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John Johnson breaks down winners and losers of 2025 NFL free agency from a fantasy football perspective. Which players will be in desirable/undesirable situations?
The biggest NFL free-agency frenzy of 2025, namely the first few days of free agency, is now in the books, so the majority of the biggest moves have been made by now. There are still a few big names that haven't signed yet, but most of the most coveted players have found new landing spots ahead of the 2025 NFL season.
Of course, every time a player goes to a new team, they invariably step into a situation that's at least somewhat different than it was with their previous team. For some, it's hard to predict just how different things will be, but sometimes, it's clear that things are either worse or better than they were before. And plenty of players from this year fit on both sides of that bill.
It's highly relevant for fantasy football. Just last season, we saw running backs Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry go from terrible offenses (the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans, respectively) to some of the league's best offensive units (the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens, respectively), and the results were that they both had monster seasons. The situation makes a huge difference, so let's break down the biggest winners and losers of 2025 NFL free agency ahead of next season.
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Free Agency Winners
Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Easily the biggest winner of free agency for fantasy football was Adams, who signed a two-year contract with the Los Angeles Rams. He'll immediately become a target hog on one of the best offenses in the NFL, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford and engineered by head coach Sean McVay. Stafford is still playing at a high level in the twilight of his career, and dips in his 2024 stats from the previous season can be attributed to a rash of injuries to his offensive line and wide receiver group.
Run block and pass block composite ratings pic.twitter.com/JKR8xH99Wr
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 7, 2025
The OL didn't pass-protect very well, and wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both missed significant time due to ailments. But Stafford persisted nonetheless and led his team to nearly upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles, the eventual Super Bowl champions, in the Divisional Round. They probably would have won if running back Kyren Williams hadn't fumbled the game away.
Sean McVay sent Davante Adams narrated highlight tapes of his routes to recruit him to come to the Rams 😂@tae15adams @RamsNFL pic.twitter.com/vTfzEPKPO8
— NFL (@NFL) March 13, 2025
Speaking of happier topics, McVay is one of the brightest offensive minds the league has ever seen. He's inspired changes in offenses around the league, and the McVay/Shanahan (referencing San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan) coaching tree is massive. Nearly every season, the Rams are playoff contenders, and they consistently have a great offense when they're not dealing with a ton of injuries.
McVay has a very clear plan for Adams, which will likely involve using him a ton. He could flirt with around 10 targets per game, and in an elite offense with one of the best WRs in the league playing on the same team, defenses should struggle mightily to contain him.
17+ Minutes of Davante Adams Route Running
No particular order of clips.Personally, my favorite wideout to study. pic.twitter.com/q2juKyAWNh
— Mike Vannucci (@WRCoachVannucci) August 13, 2024
Adams is one of the greatest route-running technicians the NFL has ever seen. In the hands of someone like McVay, he will be extremely dangerous next season, and his fantasy football value should skyrocket as a result. He's 32 years old and will turn 33 in late December, but his time with the New York Jets showed that he had plenty of good play ahead of him.
Adams is the biggest winner of free agency by far.
Najee Harris, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Harris gets an immediately upgraded offense overall, a better offensive line, and will play for another offensive coordinator in the Los Angeles Chargers' Greg Roman who implements a run-first philosophy. It's just like Pittsburgh Steelers OC Arthur Smith, who Harris played for in 2024.
And there isn't much backfield competition behind Harris right now, as the team released RB Gus Edwards, who was terrible last season anyway. Rookie RB Kimani Vidal doesn't seem to have the requisite athleticism to be a good NFL back, so he's likely not a threat to Harris' workload anyway.
Chargers expected to sign RB Najee Harris to one-year deal worth up to $9.25 million. (via @rapsheet, @mikegarafolo, @Tompelissero) pic.twitter.com/g3cCBkyHZT
— NFL (@NFL) March 11, 2025
Harris has played in 17 games in all of his four seasons with the Steelers. It's hard not to imagine that the Chargers love his blue-collar, workman's play style, and his durability as well.
