Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - The Masters

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2021 Masters. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

Welcome back RotoBaller PGA family! As most of you probably know, the "Jordan Spieth Redemption Tour" rolled to a victory in the Valero Texas Open Sunday. Spieth was this article's Horse last week (and I have a tiny feeling we might touch on him this week as well) and led the charge for a strong group of players that were highlighted in this article, including runner-up finisher, Charley Hoffman.

It feels good to head into Masters week with tons of positive momentum. You guys don't need me to tell you how huge this event is...as the Masters tends to bring folks that aren't even golf fans into the PGA DFS mix. With multiple "Milly Maker" contests available on DraftKings this week, it is a terrific time to "shoot your shot", so let's dig into some Augusta National course history!

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

The Masters Overview

As I mentioned in the intro, the Masters is an event unlike any other. While the other three major championships are obviously huge events, there's just something about the tradition and mystique of the Masters that makes it different. The Masters is the most unique of the major championships in that it's played on the same golf course every year. As a result, we have tons of course history to evaluate for most players in the field. In fact, while it can be a struggle to find enough players that qualify for this article for some events, the problem is the opposite this week, as there are tons of great players with strong resumes available to us on this slate.

As if the tournament itself isn't enough to get excited for, we head Augusta this year with multiple intriguing storylines...Can DJ defend? Is Jordan Spieth ready to win another green jacket or can Rory, Rahm, or JT win their first? Bryson DeChambeau's distance plan failed in November, but will it work this go around? How healthy is Brooks Koepka?

While we'll have to wait for the answers to all those tantalizing questions, one that we can answer fairly confidently right now is, "Does course history matter at the Masters?" There are some folks in the PGA DFS industry that will argue "No" until the end, but I'm willing to shout a resounding "YES!" from the rooftops, as Augusta National is notoriously tough on first timers and consistently rewards experience. Let's dig into some of those "course horses"!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: Augusta National

Par 72 - 7,435 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass, Designed By: Bobby Jones & Alister Mackenzie

The brainchild of the legendary Bobby Jones, Augusta National was built on a 365-acre property that had been Fruitland Nurseries. Jones imparted all his wisdom on the layout that would eventually become the most famous golf course in the world. The condition of the course is IMMACULATE, with not as much as a young azalea out of place.

Augusta National is a Par 72 that has been stretched out to 7,435 yards. The legendary layout tests every facet of a player's game. You have to be long and (somewhat) accurate off the tee, precise on approach shots with your irons, creative with your short game, and have nerves of steel on the lightning-fast greens.

Perhaps nearly as important as being able to actually hit the shots, is knowing what type of shots to hit and where to hit them. Course experience isn't an absolute must to play well at Augusta, but we see time and again how big of an asset course knowledge and experience can be in the Masters. The preferred ball flight is right-to-left (a draw for right-handed players) off the tee and a high cut on approach shots into the greens. While there is obviously more than one way to skin a cat, we've seen players that can hit those shots repeatedly succeed over the years.

Although we got a look at Augusta National less than six months ago, I wouldn't put a ton of stock into how the golf course played back in November. I expect the golf course to be much firmer and faster this week with drives running out and greens that are less receptive than we saw in November.

For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!

Recent Champions

• 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
• 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
• 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
• 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
• 2016: Danny Willett (-5)

The Horse

Jordan Spieth

Notable Course History: Win (2015), Runner-up ('14 & '16), 4th ('18), T27 ('17)
DraftKings Price: $11,000 FanDuel Price: $11,700

I don't know if we've ever had back-to-back Horses before, but Jordan Spieth is a nice way to set the precedent. We had a huge amount of belief in Spieth last week and he came through with a victory in the Valero Texas Open, his first win since 2017. The Texan now takes that positive momentum to the legendary Augusta National Golf Club, a place where he triumphed in 2015 and has routinely played terrific, even in the absence of having his game all the way together.

All the things we discussed with Spieth last week still apply here. This renaissance is completely different from some of the random low rounds we've seen him post over the last couple of years. The key difference is that this recent run is due to exceptional iron play and not simply short game magic. The 27-year-old was again phenomenal with his irons last week, gaining 7.4 strokes on Approach at Valero. He's now gained strokes with his irons in six of his seven starts this year with an average of +4.5 SG: Approach over his last five tournaments. It's the type of ball striking numbers that we haven't seen out of Spieth since the summer of 2017 when he won the Travelers and Open Championship.

