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Dave Ventresca dives into the 2024 fantasy football outlook for the New England Patriots' running game and what fantasy managers can expect from this unit in 2024.
The New England Patriots will have a different look when the 2024 season begins. Longtime coach Bill Belichick is gone, and first-time head coach Jerod Mayo takes over. The team also has a new signal-caller after selecting Drake Maye with the third overall pick in April’s draft.
Several key areas of the team will look different while the backfield remains mostly intact. Rhamondre Stevenson once again enters the season as the team’s lead rusher. However, Ezekiel Elliott departed in free agency and the team brought in former Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson.
What does all this mean for fantasy football purposes? Let’s take a look and analyze what fantasy gamers can expect from this backfield in 2024.
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2023 Season Review
Much like their offensive attack as a whole, the Patriots' running game was not particularly effective last year. They ranked 21st in offensive rush DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. New England’s rushing attack ranked 26th in rush yards per game and 25th in yards per carry. The offensive line did its best to help the offense. The Patriots finished 2023 as Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) 12th- highest-graded rushing offensive line.
Part of New England’s struggles can be placed on starting back Rhamondre Stevenson. While he enjoyed a career season in 2022, Stevenson struggled in 2023. One year removed from finishing ninth in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), Stevenson finished only 31st in RYOE last year. Among rushers with at least 50 attempts, Stevenson only ranked 41st in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). This was down from a seventh-place finish in 2022. His yards per carry also decreased from 5.0 in 2022 to 4.0 in 2023.
Stevenson’s backfield mate, Ezekiel Elliott, was not particularly effective, either. Elliott continued his downward trajectory last year and had career lows in rushing yards, yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns. He also ranked 41st in RYOE. This backfield was flat-out bad in 2023.
So while New England’s offensive line did its part, Stevenson and Elliott’s struggles hurt the rushing attack as a whole. It’s not entirely fair to place all the blame on both backs, but it does make you wonder if this unit would have fared better with a more effective rusher.
Offseason Changes
Elliott reunited with the Dallas Cowboys in free agency while Stevenson will remain with New England. However, the Patriots did sign former Washington Commanders back Antonio Gibson to a three-year, $11.25 million contract this offseason.
Touchdown Antonio Gibson! That's his 10th on the year and it is 27-16 #WashingtonFootball up on the Cowboys in Dallas. 12:07 left in this one. #WASvsDAL pic.twitter.com/i0xSK7ZDMN
— 106.7 The Fan (@1067theFan) November 27, 2020
While he flamed out in Washington, some of Gibson’s advanced metrics show he can still be an effective back. Among rushers with at least 50 attempts, Gibson finished first in MTF/ATT and ranked 15th in PFF’s signature Elusive Rating. New England also added some pieces to its offensive line. It selected tackle Caedan Wallace and guard Layden Robinson in the third and fourth rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Jerod Mayo takes over as head coach after Bill Belichick’s departure. Mayo hired former Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt to the same position in New England. While he held the title of offensive coordinator in Cleveland, head coach Kevin Stefanski was largely in control and called plays. The last time Van Pelt called plays was in 2009 when he was offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills. Van Pelt’s offense that year ran the ball 49% of the time, finished 30th in total passing yards, and finished 12th in total rushing yards. His offensive attack didn’t show much interest in the passing game.
In fairness to Van Pelt, he was working with Trent Edwards and a less seasoned version of Ryan Fitzpatrick as starting quarterbacks. However, it was clear Van Pelt had a preference to run the ball. There’s little reason to expect things will be any different in 2024 with New England.
2024 Final Fantasy Football Expectations
It’s tough to say exactly what this offense will look like in 2024. It has a rookie quarterback, an offensive coordinator who hasn’t called plays in 15 years, and no elite options at wide receiver. It’s safe to assume this offense will be centered around its ground game. Expect New England to run a relatively conservative offense that will be run-centric as it eases Maye’s transition into the NFL. It needs Stevenson to return to his 2022 form to improve the rushing offense.
Rhamondre Stevenson 64-yard touchdown!
(Via: NFL, FOX)pic.twitter.com/5LghEQHrz5
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 5, 2023
For fantasy football purposes, Stevenson is primed to be the lead rusher in this attack. However, there may be more risk in his profile this year with the addition of Gibson. The club might see something in him. He should have a role on offense behind Stevenson. Gibson graded higher than Stevenson in MTF/ATT and Elusive Rating. Should Stevenson struggle again, the new staff may expand Gibson’s role, making him the preferred option for fantasy players.
Managers should take all of this into account when considering drafting either back. If you want Stevenson on your roster, it would be wise to select Gibson with one of your final picks to hedge your bet.
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