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Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/28/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
Every good team needs a couple of reliable bats off the bench, so I'm getting the call to pinch hit on MLB Betting picks today as my teammate John Brubaker needs a day off to rest that weary back of his.
All kidding aside, I'm pumped for this 15-game slate today and I'm not about to let some rainy weather (check weather reports as multiple games are in jeopardy) prevent me from making some money with MLB bets! Like John, Casey, Brenton, and the rest of our DFS and betting team, I am betting on baseball every day of the week so you know I have some games already circled that I want to wager on today!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Philadelphia vs. Houston
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: HOU -145
PHI: Aaron Nola | HOU: Framber Valdez
We get a nice pitchers' duel (and therefore a total under 8 runs) in this game as both teams roll out their aces tonight. I suppose you could argue that they are co-aces as Philly also has Wheeler and Houston also has Javier, but you get my point.
The difference here for me is that Valdez has been as good as promised this season, while Nola is off to a lackluster start. Nola's SIERA is 4.79, which is very un-Nola-like and raises a lot of doubt in my mind in his ability to slow down a good Houston offense.
Meanwhile, Philly's offense continues to underperform, too, as they've averaged just 4.38 runs per contest this season. No Bryce Harper or Rhys Hoskins has really hurt and they've been forced to play hitters like Jake Cave and Edmundo Sosa way more often than they'd like.
I'll take Valdez in this matchup all day, especially at home, and I don't mind paying a little juice on this line either.
Pick: Houston ML (-145, DK Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Arizona vs. Colorado
O/U: 11 | Moneyline: Arizona -120
ARI: Merrill Kelly | COL: Kyle Freeland
Let's address one thing right away here. The Colorado Rockies have been one of the worst teams in baseball through the first month. They sit at 8-18 with the fewest wins in the National League and an NL-worst -47 run differential.
They average just 3.77 runs per game and send lefty Kyle Freeland to the mound today, who sports a 5.04 SIERA. They simply aren't getting it done on offense and they don't have anyone in their rotation (outside maybe German Marquez on a good day) who inspires fear in opposing hitters.
Meanwhile, the Snakes are...dare I say, pretty good? At 14-12, they sit atop the NL West for now and have been one of the more surprising teams in baseball so far. Their young collection of hitters has been much better on offense this year so far with the dynamic Corbin Carroll leading the way. Merrill Kelly is a solid pitcher who rarely gets blown up, he's allowed more than three earned runs in just one of his five starts this season.
These odds feel like a bargain to me, Arizona is clearly the better all-around team and they have the advantage on both offense and pitching tonight.
Pick: Arizona ML (-120, DK Sportsbook)
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