RADIO
I'm not sure what more can be said about the level of golf that Scottie Scheffler is playing right now. As we've highlighted in this article the last two weeks, Scheffler's output from T2G has been historical for the past year-plus and he's always just an average putting week away from winning any tournament - which is something he's been able to do over the last two weeks since making the change to a mallet-style putter.
Scheffler is the first man in history to successfully defend a PLAYERS title and he's going to be a handful at Augusta National in just a few short weeks. Luckily for this week's Valspar Championship field, the World's No. 1 player has elected to skip the upcoming festivities at Innisbrook Resort.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2024 Valspar Championship
There's always going to be a bit of a natural letdown following an event like THE PLAYERS Championship. That's especially the case this week, as last week's star-studded leaderboard provided the most sparks we've seen on the PGA Tour this year.
While this week's Valspar Championship doesn't possess the same sort of star power or hype as last week's PLAYERS or the "Signature" status of the API, we shouldn't sleep on what a quality event this is and the sort of stern test that the Copperhead Course host venue consistently provides.
Taylor Moore was the surprise winner of last year's Valspar thanks to a gritty final-round performance. He'll look to defend against a field that includes Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, and Justin Thomas. Let's dig into some course history for the Valspar!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Par 71 - 7,340 Yards, Greens: Bermuda (Poa Overseed), Designed By: Larry Packard
Located in Palm Harbor, Florida, the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort is the type of course that could hold a PGA Championship next week and no one would raise an eyebrow. It is a quality golf course and one that routinely ranks as one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour schedule. Its many undulations are unique for a Florida course. Players in this field will face tight, tree-lined fairways, tough doglegs, and greens that are hard to hit.
They must also tackle 'The Snake Pit'...the Copperhead's daunting closing three-hole stretch. This is a less-than-driver course for the bombers, but there are four Par-5s for them to gun at. Interestingly, there are FIVE Par-3s on this layout, which almost forces us to look at something we rarely give much weight to in this article; Par-3 Scoring. As usual, ball striking is a trait we want to target, and is the facet of the game I'm giving the most weight to at Innisbrook. A player's short game and ability to scramble will also be tested this week.
For good measure, I'll also bump long-iron approach play and Par-5 scoring (four Par-5s on this Par 71 layout), while giving serious consideration to those golfers that thrive on Bermuda-grass putting surfaces.
Recent Valspar Winners & Scoring Info
- 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
- 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2020: Cancelled - COVID
- 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
The Horse
Sam Burns
Sam Burns heads to Innisbrook as a two-time Valspar champion and our no-brainer Horse for the week. The LSU product has been downright dominant on this tough Copperhead layout, amassing an impressive 68.85 career scoring average in the Valspar - a mark that's the best in the field among those with three or more starts in this event.
In addition to the elite course history, Burns has flashed plenty of form this year, posting four top-10 finishes across his seven 2024 starts. It's no surprise that he's thrived with the driver and the putter. Burns has gained an average of two strokes OTT and 2.3 strokes putting over his last five tournament appearances. If we see a slight uptick in his iron output - which is very possible on a Copperhead golf course on which he's gained strokes on Approach each of the last three years - Burns could be lifting his third Valspar trophy this week.
The Ponies
Justin Thomas
It was another huge letdown in a big event for JT last week at THE PLAYERS, as he missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass for the first time in his career. However, the fact that he gained an eye-opening 4.7 strokes on Approach over his two rounds tells me that Thomas' game isn't in complete disarray.
Perhaps he can rebound this week in the lower-stress environment of the Valspar. The Kentucky native has enjoyed immense success at Innisbrook, including a T3 in 2021 and a T10 in last year's edition. He's one of just five players in this week's field to have gained more than two strokes total per round in this event over the last five years.
The public perception of JT has likely bottomed out after last week's uninspiring performance, but I don't think he's too far away from playing really good golf. I love this as a buy-low opportunity on a player who's shown flashes of his former self on multiple occasions this year.
Jordan Spieth
A lot of what was mentioned in the Justin Thomas write-up can be applied to Jordan Spieth, who also heads to Valspar fresh off a missed cut at THE PLAYERS. In Spieth's case, that failure carries over almost no weight for me this week, as he's historically struggled at TPC Sawgrass.
However, the Texan has played well at the Copperhead Course, winning the Valspar title in 2015 and scoring a T3 last season upon his return to the event from a multi-year absence. I'm glad that he's coming back again this year, as Spieth finally seems to be figuring out that he should build his schedule around "his courses" - as his best results often come on the same sub-set of layouts - with this being one of his "happy places".
Analyzing Spieth's statistical output can be a fool's errand, though it's fair to say his ball-striking has been mediocre to this point in 2024. However, we all know that he's fully capable of finding his groove at any moment, and that's more than likely going to happen on a course where he's comfortable, such as Innisbrook.
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Adam Schenk
Though not exactly a household name, PGA grinders will likely remember that Adam Schenk put together the best year of his career in 2023, Schenk reached the TOUR Championship last year thanks to a pair of runner-up finishes - one of which came in this event - and four additional top-10 results.
The Indiana native has struggled to match last year's output in 2024, as he's been sluggish out of the gate, logging just three top-25 finishes across his first nine starts of the year. However, something might have clicked into place for Schenk last week at THE PLAYERS, as he recorded his best statistical outing of the year by a wide margin. He gained an impressive 6.5 strokes T2G at TPC Sawgrass, notching positive output in every major SG category outside of putting. He'll now bring that positive momentum to a Copperhead layout on which he scored a runner-up finish last year and a T18 in 2021.
Matthew NeSmith
Believe it or not, Matt NeSmith's 68.38 career scoring average in the Valspar is the lowest in this week's field among those with at least two starts at Innisbrook. He's also one of just five players teeing it up this week who's gained over two strokes total per round in this event over the last five years.
Like the aforementioned Schenk, NeSmith showed some spark last week at TPC Sawgrass, logging an under-the-radar T26 in what was his best finish of 2024 so far. We can try to ride the hot hand with the notoriously streaky South Carolina native, who is fully capable of erupting with a white-hot iron performance on any given week. NeSmith gained two strokes on Approach and 3.3 strokes OTT last week at TPC Sawgrass, and at just $6,500 on DraftKings, I like the idea of him building on that performance at a Copperhead Course where he scored a T3 two years ago.
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