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After a relatively busy weekend of hoops, we are left with just four games on tonight's slate. Three of those games have spreads or 9-10 points, too, so it's not exactly the most ideal slate for betting - but we are going to do it anyway!
Seven out of the eight teams in action tonight are from the Eastern Conference, with the lone Western Conference team being the Kings who host the Cavaliers in the late game.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 7:30 PM EST on Monday, November 13. Follow me for more NBA bets and daily insights @ThunderDanDFS!
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
New York Knicks (+9) @ Boston Celtics (222 total)
This is the second meeting of these two Atlantic Division rivals with the Celtics taking the first game 108-104 in New York. Now Boston gets the Knicks on their homecourt and I think they'll take care of business and win this one.
But laying 9 points against a tough Knicks team - no thanks! I'd much rather target the under here for a few reasons. We already saw the first meeting finish at only 212 points and this game easily has the slowest projected pace of play tonight with only around 98 possessions.
NBA Net Rating (Week 3):
1. Celtics: 13.3
2. Sixers: 11.2
3. Wolves: 9.6
4. Nuggets: 8.9
5. Knicks: 6.5
6. Mavericks: 6.4
7. Rockets: 5.4
8. Magic: 4.0
9. Hawks: 3.3
10. Pacers: 2.8
11. Warriors: 2.7
12. Clippers: 2.0
13. Thunder: 1.8
14. Nets: -0.1
15. Suns: -0.3
16. Heat: -0.8… pic.twitter.com/kujJRlwFtT— RealGM (@RealGM) November 13, 2023
Both of these teams play excellent defense as the Knicks rank second and the Celtics rank third in team defensive rating through the first three weeks of action. The Knicks have been hitting their unders at a 66% rate, too, while Boston has been pretty neutral when it comes to theirs (4-5 on unders, only about a one-point differential).
All signs point to this one being a rare defensive struggle again tonight (rare because so few teams actually play defense anymore!)
The Pick: UNDER 222 total points (-112 DraftKings)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Chicago Bulls (+9) @ Milwaukee Bucks (229.5 total)
It really pains me to do this, but the numbers clearly favor one side of this matchup tonight...and it's not Milwaukee.
Nope, it's the Chicago Bulls - my betting nemesis. I swear that I rarely get the Bulls right, but there are a few reasons to like them to cover tonight.
First, let's talk about why this spread is so high. It's in Milwaukee, Damian Lillard is set to return, the Bulls are on the second half of a back-to-back, and the Bucks are largely viewed as a front-runner for the Eastern Conference title this season.
But, I will just point out that the Bucks have been THE WORST team against the spread this season, covering only once in nine games with a -9.1 point differential. They are 5-4 this year but have not won a single game by more than 8 points.
This is a team with a -3.5 net rating right now. I know they haven't had Lillard lately, but they just dropped two in a row to Indiana and Orlando. They just haven't looked like contenders yet, though the season is long and they'll probably get there eventually.
The Bulls have a tendency to play up to their competition. They'll give the Bucks everything they want tonight and I think they can cover this spread. I won't bet on an outright win, but it wouldn't surprise me either.
The Pick: Bulls +9 (-108 DraftKings)
Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5) @ Sacramento Kings (221 total)
I set my Cavs fandom aside for this one, trust me - the last thing I WANT to do is bet on the Cavs or recommend them. I usually jinx them, but I only have four games to choose from and this is the only game on the slate with a tight spread, too.
The Cavs have a -2 net rating this season and it has been a slow start for them overall. However, they were without their starting center Jarrett Allen for the first five games and their starting point guard Darius Garland for another four. Donovan Mitchell missed a game in there, too.
Watched Cleveland-Golden State this morning. Evan Mobley's defensive tape from last night is ridiculous. Not many bigs I've ever seen make Chris Paul glitch on his pull-up going right like this. pic.twitter.com/qnidi9BpRd
— John Hollinger (@johnhollinger) November 12, 2023
The good news for Cleveland is that their starting lineup is intact and they are starting to look more like the team that finished fourth in the East last year. They are fresh off a 2-0 sweep of the Warriors in the last week and two of their five losses so far this year have been to a really good OKC team.
Meanwhile, the Kings are set to be without their starting point guard De'Aaron Fox for at least one more game. Without Fox, the Kings have to really lean hard on Kevin Heuerter and Malik Monk for offense in their backcourt. Their offense runs through Domantas Sabonis, who is easily one of the most skilled centers in the league.
And the real key for Sacto has been sophomore Keegan Murray. When he's on his game, they have shooters surrounding Sabonis and are hard to stop.
But I think the Cavs match up well here in this one. Allen can match the size and strength of Sabonis in the post and can guard him on the drive to the bucket, too. Sabonis abused Chet Holmgren on Friday night inside, but he can't bully Allen or Mobley like that. And Evan Mobley can lock up Keegan Murray (and just about anyone in the league, he's a legit DPOY candidate).
With Mitchell, Garland, LeVert, and Strus - the Cavs have too much offense for the Kings. I think they could blow the doors off Sacto tonight, but all we need is a three-point win.
The pick: Cavs -2.5 (-112 DraftKings)
Favorite ML Parlay: CLE + TOR + BOS (+162 DK)
Favorite Teaser (buying 8 points): NYK +17, CHI +17, TOR -1.5 (-120 DK)
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