X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

James Paxton to The Yankees - Fantasy Impact

Chris Zolli reviews the trade of starting pitcher (SP) James Paxton and his impact on the 2019 New York Yankees. He will also look at the impact on the Mariners for 2019 and the future.

The first major move of the 2018 MLB offseason was made on Monday night, as the Seattle Mariners sent James Paxton to the New York Yankees for Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, and Dom Thompson-Williams.

By trading Paxton, the Mariners got a top-50 prospect in the lefty Sheffield, a controllable arm in the righty Swanson, and an athletic player in Thompson-Williams, but the Yankees got a second legitimate flamethrower behind Luis Severino. Even though Paxton has never thrown more than 160 innings in a season, his performance over the last three seasons puts him among the top left-handed pitchers in the game.

With Paxton headed to the Bronx and a top prospect on the move to the Pacific Northwest, what is the impact of this trade on the Mariners and Yankees?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

What Impact Will Paxton Have In Pinstripes?

With the World Series champion Red Sox possessing Chris Sale and David Price, the Astros with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, and the Indians (for the time being) with Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber, the Yankees knew they needed to add another top arm. They did just that by adding the 30-year-old Canadian Paxton, who was 11-6 with a 3.76 ERA last season, striking out 208 batters in 160 1/3 innings. His FIP was also strong at 3.23 and this season was coming off of a 2016 season where his FIP was 2.80 and a 2017 season where his FIP was 2.61. Paxton also only allowed 134 hits last season (including a no-hitter in Toronto against the Blue Jays), seeing his WHIP fall to a career-best 1.10.

The most impressive trait for Paxton is his strikeout ability, as he was seventh in swinging strike rate among pitchers with 160 innings thrown in 2017 at 14.3%.  He also led baseball in swing percentage (52.4%) and allowed just 82.1% contact in the strike zone (8th in baseball). Paxton saw his ERA go from 2.98 in 2017 to 3.76 in 2018 (more on that in a moment), but his xFIP (3.02) was actually better than in 2017 (3.25). His K-BB% of 25.7 was fifth in baseball last season and he had two pitches that were top-15 value (fastball and cutter), as well as a plus pitch with his curveball. He has lost a tick on his fastball velocity, from 97.4 in 2016 to 95.9 this season, but it has continued to be one of the better ones in baseball. All told, since 2016, Paxton's 2.90 FIP is fifth in baseball, his 1.16 WHIP is 17th in baseball, and his 28.2% K rate is 11th in baseball.

An issue for Paxton is his fly ball rate, as he allowed a 41.1% fly ball rate last season (13th-worst of those that pitched at least 160 innings), up from 30.1% in 2016 and 32.7% in 2017. He also allowed a career-worst 34% hard hit ball rate and his ground ball rate was 39.6%, his worst ratio as a professional. The cherry on top was the fact that he allowed 23 home runs in 2018 after allowing 18 home runs in the two previous seasons. Yes, he allowed a career-low 72.6% contact rate, but he needs to do better at missing barrels when he does allow contact. On the positive side, though, both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer did have worse fly ball ratios than Paxton. The worst thing about his batted ball trends, though, is that he will be moving from a pitcher's park in Seattle (27th in run factor) to a hitter's ballpark in New York (6th in run factor). There is also the fact that he allowed four runs in five innings in his only start in New York (June 21 of last season), allowing two homers in that game. While his fly ball rate was a bit better to close the season, he needs to watch his ratios now that he is in the Bronx.

Paxton's issue is his health, but, fortunately for the Yankees, he does not have a track record of shoulder or elbow injuries. His injuries have included a strained lat muscle, strained middle finger tendon, forearm strain or contusion and a back injury; none of these injuries were reoccurring either.  Also, while some may look at Paxton's lack of work due to injuries as a negative, this is still a 30-year-old that has not even pitched 600 big league innings. Signed through the 2020 season, look for Paxton to ink a long-term deal with the Yankees over the next two seasons and to flash SP2 potential with the Yankees. He will constantly be put in a good position for wins, but needs to monitor his fly ball rate in New York.

 

What Did The Mariners Get For Their Ace?

Any package from the Yankees was going to start with top prospect Sheffield, but it is surprising that the Mariners did not get any other players inside of the top-15 of the Yankees farm system. In fact, there are even questions on if Sheffield is even the ace that the Mariners could have been looking for. There were rumors that the Astros were close to a deal for Paxton, but were adamant that they would not trade Forrest Whitley.

With Sheffield, the Mariners are getting a 5'11 lefty with a stable of pitches that may match Paxton's; unfortunately, he isn't 6'4, 235 and also walked 12.5% of batters in Double-A and 9.9% in Triple-A. Command issues led to the Yankees delaying his promotion to the big leagues, no matter their starting pitching woes, and, when they did call him up, it was for just 2 2/3 innings as a reliever in September. His command issues continued in that small spell (three walks and four hits allowed), leading some to believe that he is an SP3 or high-end reliever rather than an ace in the future. He did also have a 2.48 ERA in 116 minor league innings, striking out 123 batters, so the potential is still there for him to be an impact player in 2019 and beyond.

As for Swanson and Thompson-Williams, there are things to like, but they are more lottery tickets than sure things. Swanson was acquired in the deal that sent Carlos Beltran to Texas in 2016 and he was 15-5 with a 3.24 ERA over the last two seasons spanning from High-A to Triple-A. In 2018, Swanson saw his strikeout numbers jump to 139 in 122 2/3 innings and his solid 4.07 K:BB rate in 357 minor league innings should lead to him being a part of the Mariners' rotation at some point in 2019 or early 2020 at the latest. Thompson-Williams was a 20/20 player in the low minors last season (22 home runs and 20 stolen bases between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa) and does have a .350 OBP in 897 plate appearances in the minors. At 24 in April, the Mariners will want to see if Thompson-Williams can handle a move up to Double-A to open the season and he could be a fourth OF in Seattle by 2021.

More Year In Review Articles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF