X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Jimmy Nelson - What's Brewing After a Year-Long Absence?

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher (SP) Jimmy Nelson is an undervalued fantasy baseball asset after missing the entire 2018 season. Riley Mrack evaluates Nelson to see if he can be a comeback player to target on draft day.

If you’re an advocate to abolish pitchers hitting in the National League, you might use Jimmy Nelson as a prime example. During a breakout season in 2017, Nelson slid into first base during his September 8 start, jamming his throwing shoulder. Diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain and partial anterior labrum tear, Nelson was put on the operating table to undergo surgery. It was a devastating blow to a Milwaukee Brewers team trying to win the NL Central division, which they ultimately lost, but it was a more significant blow to Nelson’s career.

Still recovering from surgery, Nelson was held out of the entire 2018 campaign as the team proceeded with caution with their prized hurler. For a player entering his prime years, this kind of injury derailment is not only frustrating, but it’s a big cease in momentum that Nelson was going to carry in as a 28-year-old for a contending team.

Posting a career year in 2017, the right-hander took massive steps forward in many areas to solidify himself as an ace for the Brewers. He ended the season going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 199 strikeouts in 175.1 innings. Not only were these stellar numbers compared to his previous two full seasons, but there was also plenty under the surface that suggested Nelson got robbed of more than an abrupt end to his season. Almost a forgotten name in early fantasy drafts, let’s rewind to 2017 and remind ourselves of the impressive season that Nelson delivered to see if he can bring value in 2019.

 

Strikeout Surge

Entering his third full season, Nelson honed in on his craft and saw far superior results than ever before. Utilizing a four-pitch arsenal, he features the four-seam, sinker, slider and curve. He shattered his previous season’s work as a strikeout arm with his 27.3% K%, which was nearly 10% higher than his 2016 total. These stats might make you raise an eyebrow, so we must dig in to determine how this happened.

Nelson changed up his approach a little bit in 2017. Instead of relying on the sinker to get the majority of his outs, he went to the curveball more. He threw the sinker 46.8% of the time in 2016, dialing it down to a 34.9% mark in 2017, while his curveball percentage went up over 7% to 19.9%. He used this pitch to be effective against left-handers and it worked. Lefties only hit .183 off this pitch; his strikeout numbers against LHB skyrocketed from 16.2% to a whopping 30.2%.

A weapon Nelson carried over from 2016 was his slider, which was his best pitch regarding swing-and-miss ability. Generating a 34.2% Whiff/Swing, he used this more frequently against right-handers, especially as his punch-out machine, going to it 35% of the time when he was ahead in the count.

Nelson also increased his velocity on his four-seamer by half a percent up to 94.6 MPH. Not a dramatic increase but enough to get his WHIFF% to jump from 9.75% to 13.53%. This swing-and-miss ability likely went up due to keeping hitters off-balance with his two breaking pitches. Holding the slider and curve in his back pocket, it was easier for him to blow a fastball by a batter when they thought a breaking ball was coming. Having a complete arsenal like Nelson did in 2017 is a terrific recipe for strikeout success and it's imperative that he keeps up this method of attack for his impending fantasy value.

 

Batted Ball Beast

The Brewers ace had an unusually high BABIP in 2017. In 2016, his mark was .299, a league average number, but it shot up to an odd .340 despite having his lowest Barrel% (4.0%) and exit velocity (85.3%) of his career. His BABIP put him as the second-highest number next to the soft-throwing Clayton Richard. Nelson has always been a groundball machine, but in 2017 he stepped it up a notch. Utilizing his sinker to perfection, his career 1.67 GB/FB seen improvement in 2017 with a 1.84 mark, good enough for a top-seven finish. While it is true that groundball pitchers tend to have a higher BABIP than fly ball pitchers, the .340 hit against him was still way too high.

Given his top-five soft contact rate (22.3%), it was extremely unlucky that he gave up as many hits as he did two years ago. Statcast also agreed, putting his expected batting average at .236, over 20 points lower than his batting average against (.257). Going hand-in-hand with his inflated BAA was his ERA. Nelson had an xFIP of 3.15 and a FIP of 3.05, much lower than his 3.49 ERA. These low peripheral numbers are likely attributed to the Brewers defensive woes that season. The Brew Crew had the second-most errors in 2017 with only 22 defensive runs saved. It would have been interesting to see what Nelson could have done with Milwaukee’s much-improved defense in 2018, which had a mammoth 116 DRS.

Nelson’s soft contact and groundball tendencies also helped him improve on keeping the ball in the ballpark. Pitching in hitter-friendly Miller Park is no easy task, but he actually fared better at home in this regard. His 0.57 HR/9 was nearly twice as good as his 1.12 road split, and his combined 12.6% HR/FB was a slight improvement on his 14.5% mark in 2016.

 

What Looms In 2019?

After a year and a half since the shoulder procedure, Nelson is on track to be ready for spring training. The good news regarding his shoulder injury was that he hurt himself being a baserunner, not a pitcher. If he had gotten hurt on the mound, it would be much more concerning moving forward. Nelson has had a strong bill of health his entire career, the only other time he’s landed on the disabled list was when he took a line drive off his head in September of 2015.

It’s no guarantee that Nelson will return to his All-Star caliber production in 2017. It would be naive to think that there would be no rust to shake off after more than a full-year absence from the majors. The truth is we don't know what we're going to get out of the now 29-year old. What we do know is that Nelson has had success before and knows what it takes to get both strikeouts and batted ball outs. The most important thing to watch for in spring training is how good his breaking pitches are, as that's the key to his strikeout success and where a lot of his fantasy value will be. An elbow injury would have more of an effect on this ability, but seeing how it's his shoulder recovering, it should be less of an issue.

As of now, it's his rotation spot to lose, but keep in mind the Brewers will likely keep his innings in check. With Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee has a plethora of alternatives for Nelson in the rotation, so they can afford to take it slow with their former star pitcher. It is foreseeable that he’ll be skipped in the rotation every once in a while to keep him fully healthy, especially if the team is in line for another playoff run. If Nelson can channel his 2017 form, he’ll be a steal at his current ADP of 267 even with limited innings. It’s a low-risk gamble but one that can pay off handsomely in the late rounds of your draft.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP