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Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has been one of the most consistently productive running backs year in and year out. In each of the past four seasons, he has logged over 200 carries and gained over 1,100 yards, while making four straight Pro Bowls.
He's also been consistently beset by nagging injuries. Almost every season, it seems he goes down in the middle of a game, clutches his shoulder, misses one game, puts a brace on it, and gets back on the field. He tore his ACL in 2017, and he missed between three and five games every year from 2018 through 2021.
In fact, 2022 was the first time he played a full 17 games. Now, it has been reported that Cook had surgery on his shoulder. Should you be worried about his status going into the 2023 season?
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Dalvin Cook Injury Update for Fantasy Football
Cook broke his shoulder in Week 15 of the 2019 season. The injury caused him to miss the final two games of the regular season, but he was back for the playoffs, and he gained 94 yards and scored two touchdowns in a Wild Card Round victory over the New Orleans Saints.
Shoulder problems, in addition to an ankle sprain, came back to bother him throughout the 2021 season. He missed Weeks 3, 5, 13, and 16. While fantasy managers were always nervous he might go down midway through a game, at least they did not have to worry about him missing the season. He never missed two consecutive games, and he produced one 100-yard game and one 200-yard game in two of his weeks returning from injury.
According to his agent, Cook should be ready for the start of the 2023 season.
Dalvin Cook 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
This surgery by itself should not concern fantasy managers. Cook was healthy all season. If there was something seriously hindering him, he wouldn't have participated in the Pro Bowl Games.
But the cumulative wear and tear on Cook over these years is concerning. With 1,282 carries since 2017, Cook ranks seventh amongst active players. He is going to turn 28 before next season.
Has Cook hit the RB cliff? Maybe, maybe not.
A 2017 study by PFF's Tyler Loechner found that average fantasy points for running backs plateau in the late 20s but do not decline precipitously until age 31. A 2021 article by Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros found that the chances of a 28-year-old RB finishing in the top five are no different than the sample of 25-year-olds and 27-year-olds. The last time a back older than age 28 finished as the league's leading rusher was 30-year-old Adrian Peterson in 2015.
So Cook has probably got a couple of productive fantasy years left in him, but he is approaching the falling-off point. His numbers might not ever return to the level of his 2020 season.
While his efficiency was down on a per-game and per-play basis, Cook did finish as the RB8 in standard and the RB10 in PPR on his heavy volume. His average PPR score put him at RB14.
Dalvin Cook won't contend for the title of RB1, but he could be a solid RB2 for a couple more years.
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