As I mentioned last week, the fact that his strong recent play is based on improved ball striking and not a red-hot short game, makes Spieth's resurgence feel real, and perhaps more importantly, sustainable. From a pure golf standpoint, everything lines up perfectly for him this week. From a DFS perspective, our only concern is just how popular he will be on this slate.

The Ponies

Jon Rahm

Notable Course History: T7 ('20), T9 ('19), 4th ('18), T27 ('17)
DraftKings Price: $11,000 FanDuel Price: $11,700

Listen, we can pretty much blindly pull a name out of a hat with this week's $10k-plus guys, as most have great course history at the Masters. I'm highlighting Jon Rahm here due not only to his consistent excellence at Augusta National, but due to his rock-solid form as of late. The Spaniard has been a consistent performer over the past year (and basically for his entire pro career) and has remarkably gained strokes T2G in every start since August OF LAST YEAR! He brings that steady play to a course where he owns a 70.25 career scoring average, a mark that is the best in this week's field among players with at least three Masters starts.

Perhaps the biggest concern about Rahm coming into the week was an off-the-course one, as he and his wife have been expecting their first child and Rahm had made it clear that he wouldn't hesitate to WD at any point of the tournament. Luckily for everyone, the Rahm's welcomed a healthy baby boy, Kepa, over the weekend, thus ending any dilemma that we might have had about rostering the Spaniard.

Tony Finau

Notable Course History: T38 ('20), T5 ('19), T10 ('18)
DraftKings Price: $9,100 FanDuel Price: $10,700

I was practically "all in" on Finau back in November and he putted HORRIBLY en route to a T38. If we liked him then at $8.8k on DraftKings then, I suppose we have to like him now at $9.1k...he's played beautifully for the majority of the year, posting three consecutive runner-up finish during one stretch. His last two starts at Valero and THE PLAYERS have been duds, but he'll have much more room to operate off the tee this week.

Yes, the elephant in the room is his inability to actually win tournaments, but he remains a rock-solid DFS building block, especially when we consider that the T38 in November was the worst Masters outing of his career. Finau trails only Jon Rahm in career Masters scoring average among those with at least three starts at Augusta National with a tournament scoring average of 70.42.

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Hideki Matsuyama

Notable Course History: T13 ('20), T7 ('16), T5 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $8,300 FanDuel Price: $10,200

For years Matsuyama has basically been an "auto click" for me at the Masters, but I'm honestly not quite as confident this year. His performances at Augusta have remained excellent (T13-T32-19th-T11-T7 last five Masters starts), but the Japanese star has looked somewhat lifeless in 2021, with his last truly dynamic outing coming last year at the Houston Open. All that said, reliable Masters performers tend to stay reliable Masters performers, so Hideki certainly deserves consideration this week. His irons are firing - he's gained strokes on Approach in his last four starts - and he ended last week's Valero with +3.3 mark on Approach.

Paul Casey

Notable Course History: Four top-six finishes in 14 Masters starts
DraftKings Price: $7,700 FanDuel Price: $9,900

There is a true cornucopia of viable and affordable veterans on this slate, and Paul Casey at $7.7k on DraftKings, might just be the best option of the bunch. Outside of a pedestrian outing at the Match Play, the Englishman has been stellar throughout 2021, picking up a win at the Omega Dubai Classic in January and logging a pair of top-fives and a pair of top-10s in his four U.S. starts. In addition to his current form, Casey has been elite at Augusta National. He's made the cut in four of his last five Masters starts with two top-six finishes among those appearances. A lot to like here, though I imagine he'll be one of the most popular options on this huge slate.

Matt Kuchar & Ian Poulter

Notable Course History: A combined seven Masters top-10s
DraftKings Price: $6,800 FanDuel Price: $8,800 (Kuchar) & $8,600 (Poulter)

It's not a coincidence that Tiger Woods won the Masters at 43 and that Jack Nicklaus pulled it off at 46. While Augusta National is certainly long, its many subtleties make it possible for experienced veterans with course knowledge and experience to thrive. Enter Matt Kuchar and Ian Poulter at just $6.8k on DraftKings. These two veteran warhorses appeared to snap prolonged funks at the WGC-Match Play (with Kuchar carrying the hot play over to Valero) and have a combined seven top-10 finishes on their Masters resumes. Don't be surprised to see one of these two in contention over the weekend at Augusta National.

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