This also bodes well for Harris taking the vast majority of the backfield work like RB J.K. Dobbins did last season. It doesn't appear that Los Angeles is interested in re-signing Dobbins, either, as he's still a free agent.
One free agent whose market is interesting to me is JK Dobbins. Ton of injury history, obviously, but rushed for 905 yards and 9 TDs in 13 games last season, playing on a one/year, $1.6M deal.
May not be the flavor the Broncos are looking for, but he is intriguing nonetheless.
— Nick Kosmider (@NickKosmider) March 11, 2025
It's unclear what the Chargers plan on doing in the draft. But they have plenty of other issues to address, most notably pass-catcher. Among their wide receivers and tight ends in 2024, it was only Ladd McConkey who consistently got open, caught the passes thrown his way, and helped the offense move the chains.
The playoff game against the Houston Texans was a stark reminder of what happens when a team doesn't have enough good WRs and TEs and goes against a good pass defense.
Mike Williams, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
I'm not sure Williams has much left in the tank. He has a long and extremely concerning injury history, didn't play well in 2024 (despite coming off a torn ACL), and will turn 31 years old in the middle of the 2025 season (early October).
But this is a great landing spot for him. The Chargers don't have much talent at pass-catcher, and Williams reunited with the quarterback who made him a great fantasy option in seasons past.
Chargers, WR Mike Williams agree to one-year deal with $6M max value. (via @TomPelissero) pic.twitter.com/IppawrkdwR
— NFL (@NFL) March 13, 2025
Given the overall state of the receiver free-agent market and how this year's class is seen as lacking depth and talent, it seems plausible that L.A. will focus on other positions in the draft and kick the can down the road here, relying on quarterback Justin Herbert to play a ton of hero ball and carry his team on his back in the passing game while the aforementioned RB Harris plods relentlessly on the ground.
Mike Williams has been one of the leagues best deep threats since coming into the NFL in 2017.
At 6-4, 220 pounds, Williams is a throwback X on the perimeter. Crazy combination of body control and concentration at the catch point. 91 (!) career contested catches.
Ball Winner... pic.twitter.com/YphMiyNKV5
— Derrick (@Steelers_DB) March 18, 2024
How much of his old play he can recapture is questionable, but he'll be a nice fill-in for what the team wanted WR Quentin Johnston to do. It let go of Williams and drafted Johnston, but it couldn't have gone more poorly.
While Johnston had a few touchdowns and one or two "big" games in 2024, he's largely been a massive failure, mainly because he has hands made of marble. He also plays smaller than his size. The strengths that he was supposed to have are somehow weaknesses.
So, Williams, if he can get healthy and hasn't lost most of his explosiveness, strength, and vertical jump, should once again be a nice deep threat and contested-catch specialist. He's 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, and his skill set nicely complements that of McConkey.
I like this landing spot for him a lot, though I do hope the Chargers draft a young WR in the draft, and it could hurt Williams' fantasy value if that rookie played well.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Baltimore Ravens
This is a win for both the Ravens and Hopkins. Though he had one nice game with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2024, he was mostly underutilized. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid forced him into a rotation, which limited his snaps, targets, and receptions, naturally. He should get a bit more playing time with the Ravens in 2025, though maybe not a whole lot.
.@DeAndreHopkins is a Baltimore Raven 😈 pic.twitter.com/nm2OJ3pYdB
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) March 14, 2025
I almost put him in the "Honorable Mentions" section, though, because he'll likely be the team's fourth receiving option. He'll be behind wide receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, both much younger wideouts who have shown promise but lack much volume, and tight end Mark Andrews, who is the team's clear best red-zone and end-zone target, given his size and athleticism.
I don't know what D-Hop's role will be, exactly, but I'm not expecting it to be huge. And he'll be in a run-first offense. It's just that quarterback Lamar Jackson was such an efficient passer in 2024, and his elite mobility and speed forced defenses to scoot their linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage, allowing the Ravens pass-catchers to get open much more easily.
He's also still a solid short-yardage and TD target, which helps. He's a nice addition to the offense and gets a slight upgrade in the situation.
Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets
It looks like Fields will be the starting QB for the Jets moving forward, considering the size of the contract he got. I'm not super excited about the offensive environment he'll be in or the talent around him, nor do I think he's set for another elite fantasy season, but he'll be the starter, so that's a win in itself.
Welcome our new young QB Justin Fields ‼️#jets #nyjets @justnfields pic.twitter.com/kivmlC6xED
— LyleTheEgg (@LyleTheEgg) March 11, 2025
I doubt this move works out nicely. But there's nothing to destroy a fantasy player's value like being a backup and not seeing the field. Fields will be fantasy-relevant in 2025, we just don't know how much yet before we see the offense. His rushing upside is massive, so even if he's a terrible passer (he is), he can still put up big fantasy numbers. I don't imagine it will be very consistent.
Evan Engram, TE, Denver Broncos
Engram will join a team with a good quarterback in Bo Nix, a good offensive-minded head coach in Sean Payton, and one with less target competition than he had last season with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
It might not be easy for him to be the TE2 in PPR scoring again like he was in 2023, but he's in a better place now than he would have been if he had stayed with the team that now has sensational wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. hogging targets.
TE Evan Engram signing two-year deal with Broncos. (via @rapsheet) pic.twitter.com/SRaRLJ1Lhq
— NFL (@NFL) March 12, 2025
Engram is a great fit for the Broncos. For fantasy football, Payton's love of getting good tight ends involved in the passing game will be a boon for him. Jimmy Graham's monster seasons in New Orleans were under the tutelage of Payton, after all, and he's not afraid of calling a ton of plays that send the ball the TE's way.
Honorable Mentions: Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Warren, Aaron Jones, Geno Smith, Zach Ertz
Free Agency Losers
Cooper Kupp, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Kupp may have a better season in 2025 than he did in 2024. He'll be 32 years old before the season starts, though, and with a long history of injuries under his belt, I think it might be difficult for him to pull off.
Kupp has hamstring strains, several ankle sprains, an MCL sprain, a torn ACL, and nerve issues in his history, and he's now playing for a team with an objectively worse quarterback and offensive line situation.
Cooper Kupp career:
2017-2020: Yeah he's OK I guess
2021: Greatest player in the history of sports
2022-2024: Yeah he's OK I guess— Barry (@BarryOnHere) March 14, 2025
With the Rams, he was force-fed targets until the wheels fell off. Getting phased out of a Sean McVay offense and subsequently released is a very bad sign. And he'll join a team with another receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who plays primarily out of the slot.
Perhaps they will split reps or move JSN mostly outside, but who knows? The team also signed WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, primarily for his speed, who should play mostly outside.
Not sure I understand this one. Seattle has claimed to be looking to run more 2 WR sets/12 personnel. However, Kupp has been pigeon-holed to the slot his entire career, so this move doesn’t really add up.
Furthermore, JSN has been atop the league in slot rate in his 2 seasons so… https://t.co/tWk0UdxUzL
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 14, 2025
The offense could be extremely awkward in the 12 personnel sets it wants to run. It's unlikely that JSN will be taken off the field for these, and what's the point in signing the speedster MVS just to have him off the field when the team has two WRs on either perimeter and none in tight or in the slot? Kupp could see fewer reps than we think he will.
I'm not sure he'll even be a full-time player, or mostly full-time, in 2025. I'm suspicious his usage won't be conducive to fantasy success, and rather than being in an offense that's willing to force nearly all its volume to its top guys, he'll be utilized more sparingly.
In addition, the quarterback situation is abysmal, as the team signed QB Sam Darnold, who completely crumbled under duress in his last two games, to play behind one of the league's worst offensive lines.
The Seahawks offensive line:
- Bradford leads all guards in sacks (6) and penalties (9).
- Forsythe missed 2 weeks and STILL leads the NFL in pressures allowed (35).
- Run game averaging 2.5 YPC since week 6.
- 7 sacks allowed
Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards. pic.twitter.com/PNY12A1moG
— Seahawks Today (@TodaySeahawks) November 4, 2024
I do have a pause here. While I think Darnold was a clear downgrade from Smith, I trust offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and think he's one of the brightest OCs in the league.
