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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 8-3-1 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for May 20, 2023!
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O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PIT -135
ARI: Brandon Pfaadt | PIT: Mitch Keller
We will begin in Pittsburgh, where a fantastic pitching mismatch is set to take place. Mitch Keller will look to continue his breakout campaign against the Diamondbacks and their touted rookie pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt. Game 1 of this series saw the Pirates explode for a 13-3 victory, and today's result may not look much different.
Mitch Keller has been one of the league's most dominant pitchers this season. He carries a 2.90 xERA, including a .268 xwOBA, .339 xSLG, .212 xBA, 30.1% strikeout rate, 86 mph average exit velocity, and 27.1% hard-hit rate. Keller is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings and has allowed just one earned run over 21 innings pitched in May. The Diamondbacks are no slouch offensively, scoring 5.1 runs per game, but Keller is playing at a Cy Young level in 2023. I'm confident in his ability to keep their bats quiet.
Conversely, Brandon Pfaadt has experienced a brutal first taste of the major leagues. Through three starts, he sports an 8.07 xERA, surrendering six or more earned runs in two of those outings. Pfaadt's struggles include some horrendous numbers, including a .671 xSLG, 18.8% barrel rate, .420 xwOBA, 5.97 xFIP, and a 50% hard-hit rate.
He's a heralded prospect, so Pfaadt probably settles down in the long term. For now, he's a rookie who hasn't figured out big-league hitting. Pittsburgh's offense has cooled off considerably since their hot start to the season, though there's more than enough talent to take advantage of the situation.
Further on the pitching discrepancy, Pittsburgh's bullpen additionally holds a significant advantage in this matchup. The Pirates carry a 3.49 bullpen ERA in 2023, the sixth-best mark in the majors. On the flip side, Arizona's bullpen owns a mediocre 4.43 ERA. Even if Pfaadt does have a relatively quiet day on the mound, he's yet to pitch more than five innings in an outing. His bullpen is live to open the floodgates.
Despite bringing the better batting lineup, today's pitching discrepancy feels like too big a hurdle for the Diamondbacks to overcome. I anticipate another decisive win for the Pirates.
Pick: Pirates -1.5 Run Line (+150) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Rays
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TB -210
MIL: Eric Lauer | TB: Zach Eflin
Building off the trend of mismatches, this game is lopsided in more ways than just pitching. The seemingly unstoppable Tampa Bay Rays host the Milwaukee Brewers following a narrow 1-0 victory on Friday. Given the massive differences between these teams' hitting and pitching, I'm comfortable betting on the Rays' chances to win.
Zach Eflin gets the nod for Tampa Bay, sporting a 3.38 ERA through seven starts this season. That figure includes room for positive regression, considering Eflin's underlying numbers suggest he's suffered from a touch of bad luck -- 2.95 xERA, 3.03 xFIP, .269 xwOBA, .217 xBA, 3.1% walk rate, and 36.3% chase rate. We're now understanding why the Rays gave Eflin the largest free agent contract in franchise history. Squaring off against a middling Brewers offense that scores 4.1 runs per game, I really like Eflin in this spot.
For the Brewers, Eric Lauer takes the hill. Production has been rocky for Lauer, who was demoted to the bullpen last week. He'll get another shot as a starter today, carrying a 4.59 ERA through eight outings in 2023. Unlike Eflin, Lauer's underlying metrics tell us that negative regression is headed his way. He carries a 5.90 xERA, including a .371 xwOBA, .282 xBA, .502 xSLG, 44.2% hard-hit rate, 10.6% walk rate, and 12.4% barrel rate. Given these numbers, Lauer is lucky to have that 4.59 ERA.
The Rays appear poised to quicken Lauer's due regression. Tampa Bay scores 6.1 runs per game, including an outstanding .911 OPS, .251 ISO, and 153 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Yandy Diaz may still be sidelined with his groin injury, but that's the only silver lining for Lauer. Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Isaac Paredes, and the rest of the Rays' deep roster will be more than enough to wreak havoc on the Brewers.
Anything can happen in baseball, but everything points towards a resounding Rays victory in this game.
Pick: Rays -1.5 Run Line (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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