Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - The American Express

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the American Express. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

Welcome back RotoBaller PGA family! 2021 is rolling right along, as Kevin Na took down the Sony Open, the first full-field event of the year. It was Na's fifth career PGA Tour victory and he's now won a tournament in four-straight seasons. In our RotoBaller coverage of the Sony Open last week we emphasized that Waialae Country Club was a place where anyone in the field could win and that proved to be the case with the light-hitting Na emerging from a bunched final-round leaderboard.

After opening 2021 with a couple of weeks in Hawaii, we head back to the mainland for The American Express in La Quinta, California. This is the traditional start to the PGA Tour's "West Coast Swing", though this year's event will be a bit different than we're used to. We'll dig into those changes, as well as some players with strong course history in this week's HFTC. Let's go!

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

The American Express Overview

The Desert Classic. The CareerBuilder Challenge. The Humana Challenge. The Bob Hope...

Yes, this tournament has been known by many names over the years, but the event in the desert has managed to endure and find a title sponsor in American Express that is bringing some stability to the long-time celebrity pro-am. About that pro-am...not happening this year due to COVID-19 safety regulations. This tournament is also normally contested on three different golf courses (PGA West Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, & La Quinta Country Club), but that will be dropped down to two this year (PGA West & Nicklaus)...also due to COVID-19. Also out the window is the traditional 54-hole cut, as players will play each of the courses over the first two rounds then finish the weekend at the PGA West Stadium Course after a 36-hole cut.

This event is always an interesting week due to the unique format, but the combination of the pro-am cancellation and scaling the tournament down to two golf courses, helps us to focus in on the actual golf being played this week. I like it. A dive into past results for the AmEx actually reveals a lot of crossover with last week's Sony, as we'll find many players that have performed well at Sony - guys like Steele, CH3, Harman, & Na - have also performed well in this event. So like last week, we must consider this an event that brings the entire field into play for DFS purposes.

Andrew Landry headed into last year's AmEx having missed the cut in seven of his previous eight starts, but the gritty Landry found a way to get it done, outlasting Abraham Ancer to claim the American Express victory. He'll be back to defend. Phil Mickelson will also be back to "host" the event and - although Jon Rahm has withdrawn - they'll be joined by a not-too-shabby field that features Brooks Koepka, the Patricks (Reed & Cantlay), Matthew Wolff, and Tony Finau!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: TPC Stadium Course at PGA West

Par 72 - 7,133 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Designed By: Pete Dye

We're normally juggling three golf courses for this event, but this year's American Express will be narrowed down to two, with all players tackling the TPC Stadium Course & the Nicklaus Tournament Course over the first two rounds, with those that make the 36-hole cut playing the entire weekend on the Stadium Course.

The Stadium Course is classic "desert golf" and traditionally plays much tougher than the other tracks in the rotation. Players will face a difficult closing stretch that includes a 20-feet deep bunker on Hole 16, the infamous "Alcatraz hole" at 17, and a par-4 18th that is lined with water. The course rotation makes this a volatile tournament. I'm targeting strong ball strikers who I hope will gain strokes both off the tee and on approach this week. 11 of the last 12 Desert Classic winners have played at least one of the Hawaiian events, so you might want to lean toward players that have been active at least once in the last two weeks. For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!

Recent Champions & Winning Scores

• 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
• 2019: Adam Long (-26)
• 2018: Jon Rahm (-22) *Playoff
• 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20)
• 2016: Jason Dufner (-25) *Playoff

Notes From Last Year's American Express

• On the heels of journeyman Adam Long's victory in 2019, Andrew Landry won the AmEx despite having missed the cut in seven of his previous eight starts leading up to the event.
• Abe Ancer put together an impressive Sunday charge! Ancer dropped a final-round 63 and was tied for the lead late, but Landry held on by finishing with clutch back-to-back birdies.
• After a runner-up finish in 2019, tournament host, Phil Mickelson, failed to break 70 in last year's AmEx and logged a missed cut.
• Like last week's Sony Open, the AmEx is an event in which short-hitters can thrive, as evidenced by Andrew Landry's win.

The Horse

Scottie Scheffler

DraftKings: $9,500
FanDuel: $11,300

Notable Course History: 3rd (2020)

Full disclosure: Jon Rahm was originally this week's Horse, but a late WD sent me scrambling for a replacement. I'm actually disappointed about Rahm's WD for a couple reasons...he was going to be a strong DFS play and I think his absence will send Scottie Scheffler's ownership skyrocketing into the stratosphere. Despite being the seventh-highest priced player on the DK salary scale, Scheffler now sits tied for the third-best odds to win (17/1) with Rahm off the board. Basically, we're getting a ton of win equity here for $9.5k and I think his ownership this week will reflect that.

Scheffler doesn't have the extended course history that's normally required to be named the Horse in this article, but after posting a third-place finish in his AmEx debut last year, I think it's fair to say that he likes the place. We know birdies are needed to win this tournament and Scheffler is one of the best in the world at racking them up. He ranks sixth in this week's field in long-term Birdies or Better Gained statistics (he was also second in last year's AmEx in Eagles Gained).

The Texan got dealt a bad hand at the end of last season by contracting COVID-19 when he was in the midst of playing the best golf of his young career. Scheffler had posted top-five finishes in three of four starts when he was forced out of action prior to the U.S. Open and - if we're being honest - hasn't quite been able to regain that form since. However, he still managed to post a T19 in his Masters debut and logged a T13 in the stacked Sentry ToC two weeks ago. Scheffler is too talented - and too explosive - to remain winless for long and it feels as though his first PGA Tour win is coming sooner rather than later.

The Ponies

Patrick Cantlay

DraftKings: $11,100
FanDuel: $11,800

Notable Course History: T9 ('20)

Patrick Cantlay comes in as one of the strongest players in this week's field. In addition to the name recognition, he also fared well in his 2019 AmEx start, posting a T9. Cantlay plays a pretty reduced schedule, but we did see him in action two weeks ago at the Sentry, a tournament where he posted a middling T13 against an elite field.

This week's field should provide easier sledding for the former UCLA Bruin and it isn't tough to envision Cantlay simply outclassing this field over the course of four rounds. Using long-term measurements, he grades out eighth in this field in SG: T2G and fourth in SG: Total.

We saw Cantlay underwhelm for the most part last year, though he did manage to save a disappointing season with a win at the ZOZO Championship at the tail-end of 2020. Hopefully he'll carry that positive momentum into 2021 and be able to get off to a quick start this year.

Sam Burns

DraftKings: $8,300
FanDuel: $10,300

Notable Course History: T6 ('20), T18 ('19)

A young player with a bright future, I found myself rostering Sam Burns quite frequently last year. Burns performed well, making the cut in four of his five Swing Season starts with top-10 performances in two of those outings. 

The LSU product has been very sharp in two career AmEx starts and will try to carry over that positive momentum from 2020 into this week. Over the last 24 measured rounds, Burns grades out first in this field in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and stands second in SG: Ball Striking.

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Adam Hadwin

DraftKings: $8,000
FanDuel: $9,800

Notable Course History: T2 ('19), T3 ('18), 2nd ('17), T6 ('16)

Ok...this will be a very interesting case study in “Does course history matter?”. 

Adam Hadwin has been the “Tiger Woods of the American Express”, gaining an unbelievable 51.79 strokes total in this tournament - by far the most in this week’s field - and reeling off finishes inside the top-three in each of his last three AmEx starts. 

However, Hadwin rolls into this year’s edition in HORRIBLE form. He’s lost strokes total in each of his last four starts (failing to play the weekend in all three that had a cut) and he hasn’t posted a top-25 result since JULY of last year. 

It will be interesting to see how the Canadian fares this week in a tournament which has historically been the best event of his career. Hadwin once shot a 59 in this tournament (notably, it came at La Quinta Country Club, the course that’s been dropped from this year’s rotation), but he’s entering the week off a month-long layoff and in his worst form in years. His DK price tag is extremely out of whack when considering his recent form, so a bet on Hadwin's course history is an expensive gamble this week. 

Charley Hoffman

DraftKings: $7,400
FanDuel: $8,900

Notable Course History: T61 ('20), MC ('19), MC ('17), 2nd ('15), Win ('07)

I’ve never been one to routinely hang my hat on Charley Hoffman, as his career has been plagued by inconsistency. Hoffman’s game logs are often marked with both missed cuts and top-10s, and that’s also been the case for him at the AmEx, a tournament where he has a win and four top-10s, but also has six missed cuts in 13 career starts. 

I’m willing to consider Hoffman this week (while still being mindful of his volatility) due to both the course history and because he has been in such a nice groove as of late. He’s coming off an impressive ball-striking performance at last week’s Sony Open, where he gained 8.2 strokes T2G - a mark that was fourth in the field - and 4.9 strokes on Approach en route to a T14 finish. It was his fourth-straight made cut, fourth-straight start gaining strokes T2G, and fourth top-25 result since the start of the Swing Season.

Vaughn Taylor

DraftKings: $6,800
FanDuel: $8,100

Notable Course History: T43 ('20), T7 ('19), MC ('18), T41 ('17)

As we move down the salary scale we're always looking for viable value plays. I like what I'm seeing with Vaughn Taylor this week. He has a solid AmEx track record that consists of three career top-10 finishes and flashed a bit of form last week at the Sony Open. The veteran logged a T25 at Waialae, his first top-25 in...checks the record books...a looong time (his last top-25 was at the Genesis way back in February of last year). However, he also put together a decent start at the RSM Classic to close out 2020 and he has the feel of a guy that's starting to put things together after an extended slump. Taylor gained 4.9 strokes T2G last week and jumps out as solid salary-saver on this slate.

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