Ageism is a prevalent trend among the fantasy community, so the down year is enough for many to write the now 34-year-old off. However, there may still be something here. He underachieved his career BABIP by 38 points (.339 vs. .301) despite nearly duplicating his 2018 contact quality. For example, Cain's average airborne exit velocity was 91.6 mph in 2019 versus 91 in 2018.
Cain's sprint speed declined more noticeably (27.8 ft./sec vs. 28.6), but he still had the athleticism required to be one of the finest fielders in the game (14 Outs Above Average, 3rd among all MLB outfielders). Baseball Savant's xStats say that Cain deserved a .290 batting average in 2019, a number that would easily make him an asset in the category. Getting on base more often could also help him reclaim his leadoff spot and steal more bases, though his days of being an absolute speed merchant are probably over. Still, a .290 AVG with 20 steals and a bunch of runs scored seems like a great investment on an ADP of 186.52. It's not sexy, but it's profit.
Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals
In 2019, a healthy Eaton hit .279/.365/.428 with 15 home runs, 15 steals, 103 runs scored and 49 driven in—nothing spectacular, but useful in four categories. He played in 151 games after combining for just 118 in his first two years in Washington. That was preceded by 153 and 157 games in his last two years in Chicago, however, so injury concerns are somewhat overblown.
It's also worth noting that Eaton joined the launch angle club in 2019, averaging 13.2 degrees after staying between 3.4 and 7.2 from 2015-18. And the change did help: He gained 17 points of slugging compared to 2018 and 36 points of xSLG despite his typically below average 86.6 mph exit velocity. His plate discipline and batting average (.277 xBA) remained strong as well. So, while it's too much to ask Eaton to start hitting the ball harder after five straight years between 85.8 and 86.9 mph exit velocities, he should be able to duplicate his across-the-board solidity in 2020.
What draft price should you expect to pay for a .280 average, 15-15 season, and 100 runs? Eaton can be had cheaply with his 206 ADP, and he's a safer bet from a performance standpoint than several of the outfielders being taken just ahead of or near him. If you're in a five-OF league and need a solid floor, or a decent batting average and some steals, you can be more aggressive than his ADP.
Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies
McCutchen was putting together a fine 2019 campaign before an ACL tear in June put an abrupt end to his first season in Philadelphia. In 59 games, the former NL MVP slashed .256/.378/.457 with 10 HR, 45 R, 29 RBI, and two SB as the everyday leadoff hitter for the Phillies. McCutchen settled into his role atop the lineup with tremendous plate discipline metrics, establishing new career highs in walk rate (16.4%) and O-Swing% (17.7%), both numbers that led all NL hitters before his injury. Other than a more patient approach, he hovered around his lifetime marks with a 40.9% Hard Hit% and 90.6 MPH Exit Velocity, which is nothing mind-bending but numbers that put him well above the league average.
Other than Bryce Harper, McCutchen has the best on-base ability on the team and is poised to return to the leadoff spot for the Phillies under new manager Joe Girardi in 2020. Last year was the first time all decade that McCutchen played fewer than 146 games, so the injury shouldn't deter us from calling his name in drafts (ADP 212). He's certainly not the perennial All-Star he once was, but the 33-year-old can still post commendable counting stats that can play as a third or fourth outfield option.
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
Reynolds came out of nowhere to post a fantastic rookie season in 2019, slashing .314/.377/.503 with 16 HR for the Pirates on the strength of a .387 BABIP. Fantasy owners don't seem to be buying the performance at all (200.11 ADP), but his regression shouldn't be as bad as you might think. The 25-year-old brings above-average foot speed (28.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint), average airborne contact quality (92.5 mph), and above-average velocity on ground balls (87.5 mph) to the table, leading Baseball Savant to say that he deserved a batting average of .296 last year.
Reynolds' rate of Brls/BBE (6.7%) was hamstrung by a low 29.8 FB%, but his 45.9 FB% at Triple-A last year suggests that improvement could be forthcoming. Reynolds doesn't strike out that often (22.2 K%) and projects to hit first or second for Pittsburgh in 2020, further suggesting that he'll have the counting stats to give his batting average some juice. All told, Reynolds is probably a .300 hitter who won't kill you in other categories: a stat line that can be tough to find once 200 players leave the board.
Randal Grichuk, Toronto Blue Jays
Grichuk has flaws, but he's a relatively inexpensive source of power who had a career high in home runs (31), RBI (80), and at-bats (586) in 2019. He doesn't walk enough (5.6% BB rate) and strikes out too much (26.0% K rate), and that undisciplined approach, coupled with a career-low .266 batting average on balls in play, contributed to a career-low .232 batting average last season. The issue of plate discipline isn't likely to go away, and that has a negative impact on his batting average. However, Grichuk could get better results on balls in play, which could at least result in some improvement in that category. That will require better quality contact because last season's 8.5 barrel% was a career-low and well below Grichuk's career mark of 12.6%.
The main reason for the increase in Grichuk's power numbers last season was that he was given a chance as an everyday player, which makes him more valuable. He also plays in a hitter-friendly park and typically hits in the middle of a productive young lineup. Grichuk is a notoriously slow starter throughout his career, with a .716 OPS in the first half and .843 OPS in the second half. You'll need a fair amount of patience to own him. Ultimately his power numbers make him worth a look after the first 250 names are off the board.
