Fantasy Deep Dive Week 3: Nikola Mirotic

RotoBaller's Justin Carter looks at film from New Orleans Pelicans power forward Nikola Mirotic to look at why he is a fantasy basketball riser early in the 2018-2019 NBA season.

The New Orleans Pelicans have built their team around a dynamic three-headed frontcourt this season. There's Anthony Davis, one of the NBA's best players and a perennial MVP candidate from now until sometime late in the next decade, and there's former Laker Julius Randle coming off the bench and giving the team good minutes. But the third player isn't someone who entered the league as heralded as the others.

Nikola Mirotic was the 23rd overall pick in the 2011 NBA Draft by the Houston Rockets, an international stash pick that Houston traded later that night to Minnesota, who then turned around and traded his rights to the Bulls. He came over in 2014 and was a good player for the Bulls, but he's really found his stride since coming to New Orleans.

Let's take a deep dive on Mirotic and see what his recent play suggests about his fantasy value moving forward.

Nikola Mirotic: Deep Dive

Some Background Information

The best thing that ever happened to Nikola Mirotic's NBA career was that teammate Bobby Portis punched him in the face last year, and that the Chicago Bulls decided to keep the guy who did the punching. The trade that sent Mirotic to New Orleans did wonders for keeping the Pelicans in the playoff hunt last year, and it did wonders to Mirotic's impact in the league.

So far this season, Mirotic is averaging 22.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, both career bests. He's posted three consecutive double-doubles and opened this season with a pair of 30-point games, and all of this comes despite decreases in his three-point and free throw percentages. Mirotic is taking 17 shots per game, around five more than he has in any other season of his career.

Per BBall Index, Mirotic's points per possession rank in the 80th percentile or higher in the following categories: pick and roll ball handler, spot up, and cut. He scores in the 73rd percentile on hand offs, and the 96th percentile on plays categorized as "miscellaneous." Mirotic is capable of getting the ball into the bucket in a variety of ways.

So far this year, he ranks seventh in the NBA in offensive-PIPM, though a -1.3 on the defensive side actually puts him near the bottom on that end (his individual defensive rating is 114 so far, the worst of his career). Overall, those defensive struggles don't put him near the leaders in overall PIPM, but hey -- if we're focusing on his fantasy impact here, those offensive numbers give us reason to cheer despite the issues on defense.

Game Tape

Let's look at some recent clips of Mirotic. What's he doing? How is he doing it? And, maybe more importantly, is it sustainable?

Here is Nikola Mirotic hitting a three:

Here is Nikola Mirotic hitting another three:

Lot of similarities in these two videos. Watching a lot of tape from Mirotic's last few games, it looks like he really likes taking that three from that left wing. That jives with what his heat map from last year looked like:

That definitely seems to be the area that Mirotic is most comfortable shooting from, and the Pelicans have come up with a variety of ways to get him that shot. In the first clip above, there's a pretty simple little pick and pop. Mirotic sets a pick at the top of the key, E'Twaun Moore comes around him and receives the pass, and then Mirotic does a little sidestep, gets the ball, and fires in the three.

The second clip also ends with a Mirotic three from essentially the same spot. Anthony Davis has the ball up top, and Mirotic runs past and heads towards the paint. He's matched up with Klay Thompson here, and while Klay is a pretty good defender he's also at a size disadvantage. But hey -- Klay does a pretty good job of making sure Mirotic isn't going to just roll to the basket and make an easy play! It's too bad for the Warriors that Mirotic is a threat inside and outside -- the whole left side of the court has been cleared out, so Mirotic is able to easily maneuver to that favorite spot of his. Lifts, fires, three points. Through eight games, Mirotic is connecting on 40.5 percent of his catch and shoot threes. What's more, he's actually shooting better from three the closer a defender is to him. While the volume of shots defined as wide open and tight are too low for us to make too much of this, it is a good sign that Mirotic is able to get these shots off quick enough to negate some of the impact of his closest defender.

Mirotic is also shooting 68.1 percent in the restricted area and 63.6 percent in the non-RA paint. Here's a good example of his ability to get to the basket. Mirotic backs down Jake Layman here, and is able to use some good moves to get to the basket. I think we forget -- largely because of Anthony Davis -- that Mirotic is an effective inside player. Last year, he shot seven percentage points better than league average in the paint. He's not great as a back to the basket, post-up guy -- he actually graded out as an F last year per BBall Index as a post up player, but he's effective inside because of his finishing ability and his rebounding. He's averaging three offensive boards per game right now; keep that up, and he'll get plenty of chances at the basket on put backs.

The Fantasy Impact

So, how predictive is all of this? There's a bunch of numbers and some videos, but what does it mean if you're a fantasy owner of Nikola Mirotic, or a DFS player looking to insert him into your lineups?

Well, it's a little complicated, but ultimately there are a lot of good signs for Mirotic.

Mirotic has actually played a lot better with Anthony Davis on the floor than off the floor. Per NBA.com, here's Mirotic's numbers with Davis on and with Davis off:

This makes sense in a lot of ways, because Davis creates the kind of gravity that allows other players to succeed. But it also ties Mirotic's value closely to Davis' value, which is tricky when determining Mirotic's value comes into play. I think you'd normally assume that if the team's best player misses time, a guy like Mirotic would step up. And while Mirotic does see a higher usage rate when Davis sits, it's actually Julius Randle who sees the bigger increase in his numbers when Davis is off versus when Davis is on.

But still, we already basically know that Mirotic has a ceiling, because all NBA players have a ceiling. Even if he's best as a complimentary piece on a team, he's still an incredibly good complimentary piece who'll give you production in points, rebounds, and threes. He gives you almost a steal per game. But there are definitely reasons to worry about that career-high field goal percentage, especially because of how it sinks with Davis off the court. That could be a trend to keep an eye on, and possibly something that can be exploited when you're looking at the trade market.

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