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Who Ya Got: Soler or Ozuna?

With the staggering influx of young talent in the game today, it's a great time to be a baseball fan. But as much as it may seem like every kid was a star in 2015, there were some who struggled in a way that's more in line with how things used to be. Today and tomorrow, we'll look at a pair of under-25 outfielders who turned in disappointing seasons and assess their fantasy value going forward. Today's subjects: Jorge Soler and Marcell Ozuna.

 

Soler

Soler got a cup of coffee with the Cubs in 2014. The then 22 year old Cuban phenom gave the Wrigley faithful and fantasy owners alike plenty to get excited about, slashing .292/.330/.573 with five homers in just 97 plate appearances. While his fantastic walk rates didn't carry over from the minors, the rest of his game sure did. Kris Bryant was a near-unanimous choice among prognosticators for NL Rookie of the Year honors - and he ultimately won a unanimous vote - but Soler got attention as a dark-horse candidate for the award.

Soler stumbled out of the gate and never really recovered, ultimately turning in an underwhelming .262/.324/.399 line with 10 homers in 101 games. His strikeouts spiked while his power disappeared, and he looked overmatched at times, particularly against breaking pitches. His 67.8% contact rate was 207th of 211 hitters with at least 400 PA, and his swinging strike percentage was higher than all but seven of those players. So the problem here isn't exactly hard to identify.

Despite the drastic reduction in power, Soler's batted ball data holds plenty of reason for optimism. We've established the contact issues, but when he did get wood on the ball, Soler generally crushed it. Nearly 28% of his batted balls were line drives, and his 35.9% hard-hit rate put him in the top 30 among everyday players. This would seem to support his .361 BABIP, which kept his production from completely cratering. Steamer anticipates some regression there, but also a rebound in his power and strikeout rate. Given the improvement Soler had already begun to show in his plate discipline in the second half and postseason, that seems like a smart bet.

 

Ozuna

Ozuna, like Soler, was a trendy pick in fantasy drafts last spring. He'd batted .269/.317/.455 with 23 homers and 85 RBI as a sophomore in 2014 and, along with Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich, he was expected to form possibly the best outfield in baseball. The Marlins got some love as a dark horse contender as a result. But nothing played out as expected. Stanton missed half the year with injuries, Yelich and Ozuna struggled mightily in the first half, and Miami stumbled to their sixth consecutive losing season.

While Stanton was his typically tremendous self when healthy and Yelich recovered to post similar numbers to his 2014 output, Ozuna was demoted to the minors midseason. He finished with a middling .259/.308/.383 line and just 10 homers, and it's been widely reported that the Marlins are shopping him. (They may also be shopping Jose Fernandez, because they're the Marlins.)

As with Soler, there are some positive indicators under the hood. Ozuna actually trimmed his strikeout rate by four percent, replacing whiffs almost entirely with line drives. His profile didn't change much otherwise, as he maintained a fairly balanced spray chart. While his hard-hit rate was down, it remained above average. He also didn't give back most of the gains he'd made in 2014 in flyball distance, and his bat speed continued to be excellent. Finally, Ozuna looked much better in the second half, hitting .278/.320/.469 with six homers in 162 plate appearances. Steamer likes him as a bounceback candidate for 2016, projecting him to recover most of the points lost from his OPS and ISO while sustaining the lower strikeout rate.

 

Who Ya Got?

Both players should represent great buy-low opportunities for 2016, and their projections are eerily similar. I expect them each to outperform those projections, with Soler producing slightly more value thanks to the strength of his supporting cast.

 

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