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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/14/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, May 14, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 20-16 (-0.22 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Twins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIN -116
CHC: Marcus Stroman | MIN: Louie Varland
We managed to grab a sweep on Friday, and now we'll look to finish the week strong with a pair of NRFIs here for Sunday, starting out in Minnesota.
The Cubs will send Marcus Stroman (2-3, 2.28 ERA) to the mound. Stroman has been both incredibly effective and efficient thus far into the season, especially in the first inning. He's a perfect three-for-three on the road and a perfect eight-for-eight overall in terms of leaving opponents off of the scoreboard in 2023. He'll take on a Twins lineup that's scored in just three of 19 home first innings, in seven of 38 opening frames overall, and in just one of their last ten games.
The Twins will send right-handed Louie Varland to the mound. Varland (0-0, 4.32 ERA) is making just his fourth start of the season, and unlike Stroman, has relatively struggled in the opening frame this season. Despite being perfect in his only home start, he is 0-2 to the NRFI on the road. Fortunately, he gets a home start this afternoon against a Cubs lineup that's only scored in four of 16 road games, and in just 12 of 38 overall, including just three of their last ten.
We're getting relatively solid odds on the NRFI here on FanDuel, where the odds sit at -136. My model gives the NRFI a 64.88% chance of hitting here, good for implied odds of -185.
Pick: First-Inning UNDER 0.5 Runs (-136), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.36 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Dodgers
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: LAD -174
SD: Ryan Weathers | LAD: Tony Gonsolin
We'll head out west for our second play of the day, and we'll take a look at an "unlikely" NRFI. Normally I don't look to take NRFIs on plays with a total greater than 8.5, but I do see some value here.
The Padres will send lefty Ryan Weathers (1-1, 2.50 ERA) to the mound for his fourth start of the season. The former seventh overall pick has been good in the first inning this season, allowing a tally in just one of three starts overall, and is a perfect one-for-one in road starts. He'll get a tough matchup against the Dodgers here, who have scored in the opening frame in eight of 19 home games as well as 17 of 39 games overall, including six of their last ten.
He'll take on Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 1.93 ERA), who is also making his fourth start of the season. Some would say that Gonsolin has been very lucky throughout his career, with his ERA always being much lower than his "expected" numbers. Nevertheless, he's a perfect three-for-three in terms of keeping opponents off the scoreboard in the first inning this season, which includes his lone home start. He'll take on a Padres lineup that's scored in just five of 18 road first innings and in 13 of 39 overall, including three of their last ten.
As I mentioned previously, I consider this one "unlikely" given the higher run total. I wanted to take a look at the projected wOBA and hard contact stats to be sure. The Padres bring in a projected .306 wOBA and 21.99% hard contact rate, while the Dodgers bring in a projected .275 wOBA and 28.6% hard contact rate. My model gives the NRFI a 64.45% chance of hitting here, good for implied odds of -181. FanDuel is giving us odds of +114 here, so we're going to take the expected value and run with it.
Pick: First-Inning UNDER 0.5 Runs (+114), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.14 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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