What I still don't believe in is the offensive line, which was also terrible at run-blocking. That could disrupt the plans of running the ball heavily and force the Seahawks to pass more. That would be fine for the receivers, I guess, but could lead to a bad unit as a hole.
a big red flag that the Rams — who have one of the league’s best analytics departments — completely shut the door on any chance of Cooper Kupp returning
a guy that Sean McVay and Les Snead and everyone else in the building absolutely loved https://t.co/PqMAKovcih
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) March 15, 2025
Not a great spot for Kupp to be in unless Kubiak is a genius. The fact that the Rams let him go isn't a great sign, either. I believe he's completely cooked, but I guess we'll see.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
Hubbard easily had his best season as a pro in 2024. He took the vast majority of the workload in his backfield, largely due to the lack of Jonathon Brooks playing time. He came into the season with an ACL tear and re-tore it after just a few weeks of limited volume.
This allowed Hubbard to rack up 1,195 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns and catch 43 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown. He finished as the overall RB14 in full-PPR scoring despite a limited pass-catching role and missing two contests.
Chuba Hubbard Week 16
• 25 Carries
• 152 Rushing
• 2 Rushing TDs
• 6.1 YPC
• Game Winning TDHave you a Day Sir pic.twitter.com/I6cfuAxj5f
— IAmWestsideFetti 💙🖤🤟🏾 (@4MR_Fetti) December 22, 2024
I still like Hubbard's situation a lot, to be fair. The Panthers offensive line was one of the best run-blocking units of 2024, largely due to the excellent play of their offensive guards.
Specifically, the signing of left guard Robert Hunt, one of the league's elite run-blockers in 2023 with the Miami Dolphins, propelled Carolina's run game to new heights. Hubbard averaged 2.6 yards before contact per rush attempt, which was seventh in the NFL among RBs with 200 or more rushes.
Panthers signing RB Rico Dowdle to one-year deal worth up to 6.25M. (via @RapSheet, @MikeGarafolo) pic.twitter.com/CjAde37V1b
— NFL (@NFL) March 12, 2025
But Panthers head coach Dave Canales likely hadn't envisioned giving such a big workload to one RB, at least not toward the end of the season. Brooks was set up to join a committee with Hubbard, and the plan was likely to have them utilized much more evenly.
That didn't work out because of Brooks' injury, and he could miss the majority of the 2025 season. So, Carolina signed RB Rico Dowdle in free agency.
Dowdle is actually analytically (and production-wise, other than rushing touchdowns) very similar to Hubbard. Both are around the same age, are between 6-foot and 6-foot-1, are between 210 and 215 pounds, and have similar running styles and skill sets.
Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle in 2024:
+ Both Top 14 in EPA/Rush
+ Both Top 8 in Rush Success Rate
(See screenshots)These two both also finished Top 8 in yards after contact per attempt, with Chuba at 2.70 and Rico at 2.64.
The newly formed duo has some notable similarities… pic.twitter.com/G2pmjG0URH
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 13, 2025
One of the best data-driven analysts on X, Dataroma, broke this down nicely for us. Hubbard and Dowdle being used so interchangeably certainly won't be good for Hubbard's production. The tandem should be excellent overall, but the dip in volume will certainly provide a hit to both of their fantasy values.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers
I'd imagine both these backs will be pretty efficient and both have decent value during the season, but it might be hard to predict which to start in any given week.
Regarding Dowdle, he takes less of a hit because he had such little touchdown production in 2024. This section will be very short, though, because most of the logic was explained above.
No way we just swapped Miles Sanders for Rico dowdle 😭😭 https://t.co/Wiqj4a5DBO
— ldltszn (@ldltszn) March 14, 2025
As an aside here ... holy mother of god, Jerry Jones is terrible.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs re-signed running back Kareem Hunt to a one-year deal. I can't imagine why they'd do this unless they thought Pacheco might never return to his previous form, realized that it wasn't a great idea to give him workhorse volume moving forward, or were impressed enough with Hunt's production and consistency to give him another crack at a job within this committee backfield.
