RADIO
Hello PGA DFS family! The Valspar Championship turned into a two-horse race with Sam Burns eventually outdueling Keegan Bradley down the stretch. Burns is a young player with true superstar potential and many inside the PGA DFS industry knew a win was coming soon. It will be interesting to see if his first PGA Tour victory springboards him to bigger and better accomplishments.
The Valspar kicked off what is a very serious stretch of golf on the PGA Tour. With the PGA Championship looming just two weeks away, many of the world's best players will head to Quail Hollow this week for their final tune-up ahead of the year's second major championship. This is gonna be a fun week, let's dig in!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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Wells Fargo Championship Overview
With the state of Florida now in the rearview, we head to North Carolina for one of the best events on the PGA Tour schedule, the Wells Fargo Championship. This tournament is annually held at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte and returns to action after being canceled last year due to COVID-19. It's a long and tough layout, but one that is almost universally praised as one of the top courses in the country.
In addition to being a prestigious event on a word-class golf course, we also have the secondary narrative of the PGA Championship looming just two weeks away. This will be the final tune-up for many of the world's best golfers and we can expect this Quail Hollow layout to present them with a stiff challenge.
As mentioned, this is the last chance for many of the world's best players to sharpen their games prior to the PGA Championship, with many electing not to tee it up the week before a major. The strength of this week's Wells Fargo field reflects that, as it is absolutely stacked! 2019 champion, Max Homa, will attempt to defend his title against a wealth of talent that includes Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele. Honestly, the list goes on and on, with this undoubtedly being the strongest field we've seen since the Masters. I'm pumped!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Quail Hollow Club
Par 71 - 7,521 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Designed By: George Cobb
Originally designed by George Cobb in 1961, Quail Hollow has always presented players with the daunting closing stretch dubbed the "Green Mile", but a Tom Fazio upgrade prior to hosting the 2017 PGA Championship put the North Carolina layout in the conversation for one of the tougher tests on the Tour schedule.
The first thing that jumps out is Quail Hollow's length. At almost 7,600 yards, a golfer's distance will play an important factor this week. We have an almost polar opposite situation to what we saw at Harbour Town a couple of weeks ago...where players were almost never forced to hit drivers off the tee.
At Quail Hollow, players will be using the big dog often, which makes me very interested in a player's prowess off the tee. Ball striking will be important, as it seemingly is every week. We must also consider scrambling ability and bogey avoidance on this tough layout.
It must be noted that the 2017 regular-season edition of this tournament was played at a different course, so when you're doing course-history research ignore '17, unless you want to look at the PGA Championship from that year.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Recent Champions
- 2020: Canceled Due To COVID-19
- 2019: Max Homa (-15)
- 2018: Jason Day (-12)
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) *2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow
- 2016: James Hahn (-9)
The Horse
Justin Thomas
Notable Course History: T21 (2018), Win ('17) *PGA Championship, T7 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $11,300 FanDuel Price: $12,300
Justin Thomas is something of a no-brainer this week due to his course history and his current form. JT captured the 2017 PGA Championship that was held on this Quail Hollow layout with a T21 and a T7 also on his Wells Fargo resume since 2015.
He's roundly considered one of the top players in the world - some would say the best - and it's tough to argue with that assessment. After kicking off 2021 with a couple of off-the-course issues, Thomas has moved things into gear as of late, highlighted by a spectacular win at THE PLAYERS just over a month ago. It's not a surprise to find that JT is statistically elite...over the last 36 rounds he grades out first in this Wells Fargo field in SG: Approach and third in SG: T2G.
That tee-to-green excellence has often-times been derailed by JT's struggles with the putter. His performance in last week's Valspar Championship is a perfect example, as Thomas led the Valspar field in SG: T2G, OTT, & APP, but ranked just 67th in SG: Putting...making just three putts of over 10 feet. Basically, aside from a few stray weeks with the driver, we can expect Thomas' game to be there from tee to green on a weekly basis and have to hope for just a decent performance with the flatstick.
