RADIO
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Like bears reluctantly poking their heads out of their caves after a winter's worth of hibernation, PGA DFS grinders are slowly shaking away the fog of December and squinting their eyes at the bright sunshine of the coming golf season.
After the extensive 2021 "super season", the December break was much-needed for those of us that are on the weekly PGA grind. But after some time to rest and recharge, I'm extremely excited to go once more into the PGA DFS fray with all of you in 2022. Our campaign begins this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions
We open the PGA Tour's calendar year with an event that is an annual tradition for golf fans, the Sentry Tournament of Champions. As the title suggests, this invitation-only event is comprised only of players that won a PGA Tour event over the past year. Including a special exemption for Olympic gold medalist, Xander Schauffele, a grand total of 40 invitations were issued for this year's Sentry, with Rory McIlroy being the lone qualified player electing not to tee it up this week.
Rory aside, it's easy to see why most pros jump at the chance to tee it up in the Sentry. It offers players guaranteed money and FedEx Cup points in a no-cut format, as well as a chance to knock the rust off their games - after what's been an extensive layoff for many - in a somewhat-relaxed competitive environment.
Speaking of a relaxed environment, I shouldn't neglect to mention that the Sentry will once again be held at the paradise-like Plantation Course at Kapalua on the island of Maui, Hawaii. Just as the friendly confines of Kapalua offer pro golfers a chance to knock off a winter's worth of rust, the same can be said of the opportunity this event provides for PGA DFS regulars. The wait is over...LET'S DIVE INTO SOME COURSE HORSES!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Par 73 - 7,596 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw
The Plantation Course sits at the foot of the West Maui Mountains and incorporates drastic elevation changes into the layout. We will see some of the longest drives of the season this week, as players will have several downhill tee shots and wide, forgiving fairways that allow them to freely swing away off the tee. We are dealing with a rare Par 73 course that features four Par-5s. Weather conditions, specifically the wind, can sometimes be a factor at Kapalua, but the conditions are usually mild to moderate enough to allow for very low scoring. For an extensive, in-depth look at Kapalua, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown, an article by Josh Bennett that uses Google Earth images to dissect every hole of this week's layout.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Sentry TOC Winners
- 2021: Harris English (-25)
- 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
- 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-22)
The Horse
Justin Thomas
Notable Course History: 3rd (2021), Win ('20), 3rd ('19), Win ('17)
DraftKings Price: $10,600 FanDuel Price: $11,900
I'd love to kick off the first Horse For The Course of 2022 with a really splashy pick that is cool and contrarian. Unfortunately, that's not really how this article works, as I let a player's course history dictate their placement here. So while it might be a bit boring to go with two-time Sentry winner, Justin Thomas, as the first Horse of the year, that's what I feel obligated to do.
It's hard to call a year in which JT won the freakin' PLAYERS Championship disappointing, but I don't feel like that label is unfair when evaluating his results in 2021. For players of Thomas' caliber, success is measured in major championships and 2021 proved to be another dry year for JT, whose lone major win - the 2017 PGA Championship - feels like an eternity ago. Thomas not only didn't win a major in 2021 but - outside of early-round contention at the Masters - he was basically a non-existent factor, with a T19 in the U.S. Open proving to be his best result in the year's biggest events.
In addition to the uninspiring play in majors, 2021 proved to be a rough year for Thomas in many other ways. He lost his long-time apparel sponsor Ralph Lauren after a homophobic slur muttered in this very event caused controversy, his beloved grandfather passed away during the Waste Management, his good friend Tiger Woods was involved in a life-altering car crash, and he announced at season's end that he would be parting ways with longtime caddie, Jimmy Johnson.
I say all this not to dig at JT, but to express just what a bounce-back opportunity this week's Sentry TOC - and 2022 as a whole - is for him. It is easy to imagine that Thomas will enter this year highly motivated and refocused, with veteran caddie Jim "Bones" Mackay now on his bag also helping to provide a fresh perspective.
We're always somewhat guessing as to what type of form a player will bring into this event after the December layoff, but Thomas' elite track record at Kapalua tells us that he has the preparation routine for this tournament figured out and will be ready to roll this week. His shortcomings in 2021 should serve as strong motivation this week and beyond.
The Ponies
Xander Schauffele
Notable Course History: T5 ('20), T2 ('19), Win ('18)
DraftKings Price: $9,500 FanDuel Price: $11,500
Strange question: Did Harris English kick off a trend of non-PGA Tour event winners actually winning the Tournament of Champions last year?
Thanks to the craziness of COVID in 2020, Harris English earned a spot in last year's Sentry via his qualification for the TOUR Championship and proceeded to win the tournament. Xander Schauffele could make it two in a row, as he enters this year's TOC without a true win on the PGA Tour in 2021, but via a special exemption for his gold medal victory in the Tokyo Olympics.
The X-Man's uber-elite track record at Kapalua indicates he should be in serious DFS consideration this week. Schauffele won the TOC in 2018 by firing a course-record-tying 62 in the final round, fell just short in a 2019 playoff thanks to a sloppy three-putt, and logged a rock-solid T5 last year on the strength of a pair of 66's. His massive length off the tee often goes overlooked - he averaged just over 307 yards in driving distance last season - but gives him a big advantage on this bomber-friendly Kapalua layout.
Jordan Spieth
Notable Course History: 9th ('18), T3 ('17), Win ('16), 2nd ('15)
DraftKings Price: $8,900 FanDuel Price: $10,900
After a three-year absence from the Sentry TOC, Jordan Spieth returns to Kapalua this year thanks to his win at the Valero Texas Open last April. Perhaps because of his lengthy absence from the Sentry, it is easy to forget just how absolutely amazing Spieth has been at Kapalua in the past.
The Texan went 2nd-Win-T3 here over a three-year stretch from 2015 to 2017 and also notched a top-10 in his last trip to Maui in 2018. Spieth's 68.25 career scoring average in this event is the lowest of any player in this year's field with at least two Sentry starts. His success at the Plantation Course makes sense when we think about it...he has TONS of room to operate off the tee, he possesses the ability to make birdies in bunches, creativity around the greens actually matters here, and his ability in windy conditions is perhaps second to none.
Since it's still 2021 as I write this, I have no concept of ownership numbers yet, but there's a chance that Spieth's abysmal, dead-last showing in the Hero Challenge sticks in the mind of many PGA DFS players this week and lowers his popularity as a result. I'm giving basically no weight to that outing and will happily be overweight on Speith in comparison to the field here.
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Patrick Reed
Notable Course History: T2 ('20), T6 ('17), 2nd ('16), Win ('15)
DraftKings Price: $7,900 FanDuel Price: $9,900
The recent results are bad. The statistics are gross. Outside of his spectacular course history at Kapalua that includes a win and two runner-ups, not many signs point to Patrick Reed in this spot. However, those of us that know the PGA DFS ropes know that we can never completely discount Reed, a player that rarely rates high in statistical models, but - as evidenced by what will be his eighth-career Sentry start - the 2018 Masters champion and nine-time PGA Tour winner possesses the rare ability to win anytime he tees it up.
Listen, I'm not particularly fond of Patrick Reed as a person, but I'm willing to completely throw those feelings out the window when it comes to DFS. Like him or not, it's nearly impossible to argue that this guy isn't a prolific winner and terrific closer. This Kapalua layout is extremely forgiving off the tee and features massive greens. It's an environment that lets Reed focus on simply getting the ball in the hole, a skill that might not pop in statistical models, but comes in pretty damn handy when trying to actually win golf tournaments.
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