8 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Nick Kurtz, Jacob Lopez, Paul Goldschmidt, Jameson Taillon, more

June 30, 2025

Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 14 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.

Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 14 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll look at players like Nick Kurtz, Jacob Lopez, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jameson Taillon.

Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will select a few players who have performed well recently and a few who have not, and I will analyze their performances to determine how their future outcomes may be affected.

Taking flyers on players carries lower stakes at the beginning of the season. However, fantasy managers may face tough decisions to fully buy into or pass on players as the season progresses. Hopefully, the Fantasy Risers and Fallers article series will help as fantasy trade deadlines approach!

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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 29, 2025.

Nick Kurtz, Athletics (1B)

.256/.318/.525 Slash Line, 12 HRs, 31 RBI

Nick Kurtz came into the season as one of fantasy's exciting top prospects. He got called up at the end of April and has shown the power skills that fantasy managers were hoping for. He is also hitting in a surprisingly strong lineup. Can he maintain his fantasy production for a full season?

Kurtz is still learning to hit in the big leagues, but he has shown solid signs of adapting to the challenge. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity and 48.6% hard-hit rate are among the high marks of baseball, and his 77.6 mph bat speed is in elite territory. He only has 179 big-league plate appearances so far, but his batted-ball profile in that time has been excellent.

Nick Kurtz hits his 7th home run in his last 15 games 😳 pic.twitter.com/bA1NViqW7O

— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2025

The only growing pain for Kurtz is his strikeout rate. His 26.8% rate at Triple-A Las Vegas was manageable, although not great. His current 32.4% rate with the A's is not sustainable. His 14.4% swinging-strike rate isn't great, but the silver lining is that he hasn't chased pitches much.

It is hard to expect prospect hitters to instantly feel comfortable in the big leagues, and while Kurtz hasn't been perfect, he has shown a lot of promise. His high-end power may not be enough if he can't corral his strikeouts, but the 22-year-old has plenty of time to figure things out.

Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers (OF)

.288/.326/.497 Slash Line, 16 HRs, 55 RBI, 6 SBs

Andy Pages is one of the many exciting fantasy players on the Dodgers. While he isn't one of their well-known stars, he may be on his way to becoming one. He is wrapping up his best month of the season and could be on his way to putting a bow on a first half that would warrant him being a fantasy All-Star.

Pages hasn't hit the ball all that hard, but he has maximized damage when he makes contact. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 38th and 29th percentiles of baseball, respectively. Despite this, his 66th percentile bat speed and his 85th percentile sweet-spot rate have boosted his batting average and slugging percentage.

Pages also has other things going for him that should keep him in the lineup. His fielding metrics are all among the best in baseball, and while he has never stolen a ton of bases, his sprint speed is in the 78th percentile of baseball. He has received plenty of playing time lately, tying Shohei Ohtani for the team's most at-bats in the last 30 days.

Pages may fly under the fantasy radar because he isn't one of the big names on the Dodgers, but he has put together a complete first half of the season. He doesn't impact the ball that hard, but he has gotten the most out of his swing. He is already rostered in 84% of leagues, but there doesn't seem to be any reason he shouldn't be universally rostered.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 29, 2025.

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

2-4, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 28.9% Strikeout Rate, 43 IP

Jacob Lopez has primarily served as a starter for the Athletics this season, yielding some intriguing results. He has tossed three consecutive quality starts and owns a 28.9% strikeout rate in 43 innings pitched this season. He is currently rostered in just 24% of leagues; should that be higher?

Lopez had a history of high strikeout potential but struggled with walks at times, which caused his ERAs to fluctuate. That history has reflected in his stats this season, with a strong strikeout rate and a 12.5% swinging-strike rate, but a modest 8.9% walk rate. His slider and changeup have been his strikeout weapons.

Jacob Lopez, Filthy 80mph Slider. 😷 pic.twitter.com/xOVsmTH2wX

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 26, 2025

Lopez has found success with an extreme approach. He has induced a 25.2-degree launch angle and has a ground-ball rate in the first percentile of baseball. He has made this work by limiting hard contact, with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 84th and 87th percentiles of baseball.

Lopez's approach presents a slippery slope. When it all clicks, he induces weak contact in the air with plenty of strikeouts. When it doesn't, he puts runners on for free and allows them to score on home runs. He may not be for the faint of heart, but Lopez has shown more than enough upside to take a flyer on.

Brandon Walter, Houston Astros

1-1, 3.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 24.6% Strikeout Rate, 29 2/3 IP

Brandon Walter was not a fantasy prospect, but the 28-year-old has stepped up for the Astros after they dealt with rotation injuries. With a 3.34 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 24.6% strikeout rate in his five starts, should he be getting more attention?

Walter doesn’t have an overpowering pitch arsenal, but he does have a deep one that he has used well. He has thrown all five of his pitches over 10% of the time, and he has done a good job keeping the ball down in the zone. This has resulted in weak contact with a ground-ball rate in the 85th percentile among qualified pitchers.

He also seems to have experienced some bad luck despite his strong peripherals. Even with his high GB% rate, Walter has allowed at least one HR in all but one of his starts. They haven’t proven that damaging given his low WHIP, but one wouldn’t expect that many HR with his batted-ball profile.

Walter has made only five starts, but he has demonstrated the ability to limit hard contact and keep the ball on the ground. He has also struck out at least five hitters in all of his starts. He may not have as much of a ceiling as Lopez, but he appears to have a higher floor.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 29, 2025.

