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It's a relatively small slate for a Wednesday night compared to what we are used to during the NBA season, but with seven games on the docket, there are enough options for us to take some shots on some wagers. After a solid finish to last week, I was able to pull my overall record up to .500 on the season and I am poised to push into the green during the final month of the regular season!
I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, March 8th.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 123-123-2
- Against the Spread: 60-61-2
- Game/Team Totals: 12-27
- Moneyline Parlay: 17-24
- Teasers: 31-11
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers (-2) vs. Miami Heat (215.5 total)
My Cavs are small road favorites today in Miami and I tried really hard to convince myself not to officially recommend them but ONCE AGAIN, they pop as the best ATS value on the board.
I have them favored by nearly five points here and I can't look past that difference on a slate of games where there aren't that many other attractive spots.
I rely on the data a lot and it shows that despite some recent hiccups, the Cavs are still a team on the rise and a better overall team than Miami. In fact, the Heat had lost six of seven until their recent back-to-back wins against Atlanta (who are the ultimate pretenders, let's be honest).
These teams have split the season series 1-1, with Miami owning the most recent win by 3 points. This one should be an ugly, low-scoring affair, but I still tip the scales in favor of Cleveland due to the Donovan Mitchell factor, their interior size, and the depth of their bench. Kevin Love gets a chance for revenge against his old team, but let's hope Cleveland got their "bad game" out of their system when they had to go OT against Boston to win on Monday night.
The Pick: Cavs -2 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks (-1.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (234 total)
Dallas is playing a back-to-back here after winning in Utah last night and while they've been terrible ATS in these situations I am going to try to ignore that trend with my pick today.
And here's why. The Pelicans have been pretty downright terrible over the last few weeks and I have zero confidence in them lately after they were once one of my favorite teams to bet on earlier in the season.
New Orleans has a -6 net rating over their last ten games and they've gone 1-6 over their last seven with their lone win coming against a Portland team that has basically been Damian Lillard and no one else in the second half.
Dallas owns the season series 2-1, with their only loss coming last Fall when the Pels had Zion on the court and Luka was still a one-man show. I think the Luka + Kyrie pairing is enough to get it done tonight here against a Pels team that is fading down the stretch. Don't let me down, Dallas.
The Pick: Mavericks -1.5 (-110)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Chicago Bulls (+8) @ Denver Nuggets (227 total)
I was excited to finally find a total to bet on since I have almost nearly given up on them this year. This one looks good and is screaming "bet me" according to my model as I have it projected as low as 220 tonight. It's already moved about 1.5 points already, so grab it while you still can.
Early in the season, I was betting on the Bulls' overs as their defense was atrocious, but they've reversed course this season and as of right now they are actually leading the NBA in cover rate (57%) on UNDERS this season. They've added Patrick Beverley and have a healthy Alex Caruso in the backcourt and have slowed down their pace of play considerably, too.
Denver is an offensive powerhouse, but they're pretty content to play in the half-court through Jokic and I could see them scaling back tonight and matching Chicago's lack of pace. Denver is also MUCH better defensively at home and should be able to stifle Vucevic with Jokic and Zach LaVine with an elite wing defender like KCP.
I like Denver to win, but I won't bet them to cover that many points. Let's just bet the under and hope for a nice, low-scoring game.
The Pick: UNDER 227 (-110)
Favorite Money Line Parlay (Go Big or Go Home): DEN +BOS + CLE + DAL = (+399 DK)
Underdog TEASER (buying 8 points)
OKC +21.5, WAS +11.5, POR +18 = (-120 DK)
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