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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/1/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
As per usual, we have a short slate on tap this Thursday, June 1. With just seven games ahead of us through the afternoon and evening, we need to be diligent in drawing value out of such a short schedule!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: ARI (-174)
COL: Chase Anderson| ARI: Zach Davies
It's an NL West tilt tonight in the desert as the Colorado Rockies and Chase Anderson take on the host Arizona Diamondbacks and fellow right-hander Zach Davies.
Acquired from the Rays for starting pitching depth, Anderson has been excellent in three starts with his newest club. The veteran has yielded just three earned runs across those three outings spanning 15 2/3 innings of work. He's allowed just one homer in that time while walking three, albeit against just eight strikeouts.
Anderson's 1.31 ERA on the season in 20 2/3 innings of work is quite surprising considering he posted a 6.38 mark in 24 MLB innings last season and a 4.30 ERA/5.93 FIP with the Reds' Triple-A affiliate before moving to the Rays, and then, the Rockies. However, Anderson is clearly due to regress considering his 5.24 SIERA, a figure nearly four full runs inferior to his surface ERA.
As for Davies, the 30-year-old has been rocked for a 5.68 ERA across three starts and 12 2/3 frames this season. His peripheral figures don't exactly point toward poor luck, either, as he owns a 5.65 FIP and 5.58 SIERA. His 3.4% K-BB% leaves plenty to be desired, as does his 13.8% BB%.
Needless to say, this is a weak starting pitching matchup. Anderson hasn't enjoyed success at the big-league level in some time and Davies clearly doesn't have it early in his 2023 campaign. We also have a couple of bottom-half bullpens on deck with the D-backs ranking 17th with a 4.09 reliever ERA while the Rockies check in at 23rd with a 4.40 bullpen ERA.
The D-backs are also tied for seventh with a .329 wOBA on the season, so they should certainly be able to get to this Rockies pitching staff after hanging six on them on Wednesday night. Add it up and a high-scoring affair should be in order tonight between these two NL West rivals.
Pick: Over 10 total runs (+100, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIN (-148)
CLE: Tanner Bibee| MIN: Pablo Lopez
We have a crucial matchup on tap tonight in Minnesota as the Twins host their AL Central rival Cleveland Guardians. With Cleveland trailing Minnesota by just 3.5 games for first place in the AL Central, this series has the potential to be a swing series on one side or the other.
Getting the ball for the road side is rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee who has impressed so far in his brief big-league tenure. The 24-year-old has turned in a 2.88 ERA in six starts while his 3.02 FIP and 3.99 SIERA are in support of his impressive work to this point. Bibee has displayed excellent control by way of a 6.6% BB% while maintaining a rock-solid 18.4% K-BB% on the campaign.
While the Twins' offense should have their hands full with the youngster, Cleveland bats have a stiff test ahead of them with right-hander Pablo Lopez. After a white-hot start, Lopez has cooled off, for the most part, since his first four starts of the season. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in two of his last four starts but also four earned runs or more in four of his previous seven outings.
For the season, Lopez owns a 4.11 ERA but superior peripherals in the form of a 3.94 FIP and 3.41 SIERA. Furthermore, he's boosted his strikeout rate to a whopping 30% clip which has helped him put forth a dynamite 22.6% K-BB%.
As for the offenses, these groups have largely scuffled. In fact, the Guardians rank dead last with a .287 wOBA on the campaign while the Twins check in at 20th with a .316 mark. In other words, two bottom-10 offensive groups.
Finally, both bullpens have been phenomenal. The Guardians sit second with a 2.99 bullpen ERA while the Twins sit seventh with a 3.65 mark. Easily a pair of top-10 bullpens.
It appears we have the makings for a low-scoring matchup tonight in Minneapolis.
Pick: Under 8 total runs (-106, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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