Chiefs re-signing RB Kareem Hunt to one-year, $1.5M deal. (via @rapsheet, @tompelissero) pic.twitter.com/sLyBnxrwyY
— NFL (@NFL) March 14, 2025
This is terrible for Pacheco dynasty fantasy football managers and also delivers his value a big hit in redraft. It was widely thought that Hunt was just a one-year rental while Pacheco recovered, but his presence will present huge issues for the former Rutgers back moving forward. Pacheco's massive volume in 2023 allowed him to thrive and finish as the RB15 overall despite playing in only 14 games.
Though that's part of the problem. Pacheco's running style, which involves charging as hard as he can into defenders and bashing his head into them at full force like a medieval battering ram, doesn't help, and neither does the fact that he picked up injuries that caused him to miss games by fighting defenders, like his shoulder injury in 2023.
Chiefs ruled out RB Isiah Pacheco for Sunday’s game vs. the Bills due to a shoulder injury.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 8, 2023
It's possible the Chiefs could keep Hunt for another year and draft another RB to develop in either the 2025 or 2026 drafts. They seemed perfectly happy with their committee system from last season, and drifting away from it would expose Pacheco to more punishment.
It's easy to understand why they'd want to avoid this. It also helps them manage the cap more effectively moving forward, as paying a highly productive RB a big salary hasn't been useful recently unless they're an elite player.
Pacheco seems unlikely to be the dominant fantasy back he was for stretches of 2023 again anytime soon.
Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Darnold signed a three-year deal with the Seahawks after the Minnesota Vikings let him walk in free agency. The Vikings have one of the best possible situations for a quarterback in the NFL, which allowed Darnold to resurrect his career and thrive in 2024.
Their elite offensive line, elite pass-catching weapons, and elite offensive system engineered by head coach Kevin O'Connell helped carry Darnold to the best season of his career by far. Despite his final two games being dumpster fires, Darnold earned a nice payday.
The Seahawks offensive line:
- Bradford leads all guards in sacks (6) and penalties (9).
- Forsythe missed 2 weeks and STILL leads the NFL in pressures allowed (35).
- Run game averaging 2.5 YPC since week 6.
- 7 sacks allowed
Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards. pic.twitter.com/PNY12A1moG
— Seahawks Today (@TodaySeahawks) November 4, 2024
Former Seattle quarterback Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and with the Seahawks, he looked like one of the NFL's best quarterbacks when you accounted for how bad the offensive line is.
Signing Darnold is a puzzling move unless you consider that it was probably desperation because he proved that he couldn't handle NFL pressure in his final two games of the season. It was atrocious. For reference, Smith was constantly escaping from pressure and bailing out his OL group with his mobility and intelligence in 2024.
“HE’S HOLDING IT TOO LONG! THROW IT MAN!” -Paul Allen
Sam Darnold is sacked for the 5th time in 2 quarters
Called by Paul Allen and Pete Bercich for KFXN in Minneapolis: pic.twitter.com/YxtjXFcQ7e
— will: Riley Greene Truther (@wrhiv_72) January 14, 2025
Darnold, meanwhile, was incredibly uncomfortable under duress, and simply held onto the ball like a deer in headlights, frozen while the pass rush enveloped him. He completed just 16 of his 41 passes for 166 yards against the Detroit Lions in Week 18 and took nine sacks against the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. And just like that, Minnesota knew it couldn't retain him.
He's a match made in hell for a poor offensive line. The Darnold we knew with the Jets and Panthers was the Darnold we will likely see -- it's just what he looks like when the pass protection isn't very good. As I stated above, I'm a big believer in Klint Kubiak, the Seahawks offensive coordinator, but he'll have his work cut out for him.
DK Metcalf and George Pickens, WRs, Pittsburgh Steelers
I already broke down, in depth, the situation with these two here. There's not much more to write until Pittsburgh figures out its quarterback situation.
Honorable Mentions: Christian Kirk, Miles Sanders
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