X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Five 2015 Busts Who Will Bounce Back

It happens every year: A bunch of players produce way above or below expectations, and we spend the entire offseason arguing over whether or not the improvement or decline was genuine. Separating the wheat from the chaff when it comes to last year’s performances can be the difference between a championship season and bitter, abject failure for your fantasy team. After all, if you ain't first, you're last.

All week long, I’ll be taking a look at last season’s surprises, be they breakout or bust, and offering my thoughts on each player’s fantasy outlook for this year. Having covered last year's breakouts, it's time for last season's disappointments. Today, we'll talk about players who should rebound in 2016.

Editor's Note: Be sure to also head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We have released our new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings - mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more! It's all in one place, and all free.

2016 Bounceback Candidates

Jonathan Lucroy

Lucroy entered last season coming off the best performance of his career, which was a sequel to the career year he had in 2013. Perhaps even more importantly for our purposes, he produced these numbers while playing virtually every day, a rare feat for catchers. And hey, check out this table:

2013-14 AVG OBP SLG R HR RBI SB
Lucroy .291 .357 .460 132 31 151 13
Buster Posey .303 .368 .470 133 37 161 2

 

Unfortunately, Lucroy missed about a third of the season with a broken toe and a concussion. When he did play, he failed to reach the level he had in the previous two seasons. The end result was a pedestrian .717 OPS and a 13th-place finish among catchers in the Yahoo game.

His batted ball data didn’t change much from previous years, though he missed more often on pitches outside the zone and had more trouble than usual catching up to fastballs. These led to an increase of nearly five percent in his strikeout rate, though he remained above-average in this area.

Given the steadiness of most of his peripherals and the fact that he’s still only 29, a rebound seems likely. Lucroy could also see a boost in value if and when the Brewers trade him to a contender.

 

Marcell OzunaJorge Soler

I wrote about these two back in November and my opinion hasn’t changed. Both players struggled last season, when they were expected to become fantasy stalwarts. Both demonstrated improvement as the year wore on, and each players’ underlying metrics give reasons for optimism that they’ll beat their eerily similar Steamer projection.

Soler’s team context is significantly better, but Ozuna’s ADP of 305 suggests he isn’t even being drafted in the majority of leagues. Soler’s ADP is currently 177. Either outfielder would make for a fine buy-low opportunity.

 

Jayson Werth

Let's get the bad stuff out of the way. Werth is entering his age-37 season. He's averaged just 111 games per season since 2012 due to a variety of injuries. And 2015 was the worst season of his career. The end is nigh for my favorite active player; there can be no argument. Nothing gold can stay, after all.

That said, Werth was pretty awesome in the two seasons prior to 2015, hitting .304/.396/.491 with 41 homers, 19 steals, and 333 R+RBI in 276 games. Even last year, he maintained his typically excellent plate discipline and batted ball profile.

The driving force behind his struggles last season, besides the usual injury issues, was a .253 BABIP, 72 points below his career rate. This was only the second time he'd ever posted a mark below .300, and the underlying numbers simply don't support it.

Werth is basically a lock to get hurt and miss time at this point. When healthy, however, he’s a good bet to outperform his current ADP of 327.

 

Hanley Ramirez

Ramirez hit 10 homers in April and finished the month with a .999 OPS, helping the Red Sox to a 12-10 record despite awful showings from the pitching staff. A few days into May, he suffered a shoulder injury that appeared to hamper him for the remainder of the year. He hit just nine home runs from that point on, slumping to a .249/.291/.426 overall line. Combined with his disastrous defense in left field, Ramirez was worth nearly two wins below replacement level in the first season of a four-year, $88 million contract.

