RADIO
I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from mid-June to mid-July using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three quarterback fallers.
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Quarterbacks - Fantasy Football ADP Fallers
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Before we get to Tannehill himself, it's worth covering some of the news that have made the rounds through the past month to understand the large-view situation in Tennessee. First, the reports talked about rookie (first-round, 18th-overall pick) Treylon Burks dropping passes, having conditioning issues, and also fighting asthma problems by the middle of June.
Chigoziem Okonkwo was considered a rising option at the TE position back then – even with the likes of Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim on the roster. Something similar happened with RB Drontrell Hilliard, seemingly jumping Hassan Haskins as the RB2. And then there was Tannehill calling out his tight-end corps and praising Okonkwo probably to foster a reaction from the veterans. Quite a mess.
Most recently, Burks has kept missing practice time and the consensus opinion out there is that he has had one of the worst offseasons of any rookie because of his conditioning issues and the drops. Even then, he's still expected to be the Titans' WR2 (!) because, well, all the Titans have at the position is the remnants of Robert Woods and then a weirdo-combination of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Dez Fitzpatrick, and rookie Kyle Philips.
To sum up, fantasy GMs are hella scared of this team's outlook at the QB-WR/TE positions. Beyond that, RB Derrick Henry will command loads of touches. Nothing wrong with Tannehill, who has beaten expectations in each and every season of his pro career in terms of ADP/Rk and played to QB1 levels the last two years, but the environment and his weapons are truly horrid.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
The ADP drop is barely visible at less than four picks overall and has actually bounced back a bit of late, but it is what it is. Nothing very fanciful to report regarding Miami and its players/roster in the past month, though.
Tyreek Hill's agent said that the wide receiver "felt underutilized with the Kansas City Chiefs"... who got a monster 159 targets last season to hit a career-high in KC. LOL. If I know anything, it's that Tua is not the strongest passer out there, so we'll see how this partnership turns out with Hill excelling on deep routes and targets down the field.
More important, although probably a bit silly right now, are the whispers out there (sourced to The Miami Herald) talking about former Saints head coach Sean Payton's interest in the coaching positions of Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles Chargers.
Obviously, none of those are open right now and it feels a bit crazy to think Miami is going to move on from Mike McDaniel in the middle of the 2022 season after bringing him this very year. That might be affecting Tua's stock a bit, though it shouldn't really be the case. Right now, Tua is the QB16 off the board, projecting exactly to that final position among quarterbacks in the latest run of PFF projections.
He comes with a high rushing floor of 60+ carries, 200+ yards, and 3+ TDs, so he can build on that to rise up the QB fantasy leaderboards. The price feels right and he is projected to have more FP than quarterbacks getting drafted earlier than him these days (Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr).
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