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John Brubaker's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/18/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
Another day, another dollar in the NBA and we have a smaller six-game slate worth of NBA action on Saturday night. We have some fun matchups tonight, though, with some surprising storylines to monitor.
We have ourselves a handful of clubs coming into this slate on a back-to-back, as the Knicks, Hornets, Pelicans, Bucks, and Bulls will all take to the hardwood for the second consecutive night tonight. We'll see how that affects our picks here.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 6:00 PM EST on Saturday, November 18.
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Dallas Mavericks (+2.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (241 total)
I'll start tonight out in Milwaukee. The Bucks handled business last night down in Charlotte, cruising to a 130-99 victory. Damian Lillard finally broke out and had a solid all-around game, scoring 27 on 9-18 shooting, including 5-10 from three. They project to stay hot tonight against the Mavericks' defense, which ranks 24th in defensive efficiency at 114. The Bucks project to a 116.35 offensive efficiency tonight.
On the other hand, the Mavericks will come into this game with a day of rest after having Friday night off. Similar to Milwaukee, they show positive regression in this one, projecting to 121.85. Milwaukee's defense ranks 25th in the league (114.2). Not only are both teams showing positive regression on the offensive side of the ball, but there's also a not-insignificant projected increase in pace in this matchup, up to 105.96. For all of those reasons, I'm on the over.
The Pick: DAL @ MIL OVER 241 Points (-110, FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Miami Heat (-3) @ Chicago Bulls (213.5 total)
I'll wrap things up on tonight's slate out in Chicago. The Bulls will come into this one in the midst of a three-game losing streak, falling to the Bucks on Monday and dropping a back-to-back against the Magic, both at home. Things are falling apart in Chicago, and I don't think it will be too much longer now until they proverbially "blow it up". As far as tonight goes, they appear to regress in both offensive efficiency (105.35) and defensive efficiency (111.39).
Conversely, the Heat find themselves on quite the heater, as they come in as the winners of seven straight. They've been doing this predominantly without their leading scorer, Tyler Herro. They project some minor positive regression on the offensive side of the ball tonight (111.25), and a very solid amount of positive regression on the defensive end (105.49). This is a clear-cut Heat line, which we can get at -146 on FanDuel.
The pick: Heat ML (-146, FanDuel)
Favorite ML Parlay: MIN + MIA (+146, DK)
Favorite Teaser: DAL +6.5, DAL/MIL o236 (+100, FD)
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