RADIO
Hey y'all! We've reached the All-Star break, which means we don't have any basketball games again until next Thursday, unless you count the All-Star Game itself, which is technically basketball and technically will happen this week. Will this new format help the game? Probably not! We'll still see a final score somewhere in the 180-190 range.
Let's do this week's column a little differently. With no games for the next week, there's less of a sense of urgency pressing against us. There's more time for us to speculate and look at the big picture, to examine how players fit within the confines of their teams as their teams move toward either playoff contention or join the race to the bottom.
Next week, I'll take a look at risers and fallers on contending teams, but right now I want to look at the teams that generally regarded as part of the tanking crew this year. It stands to reason that young, promising players will see an increase in their minutes and good, older players will see their time on the court slip, will end up garnering some DNP-Rest designations along the way. Let's take a look at some potential risers and fallers heading into the All-Star break of the NBA season from the following set of teams: Phoenix, Atlanta, Dallas, Orlando, Sacramento, Memphis, and Chicago. (Sorry, Nets fans--you're bad, but you don't have a first round pick so you are not incentivized to tank).
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The Non-Contending Teams
Phoenix Suns
Riser: I know I included Elfrid Payton on last week's list, but the newly-acquired point guard is going to figure into Phoenix's end of season plans as the team tries to figure out if he can be a crucial long term piece for them. Payton's full season averages are 13.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. His three game average as a Sun (and yes, I know: SAMPLE SIZE): 20.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game. Those numbers are bound to cool a little, but Payton's going to be a much better fantasy option than he was in Orlando.
Faller: Devin Booker is going to be a very good NBA player and is a key building block for the Suns, but he's been a little banged up this year. I'd be really worried if I owned shares of Booker, because it's become pretty clear that the Suns are going to be careful with him down the stretch. He's still going to be a strong DFS play, but in season-long formats it'll be a good idea to monitor RotoBaller's NBA News Desk constantly for updates about his availability.
Atlanta Hawks
Riser: The Hawks drafted Oregon shooting guard Tyler Dorsey in the second round and he moved into the starting lineup for the first time against the Pistons. He'll likely return to the bench after the All-Star break, but he's seen a big rise in his minutes and could be leaned on a little more as a scorer down the stretch. He needs to get his three point shot going down at a more consistent rate. He's also a decent rebounder for his position.
Faller: I just can't imagine Ersan Ilyasova still getting big minutes and shooting the ball as much as he has as the season wears on. Maybe he's just bad enough to help the tank by doing that, but the Hawks roster is constructed in such a way that someone worse and younger can do the same thing. Illyasova's minutes have been a little less consistent lately and now he's dealing with a shoulder issue.
Dallas Mavericks
Riser: Dwight Powell has been very good lately for Dallas, serving as the main back-up in the front court. He's scoring nearly twenty points per game and rebounding well over the past week or so, and that should continue as the season wears on.
Faller: I don't think the Mavericks are going to bench Dirk Nowitzki even as they try to tank. Instead, I'd be wary of the 33-year-old J.J. Barea down the stretch. Dallas has a crowded back court rotation and Barea isn't really part of their future plans.
Orlando Magic
Riser: Mario Hezonja is finally fulfilling some of that promise. He's started six consecutive games, played 30 or more minutes in four of them, and scored 20 or more points in the three games before the break. Expect him to continue being a big part of Orlando's game plan.
Faller: Aaron Gordon for literally every reason used for Devin Booker above but with the additional caveat that Gordon has been even more injured this season and the Magic should be even more careful with him.
Sacramento Kings
Riser: Bogdan Bogdanovic might be the most important player on the Kings right now. The rookie is shooting well, passing well, and playing a ton of minutes.
Faller: I'm not quite sure what the Kings will do going forward, but two veterans that I'm worried about: Zach Randolph and Vince Carter. Randolph has arguably been the best player in Sacramento this season, but he's not part of their future. I'd expect to see his playing time decrease as the season winds down.
Memphis Grizzlies
Riser: If you've read this column before, you might know that I'm a huge fan of Dillon Brooks, the Grizzlies rookie who is playing big minutes and becoming more and more consistent as a shooter as the season wears on. In addition, he gives you decent production in assists and rebounds. I really like him moving forward.
Faller: Logic should dictate that Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans play less down the stretch since they are good basketball players, but Memphis needs to keep Gasol happy and prove to Evans that he needs to re-sign. Maybe the easy way out is this: Chandler Parsons is back but it would be wild to think that he's going to be a key part of the future in Memphis. I'm actually surprised the Grizzlies are even giving him minutes. Don't fall for it.
Chicago Bulls
Riser: Kris Dunn is back! After a scary fall that kept him out for a while, the second-year guard is back in Chicago's lineup. Dunn was good at stuffing the stat sheet before the injury and should go back to doing the same thing after the All-Star break. He's a great player to have for depth in your fantasy leagues.
Faller: Don't hold me to this one. Robin Lopez best fits the bill as someone to lose playing time, but the Bulls don't really have much depth at the center position. Maybe Cristiano Felicio or Noah Vonleh start to take his minutes? (Granted, Lopez isn't a great fantasy option anyways, so you might as why unload him for someone with more upside, right?)
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