Late-Round Fliers and Fantasy Baseball Lotto Tickets: Upside Hitter and Pitcher Value Picks

February 12, 2026

Nick Mariano's 2026 fantasy baseball late-round draft fliers and lotto tickets. His favorite upside fantasy baseball sleepers and values to target late in drafts.

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Much is made about your first few picks, with screenshots of those original five picks setting social media alight, but we can't pass up the value found with a good run of late-round lotto tickets! This exercise sets out to identify players with 12-team appeal that tend to be around in the final rounds.

There's going to be some crossover between "fliers" and "sleepers," but the idea that you are winning with late picks persists. For my articles, a sleeper tends to be one that you hold more belief in, while fliers should give us early indicators to judge whether they're holds or our drop for early waiver priorities.

This could take the form of spring training reps or proving their health throughout February and March. It's all relative, so you must go into this with your league's parameters in mind as we aim for a minimum ADP of around 200 according to consensus ADP data from ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTS, and NFBC.

Late-Round Draft Fliers - Hitters

Catcher: Kyle Teel (C14, CHW) – ADP: 211

After a strong .886 OPS shown over 50 Triple-A games for the White Sox, Teel was promoted only to hit .232 with a .290 slugging percentage over 87 plate appearances. He did prove to have an MLB-caliber eye, logging a 16% walk rate in that span for a .372 on-base percentage. The youngster rebounded with a .288/.376/.457 over 210 PAs after the All-Star break.

He also posted 12 steals in 112 minor-league games for the Red Sox in 2024, which he followed up with seven swipes in those 50 games for the White Sox before the call-up. This led to going 3-for-4 on attempts in the majors, which has room to grow with experience. The tools are clearly there.

Teel has defensive work to do, though they appear to have both C and designated hitter spots for Teel, Edgar Quero, and Korey Lee. Take some of April and see how often they work Teel’s bat into the lineup, and how he performs (of course).

First Base: Jac Caglianone (1B23, KC) – ADP: 234 / Bryce Eldridge (1B35, SF) - ADP: 319

Caglianone’s red-hot ascension at Double-A and Triple-A (.337/.408/.617 with 20 HRs through 66 games) ran into a brick wall upon reaching the majors. The star rookie ran an icy .172 BABIP en route to a miserable .157/.237/.295 slash line, but the .237 xBA and .431 xSLG were more forgiving.

He also hit the IL with a hamstring strain in late July and got the rest of August to reset at Triple-A after the tough-luck start (he hit .385 with five HRs and five doubles in 16 games there). The guy even had to make history just to clear the fence for the first time!

Jac Caglianone crushed the highest pitch a player has hit for his first career home run in the Statcast Era (since 2015).

(MLB x @GoogleCloud) pic.twitter.com/WomUaKYaEC

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 20, 2025

Even with the rotten luck, Cags generated a 12% barrel rate and flashed a top 10% maximum exit velocity of 114.1 mph. Of 348 batters with at least 200 PAs, Caglianone held a top 50 EV50 rate (102.9 mph), the seventh-fastest bat speed (77.4), and had the largest negative gap between his BA - xBA (80 points) and SLG - xSLG (136). Brutal.

He and Nick Kurtz had drastically different rookie experiences after crushing the minors, as the Athletic phenom is a second-round pick, and here we are in the 200s. I’m not writing off the Kansas City top prospect after a relatively short period of turbulence, especially with Kauffman Stadium’s walls coming in.

Second Base: Matt McLain (2B19, CIN) - ADP: 223

McLain couldn’t build on the lightning shown in 2023 due to a labrum injury in his left shoulder that required surgery and a stress reaction in his rib cage tanking 2024. The .864 OPS with 16 HRs and 14 SBs in 89 games as a rookie turned into an ugly .643 OPS with 15 HRs and 18 SBs in 147 games.

The groundball rate remained steady, but seven percentage points were siphoned from hearty line drives into fly balls. The BABIP subsequently tumbled from .385 in ‘23 to .292. But I’m not going to be put off by a power-speed prospect in the friendly confines of Great American Ball Park after one down year following a major injury.

Third Base: Royce Lewis (3B19, MIN) - ADP: 210

Lewis battled the usual health issues while hitting 13 HRs with 12 steals over 106 games after not attempting a single swipe in 2024. It gets even more time-sensitive, however. Not one of those steal attempts came before the All-Star break, either. He did all of that, as well as hitting 11 of those 13 dingers in those 63 games.

All told, Lewis was effectively on pace for a 30/30 campaign over a full 162 at that rate. But you know we haven’t seen anything close to that out of Lewis…yet. The improved second half only came after a pair of left hamstring strains ruined the first.

Back in early July, per the Star Tribune, Lewis said how he “didn’t realize how much injuries have taken a toll on [his] body.” That his swing looked different, observing how he’s “compensating for something.” Seeing that he found his way and got the swing back on track, sprinkling in double-digit steals to boot, is a tidy green flag.

Shortstop: Jett Williams (SS46, MIL) - ADP: 500

Milwaukee just traded Caleb Durbin to Boston alongside two other infielders, which means the Brewers have a chance to pivot to Williams, whom they acquired from the Mets for Freddy Peralta. Following the deal, Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold said that Williams would receive some third-base work this spring.

It’s possible that this is all part of a master plan, at least until Jesus Made is ready. Williams was the 14th overall pick in the 2022 Draft and turned 130 games into 17 HRs, 34 SBs, and a .261/.363/.465 slash line. He packs a punch in the 5-foot-7 frame, though we won’t go hoping for 25-plus longballs here.

The prospect now has a shorter avenue to playing time in the infield following the Durbin trade, but he can also play center field. We’ll see if his versatile skill set can be of use sooner rather than later, giving fantasy managers a nice speed boost with modest pop and electricity along the way.

Jett Williams is a fun target in deeper formats.

- Above-average contact/approach
- 25+ SB potential
- Enough power for 10+ HR
- Fairly clear path to PT at either SS or 3B

NFBC ADP (Last 30 Days): 517.3 #FantasyBaseballpic.twitter.com/5hld1u21JK

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 10, 2026

Outfield: Adolis Garcia (OF62, PHI) - ADP: 233

Poised to move on from Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia signed Adolis Garcia to a one-year deal worth $10 million in December. The fantasy heights reached by Garcia in 2021-23 are behind us, though he’s still averaged 22 HRs with 12 SBs as the average has dropped toward .225.

There were a few positive indicators under the surface in terms of his 2025 versus ‘24, such as a rebound against fastballs. If a power-heavy bat can’t perform against the heat, then we’re moving on. But he delivered a +2 run value against four-seamers (.247 AVG) after dropping to -14 (.184 AVG) the year before.

And while Texas’ Globe Life Field was healthy for right-handed power, few other Statcast Park Factors were above-average, ranking 25th out of 28 venues across a three-year rolling mark. Citizens Bank Park is no Coors Field, but it represents an upgrade to “neutral” for Garcia. Philly also scored nearly 100 more runs than the Rangers last year.

Let’s see if a change of scene and coaching staff can reignite the veteran. Even batting lower in the order, like sixth, is okay with such a late investment. He shouldn’t go far due to most of the Phillie sluggers swinging lefty, and a hot stick could leapfrog him over Alec Bohm into the cleanup role. This is what fliers are made of.

Outfield: Chase DeLauter (OF75, CLE) – ADP: 305

DeLauter is one of Cleveland’s best prospects and should enjoy the inside track to starting in center field. His minor-league stats won’t blow your mind (.852 OPS, 7 HRs in 42 games last year), but he’s perpetually rehabbing and recovering ever since a broken left foot suffered while running the bases in college. He reinjured the foot after being drafted and then broke it again in April 2024.

He seemed to finally put that behind him last year, only to suffer the dreaded hamate fracture on a fluke hit-by-pitch. Between a disjointed 138 games over three years in the minors, DeLauter owns a .302/.384/.504 triple slash and has not shrunk as he’s risen through the system.

Most scouting reports have him as a threat against all pitchers in the batter’s box, utilizing plus discipline and a quick bat with power from his 6-foot-3 frame to overcome what many paint as an unorthodox swing mechanic. Given the foot history, it shouldn’t surprise you that he’s only stolen eight bases thus far. Perhaps confidence while running will return, but we won’t bank on it.

Outfield: Cam Smith (OF88, HOU) - ADP: 345

Hey, would you look at that? Another prospect that everyone was fighting each other over going into last year’s drafts, who has been largely cast aside for the next wave. Baseball card collectors are fully aware of how prices drop once the next year’s Bowman set drops, and everyone flocks to the shiny new toys.

Smith turns 23 on February 22 and played in only 32 professional ballgames prior to breaking camp with the Astros last year. He was understandably cold to start, hitting .213 with a 29.4% strikeout rate through April. But then the Ks dropped toward 25%, and he hit over .300 in both May and June. The first-half 116 wRC+ was solid for such a green rookie!

The second half was a disaster, of course. He got shackled to a .489 OPS and likely ran out of steam when faced with a full MLB season at such a young age. Another year of physical growth should not only yield more endurance, but more of those doubles should clear the fence.