Paul Goldschmidt, New York Yankees (1B)

.285/.345/.426 Slash Line, 8 HRs, 32 RBI, 5 SBs

Paul Goldschmidt has put together solid numbers for a 37-year-old, seemingly continuing to elude Father Time. A closer look under the hood shows that he had a great start to the season, but is hitting just .148 in June. Could Goldschmidt be a potential sell-high candidate?

Batted-ball profile has not been an issue for Goldschmidt in June. His 89.4 mph average exit velocity is in line with his 89.8 mph season mark, and his 46.7% hard-hit rate is actually higher than his season mark of 41.3%. His 24.7% strikeout rate is higher than his 17.8% season mark, but it is still fine.

It seems to come down to ebbs and flows of a season. Goldschmidt has a .330 BABIP on the season, which is similar to his .348 career mark but is higher than league-average. He had a ridiculous .435 BABIP in March and April, a .321 BABIP in May, and now a .175 BABIP in June, despite maintaining a decent batted-ball profile.

Paul Goldschmidt says he has not played well for "the last few weeks, maybe even this whole month"

He adds: "It's hurting our team, the way I've played" pic.twitter.com/DcSN1LmSG6

— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) June 28, 2025

There haven't been any particular flaws in Goldschmidt's game, but age is always a lurking factor. He has shown the ability to still be a fantasy contributor and hit in one of baseball's better lineups. Fantasy managers should be pleased with what they've gotten from him, but it wouldn't hurt to try to shop him just in case.

Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves (OF)

.212/.238/.320 Slash Line, 6 HRs, 43 RBI, 11 SBs

Fantasy managers know what a fantasy contributor Michael Harris II can be when healthy, given his strong 2022 and 2023 seasons. Things have not been anywhere close to that in 2025, with a poor .212/.238/.320 slash line in 326 plate appearances. What has gone wrong for the 24-year-old, and can he turn things around?

Michael Harris II OPS+ by season:
2022: 133 | 2023: 126 | 2024: 98 | 2025: 56

Digging into why one of baseball’s most promising young stars has fallen flat 👇 pic.twitter.com/tWKqHtptDO

— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) June 27, 2025

Harris's bat speed has been above-average as it always has, but he has not hit the ball as hard. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both career lows and are both below league average. This has resulted in a career low .249 BABIP, which is much lower than his career mark of .315.

He has also made some poor choices at the plate. He has never walked much, but his 3.1% walk rate is a career low. This has coincided with an increase in chases, with his 42.3% chase rate in the second percentile of baseball.

Harris is just 24 years old, so it is conceivable that he is having a tough time figuring things out at the plate. This is frustrating for fantasy managers, as he has shown that he can be an impact player. His fantasy value is so low now that selling at a low price may not yield a significant return.

Fantasy managers in dire straits may have to move on, but those who can afford to may want to hold out and hope he can get things right.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 29, 2025.

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

7-5, 4.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 19.1% Strikeout Rate, 90 2/3 IP

Jameson Taillon was once a fantasy prospect, and while he hasn't quite lived up to expectations, he has provided plenty of fantasy value throughout his career. His season peripherals have been solid this season, but he has allowed 13 earned runs over his last two starts. What should fantasy managers expect from him for the rest of the season?

Taillon hasn't allowed a ton of hard contact this season, but he has allowed a lot of contact, and that contact has been in the air with a 20.3-degree launch angle. This has led to a lot of HRs, with a career-high 16.8% HR/FB rate and a 2.08 HR/9 rate. He isn't an overpowering pitcher and has allowed a lot of barrels, so he has a slim margin of error even with only allowing league-average hard contact.

All of the potential negatives hurt Taillon in his last two starts. He allowed five HRs with his worst hard-hit values of the season and poor barrel rates. Taillon did not point to anything specific when asked about his recent outings, but this appears to be an extreme example of the negative outcomes he could face.

“I’m aware that the last two haven’t been very good, and it needs to be better.”

Jameson Taillon has allowed 13 ER over his last two starts. pic.twitter.com/OGuexYEJQs

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) June 25, 2025

I think it is fair to say that Taillon will finish the season with overall better results than his last two starts. However, I would not be surprised to see things shift more towards these results than some of his better results, given his pitching approach.

His next start will be against the Cardinals, whom he just allowed eight runs to. I'm not sure if fantasy managers would be interested in trading for Taillon, so the most conservative option for those who roster him seems to be to sit him in his next start and hope he can turn things around a bit.

Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers

4-5, 4.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 20.8% Strikeout Rate, 82 2/3 IP

Dustin May has carried high fantasy hopes throughout his career. For years, he has shown the skills to be fantasy-relevant but not the ability to stay healthy. He has made the most starts of his big-league career this season, but unfortunately, has not produced what fantasy managers were expecting. Can May get back to the glimpses we have seen of him before?

While May is healthy, having been able to pitch, his stuff is not where it was when he last pitched in 2023. Specifically, his fastballs are all down between one to two mph from 2023 to 2025. His sinker has been his main fastball, and he has allowed a poor .294 batting average against and a .563 slugging percentage against.

Further, while his pitches themselves look impressive, they don't seem to generate the swinging strikes that one would expect. May relies primarily on his sweeper and sinker, and both pitches have swinging-strike rates below 11%. It may help hitters that May has had issues throwing strikes. His 9.7% walk rate and low 24.8% chase rate suggest that hitters are clearly tracking his pitches.

Dustin May, 95mph Two Seamer and 87mph Wipeout Sweeper, Overlay pic.twitter.com/BK63MVevFQ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 3, 2025

May presents a tough situation for fantasy managers. His stuff has shown to be exciting at times, but he has battled injuries and has to contend with a host of strong pitchers on the Dodgers. With the trade deadline approaching, May could potentially find more competition surrounding him, which could further limit his fantasy value.

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