The Ponies
Webb Simpson
Notable Course History: T18 ('19), T21 ('18), T33 ('17) *PGA Championship, T2 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $10,200 FanDuel Price: $11,400
Since we’re talking course history, I suppose we should discuss the player that lives just a stone’s throw from Quail Hollow’s first tee...Webb Simpson. The Raleigh native and member of Quail Hollow Club has an intimate knowledge of this layout that is tough to put a price on (though DraftKings has tried by listing him at $10.2k this week).
Simpson’s familiarity with this golf course is certainly reflected in his results in the Wells Fargo - a T2 and a pair of top-25s since 2015 - which makes the veteran one of the top plays on the board this week.
In addition to the course history, Webb has - of course - been in rock-solid form this year. He’s set to tee it up on the heels of a T12 at the Masters and a T9 at the RBC Heritage. Simpson has made the cut in six of his seven 2021 starts with three top-10 finishes. As always, he’s a player that you can roster confidently in all DFS formats.
Rory McIlroy
Notable Course History: T18 ('19), T6 ('18), T22 ('17) *PGA Championship, T4 ('16), Win ('15), Win ('10)
DraftKings Price: $10,000 FanDuel Price: $11,800
There are lots of elite players with elite course history in this week’s field, but Rory McIlroy stands head and shoulders above the rest. McIlroy has a long and storied history at Quail Hollow. It was the site of his first career PGA Tour victory in 2010, as a blistering final-round 62 announced his presence to American golf fans. Rory posted a subsequent victory at Quail Hollow in 2015 and boasts a massive SG: Total mark of +46.74 in this event, the highest in the field by a wide margin.
With the course history out of the way, we should probably dive into McIlroy’s current form. To say there are issues would be an understatement, as the superstar heads to the Wells Fargo off missed cuts in each of his last two starts at THE PLAYERS and the Masters, not to mention a horrible outing at the WGC-Match Play. He admitted to chasing distance off the tee during the offseason due to Bryson DeChambeau’s win at Winged Foot late last year and the swing tweaks appear to be wreaking havoc with his overall game.
Rostering McIlroy this week is a bet that he’s found something with his game over the three weeks since his disappointing performance at the Masters and will be able to translate that to results in the friendly environment of this Quail Hollow layout.
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Patrick Reed
Notable Course History: T28 ('19), 8th ('18), T2 ('17) *PGA Championship, T28 ('16)
DraftKings Price: $9,300 FanDuel Price: $10,900
Patrick Reed continues to be a statistical enigma and something of a mystery to the statheads inside the PGA DFS industry. I’m no different, as it’s so impossible to predict the 2018 Masters champion that I’ve basically adopted a mantra of: “Play Reed on tough golf courses.” over the past couple of years. Is it an oversimplification? Probably. But his track record on “difficult” layouts is pretty undeniable.
That record is especially true on this Quail Hollow track. Reed has been a beast at the Carolina venue, with a SG: Total mark of +26.49 in the Wells Fargo Championship. That number doesn’t take into account a sterling runner-up finish in the 2017 PGA Championship held at Quail Hollow.
Reed heads to this edition of the Wells Fargo fresh off a missed cut at Valspar last week. Surprisingly, his ball striking numbers were solid last week and it was a cold putter that sent him packing on Friday afternoon. We can expect the missed cut to ding his DFS ownership a bit this week, while also feeling confident that the bad outing with the flatstick was nothing more than an outlier for the player with one of the best short games in the world.
Joel Dahmen
Notable Course History: 2nd ('19), T16 ('18)
DraftKings Price: $7,600 FanDuel Price: $9,100
We talked about Patrick Reed’s statistical inconsistencies earlier in this week’s article and the same can be said of Joel Dahmen, a player that will rarely pop in stat models, but seems to consistently play well at Quail Hollow. The fan favorite has logged a runner-up finish and a T18 in his last two Wells Fargo starts.
Dahmen had suffered through a brutal stretch of golf in early 2021 - missing the cut in six of his first seven starts this year - before grabbing the first PGA Tour win of his career in the Corales Puntacana Championship to close out March. Outside of a start at the Valero Texas Open the following week, Dahmen has been inactive since the win at Corales. It leaves us guessing as to his current form, but his resume makes him an attractive GPP option in this spot. Another note about Dahmen, he has a Bubba Watson-esque quality, in that he seems to repeatedly play well on the same golf courses, with Quail Hollow being one of his “Happy Places”.
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