RADIO
John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/10/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday RotoBallers, and welcome to the 2023 MLB season! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly (no pun intended), going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
Attention, fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, April 10, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 6-4-0 (+1072 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL -180
OAK: JP Sears | BAL: Kyle Gibson
We took a small hit to the units yesterday as Connor Overton came up just short in the first inning, allowing Kyle Schwarber to score on a Nick Castellanos double. We'll take a look at a pair of NRFIs once again today, starting out in Baltimore.
The Athletics come into town and will be sending JP Sears to the mound this afternoon. Sears fared fine in his first start against Cleveland last Tuesday, tossing 4.2 innings while allowing three runs in the process. More importantly, he held Cleveland scoreless in the first inning, which he's done in 12 of 13 starts dating back to the beginning of the 2022 season.
Conversely, the Orioles will be sending their "ace" Kyle Gibson to the mound. Gibson's 2-0 to start the young season, and he's coming into his third start with a 1-1 "NRFI record." He was good in the first inning in 2022, keeping opponents off the board in 23 of 31 starts. I'll back him here against the Athletics, because well, they're the Athletics.
We're getting really good odds on this line, at just -118 on FanDuel Sportsbook. My data model gives the first inning under a 66.93% chance of hitting, good for "implied" odds of -202. I'll place this to win one unit.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.18 units to win 1 unit.
Sports Betting Promo Offers
Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Phillies
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PHI -104
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | PHI: Matt Strahm
We'll head out to Philly for the second NRFI of the day.
The visiting Marlins will be sending Sandy Alcantara to the mound. Sandy needs no introduction, but I'll give him one anyways. He kept opponents off the board in the first inning in 14 of 16 road starts in 2022, and 26 of 32 starts overall. He's 2-0 to the first inning under in his first two starts of the season and is coming off a complete-game shutout. This is a premium "runback" spot against the Phillies here.
Speaking of the Phillies, they'll be sending lefty Matt Strahm to the mound. Strahm, who was supposed to be a reliever this season, has seen his role increased due to injuries in the Philly rotation. He pitched extremely well this season, not allowing a run and allowing just one hit across five innings of work in the early season. We have another strong runback candidate here, with the Marlins handing us a first-inning under loss last week.
We're getting another good line here on FanDuel, with the first inning under at -128. My data model is projecting the under to hit at a 68.23% rate, good for implied odds of -215.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-128) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.28 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
More Fantasy Baseball Analysis