Late-Round Draft Fliers - Pitchers

Pitcher: Ryan Weathers (SP87, NYY) – ADP: 285

Weathers now finds himself in the Bronx following a January trade. We’re here to hope that Matt Blake can help the southpaw adjust his mechanics to help handle his newfound velocity that we all loved going into last season. He’s reportedly encouraging more sinkers and fewer fastballs, while Weathers is working to improve conditioning for his lat and back.

After his fourth spring outing, he was diagnosed with a left flexor muscle strain and was shelved until mid-May. Then he averaged over 97 mph in his first few starts of 2025, and we were back!

But June 7 saw him get beamed by his catcher on a warm-up throw to second base and then suffer diminished velocity with a severe lat strain that caused him to miss another three months. His velocity was down a full tick to mid-96 in September.

The AL East is no walk in the park, and Yankee Stadium can be cruel, but the team also provides more wins and bullpen support than Miami can. He will need to perform if the rotation's health holds up as Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon work into the fold.

Ryan Weathers was one of just 9 starters last year with 60-grade stuff and a walk rate below 8%.

Pretty good company. https://t.co/Qn5rVPJipQ pic.twitter.com/PJ0xzZk2EU

— . (@HalToHell) January 14, 2026

Pitcher: Logan Henderson (SP92, MIL) – ADP: 293

The spotlight was commanded by Jacob Misiorowski en route to the All-Star Game, but Henderson’s abbreviated five-start show provided a 3-0 record with a 33.3% K rate, 1.78 ERA (3.02 FIP), and 0.99 WHIP. A right flexor strain halted things in August, which harkens to a right elbow issue suffered in 2022.

I understand that 25 ⅓ IP is a low threshold, though his 25.3% K-BB rate ranked 12th among the 230 pitchers who surpassed 25 frames. We’re hoping that a healthy offseason has given him time to come up with a third pitch to go with the stellar fastball-changeup combo, as well as build up endurance.

Let others speculate on what Misiorowski could become, or if Brandon Woodruff can stay healthy. Heck, even Quinn Priester is going to get attention after last year's spree. Perhaps Henderson can follow with an All-Star bid of his own!

Pitcher: Thomas White (SP129, MIA) - ADP: 405

The 21-year-old southpaw will head to spring training with the big-leaguers, hoping to illustrate that his command is ready for the highest level. Equipped with three plus pitches (fastball, slider, changeup), White diced up minor-leaguers last year, logging 145 Ks in 89 ⅔ IP as he rose to Triple-A.

But it came with a 47% first-strike rate and 13.6% walk rate, leaving the whiffs to clean up after the mess made by free passes. It’s a mighty double-edged sword to wield, and MLB hitters are far more patient. But I’m happy to invest in raw talent and await refinement or opportunity. Nearly all of Miami’s projected rotation has a major injury on its ledger over the last few years.

Relief Pitchers:
Kirby Yates (RP 42, LAA) - ADP 361
Clayton Beeter (RP 61, WAS) – ADP 422
Andrew Kittredge (RP 83, BAL) - ADP 514
Josh White (RP 140, MIA) - ADP 745

Don't look now, but Yates had a 2.95 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 31:5 K:BB in 18 1/3 IP before his hamstring gave out. That 41.3% K rate was second-best, and if you go from the beginning of 2024 to that injury date, Yates’ 1.58 ERA trails only Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith among the 202 RPs with at least 50 IP.

Turning 39 means I can't sit here and suddenly be optimistic about his health after last year's turbulence, but this is why he's a flier! The Angels have an open-ended situation, so you should try to be on Yates or Robert Stephenson.

Beeter stepped up his game after being traded from the Yankees to the Nationals, who saw fit to lean into his slidepiece and give him leverage slots down the stretch.

He started out with a 70/30 fastball/slider split, and then that evened out to a 57/43 ratio in August (32% K rate). He then further increased the sliders to a 57% rate in September, which fueled the fourth-best strikeout rate (45%) out of 123 RPs with 10 or more innings in the final month.

The guy can be a WHIP liability due to the control seizing up at times, and I definitely want to see another pitch to overcome lefty-swinging bats, but you don't have a late-season surge like that with nothing in the tank. Let's find out what's real.

Kittredge posted a 3.06 ERA/0.98 WHIP with 64 strikeouts, five saves, and 15 holds over 53 total innings between Baltimore and the Cubs. It was in Chicago where he found a little more velocity, logging a 35.4% K-BB rate that trailed only Mason Miller (42.2%) and Cade Smith (36.3%) of RPs with 10 or more innings from August 1 on.

And then there's White, who crushed up to Triple-A last year to the tune of a 10-1 record, a 1.86 ERA (1.65 FIP), 0.92 WHIP, and 40.8% K rate. That was good for second best in the minors, and his superior control meant that no one had a better K-BB rate. (He just edged out Chase Burns.)

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