Boston can't put him back in left field without inciting a riot, and with fellow albatross Pablo Sandoval entrenched at third and David Ortiz refusing to age at DH, they'll have to stick Ramirez at first base unless they can find a trade partner. So for those scoring at home, he'll be learning a new position for the second straight year and coming off a major injury. Oh, and he's no longer eligible at shortstop

But as awful as he was last season, it seems fair to attribute much of that to the shoulder injury. He rushed back and it never quite healed. The Ruthian home run pace was never going to last, but his performance out of the gate seemed to vindicate those who anticipated a big year from him with the luxury of playing half his games in Fenway.

And over the prior two seasons, Ramirez put up a .308/.382/.525 with 33 homers, 24 steals, and 254 R+RBI in just 848 plate appearances. Steamer doesn't quite see him getting back to that level, but his projection (.284/.345/.475, 18 homers, eight steals) would make him a useful player in most formats.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Hunter Goodman

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Stephen Curry

"Not Even Close" to Retirement
Jonathan Kuminga

Linked to Bulls, Heat
Kevin Durant

Has "No Desire" to be Traded to Minnesota
Isaac Paredes

Returns as DH on Monday
New York Giants

Mike Kafka Expected to Reclaim Play-Calling Duties
Jon Runyan

Limited During Minicamp
Saquon Barkley

Feels Great Physically
Justin Simmons

Panthers Have Talked With Justin Simmons
Jordan Addison

Trial Date Set for July 15
New York Jets

Jets Sign Kingsley Jonathan, Marquis Hayes
Jarace Walker

Remains Sidelined for Game 5
Justin Verlander

Returning to the Rotation on Wednesday
Tony Finau

Finishes Tied For 38th at U.S. Open
Bud Cauley

Misses The Cut at U.S. Open
Cameron Young

Finishes Tied For Fourth at U.S. Open
J.J. Spaun

Wins U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 12th at U.S. Open
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Second at U.S. Open
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 42nd at U.S. Open
Vershon Lee

Vikings Ink Undrafted Offensive Lineman Vershon Lee
Luke Clanton

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
San Francisco 49ers

C.J. West Signs Rookie Deal with San Fran
Jaylen Warren

Training to Handle Larger Workload
Giancarlo Stanton

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Will Campbell

Ends Minicamp as Top Left Tackle
Sam Cosmi

Making Good Progress From Torn ACL
Kamaru Usman

Gets Back In The Win Column
Adonai Mitchell

Impresses at Minicamp
Joaquin Buckley

Winning Streak Comes To An End
Miranda Maverick

Drops Decision At UFC Atlanta
Bradley Chubb

Fully Healed, Looking Disruptive
Jonnu Smith

Contract Talks "Still Fluid"
Rose Namajunas

Wins Decision At UFC Atlanta
Andre Petroski

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Edmen Shahbazyan

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Raoni Barcelos

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Chase Elliott

Ends Mexico City with A Great Finish of Third
Christopher Bell

has A Strong Runner-Up Performance At Mexico City
Chase Briscoe

Wild Day Ends with A Top-10 Finish
Michael McDowell

Leaves Mexico City with A Top-Five Finish
Cody Garbrandt

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Brundage

Defeated After Accidental Clash Of Heads
Cody Brundage

Mansur Abdul-Malik Defeats Cody Brundage By Technical Decision
Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on his Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road-Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup-Series Comeback at Mexico City
Grant Holmes

Punches Out 15 in Loss
Elly De La Cruz

Goes Yard in Fourth Straight Game
Will Vest

Dealing With Finger Injury
Jackson Merrill

Placed on Seven-Day Concussion Injured List
J.J. McCarthy

Looking "a Lot Stronger"
Shohei Ohtani

Will Be Dodgers' Starting Pitcher Monday
Roki Sasaki

Shut Down From Throwing
Garrett Wilson

Receives New Contract Offer
Jordan Hicks

Headed to Boston
Kyle Harrison

Traded to Red Sox
Travis Kelce

Slims Down During the Offseason
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Restart Contract Discussions
Brady House

Nationals Promoting Brady House to Major Leagues
Rafael Devers

Traded to San Francisco
Logan Gilbert

to Start on Monday
Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF