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Welcome back to another player prop picks piece! I'm Thunder Dan and I hope you know by now that Sundays are for strikeouts! Those K props are my favorite, but sometimes we will get into some total outs and walks props occasionally. And while I like the pitching props the most, I will toss out a few of my favorite hitting props, too!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, July 2, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
David Peterson OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
This is the prop for me today and unfortunately, FanDuel doesn't have it listed yet, so I can't post a full breakdown of my ladder strategy, but let's talk about it anyway. Peterson had a rough go of it this season but was sent down to Triple-A as a result. His strikeouts were never an issue, but he was giving up a lot of hard contact and his ERA has ballooned to up over 7.00.
Well, he came back to the majors and pitched six scoreless innings against the Brewers in his first start back. He did walk three and allow five hits, but it was good to see the strikeouts there as well as he fanned five, too.
David Peterson, Nasty Breaking Balls. 😨 pic.twitter.com/pcvRQm4RAY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 28, 2023
Today he will face the Giants, a team with a massive 27% K% against LHP this season. They are incredibly strikeout prone, even when they roll out a bunch of righties and put Joc Pederson and Michael Conforto on the bench. A righty-heavy lineup plays into Peterson's strengths as he actually has a better K% against righties than lefties this season.
Peterson whiffed eight Giants back in April this season, even while allowing seven runs on seven hits. He doesn't have to be perfect today to get five strikeouts. And if you think he could really excel in this matchup, then you should jump on FanDuel later and bet 6+, 7+, and 8+ as alt K props to form what we call the "K ladder"
Kevin Gausman OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-140 DraftKings)
Gausman is a guy that I am going to like to go over 6.5 strikeouts against almost anyone. He's having another phenomenal year with a K% approaching 33% and a 12.9% SwStr%. He now has seven starts with 10+ strikeouts this season, but mixed in there have been a few "blow-up starts" where he gets knocked around early, too. One of those came against these Red Sox back in early May, and while that might keep some people off him today, I'm not going to allow that one piece of data to take me off him here.
The Boston lineup looks a bit different since that game, with Adam Duvall back in the lineup (high K%) and rookie David Hamilton (33% K rate so far) and a chance that Masataka Yoshida sits out today after leaving yesterday's game early. Boston's strikeout rate against RHP has been climbing and as a result, I have Gausman projected for 7.9 strikeouts today. I think Gausman keeps things trending up today, he looked incredibly on the bump last week when he whiffed 12 Giants over six frames.
Taj Bradley OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+105 DraftKings)
I was going to take a week off from betting on Bradley's prop as he got smacked around in his last start by Arizona and allowed six earned runs in just four innings. I had faded him there against Arizona as I pretty much refuse to bet on any pitchers against the Snakes this season. But it was a reminder that Bradley, like anyone else, is vulnerable to getting hit hard and having an early exit. Eury Perez and MacKenzie Gore both suffered the same fate yesterday, too.
But back to Bradley. I have to jump back on him here as it's the perfect spot for him to get right. Seattle has the second-highest K% against RHP over the last two weeks at 28% and I successfully targeted them yesterday with Tyler Glasnow who sailed over his 8.5 strikeout prop with 11 Ks.
Bradley has the strikeout chops to get it done today as his 32% strikeout rate trails only Gausman and Spencer Strider on this slate. We are getting nice odds here, too, though I have a feeling that could shift by later today.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Lane Thomas OVER 1.5 hits +runs + RBI (-135)
I have a really hard time not betting on Thomas when he's facing a lefty, even a good LHP like Ranger Suarez. Thomas has an incredible .488 wOBA and .310 ISO against LHP this season and he's hit this prop now in seven straight games. He's having a career year and just continues to make great contact.
Lane Thomas is an All Star. pic.twitter.com/VLJAcoI4xa
— Talkin Nats (@TalkinNats) June 25, 2023
If the Suarez matchup is making you feel uneasy, just know that Thomas has had some success against him in his career. Thomas is 6-14 with four singles and two doubles and he has yet to strike out. That makes me think we will see Thomas continue to make good contact and the odds are some of those batted balls fall in for hits today.
Jose Altuve OVER 1.5 hits +runs + RBI (-145)
So I am sticking with another leader hitter against a lefty today here with Altuve against Andrew Heaney. Despite his slow start to the season coming off the injury, Altuve has been heating up lately and just had a four-game hitting streak snapped yesterday against Texas.
I think he gets it going again today against the lefty Heaney. Altuve has excellent platoon splits against LHP in his career and some really good BvP against Heaney, too, as he's hit .393 (11-28) with six singles, three doubles, and two home runs.
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