X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Later-Round Category Targets - ERA

sixto sanchez fantasy baseball rankings MLB prospects

Jon Anderson's potentially undervalued fantasy baseball starting pitchers to target in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts. These SPs can be ERA sleepers on draft day.

Starting pitching is a finicky thing in the fantasy world. There is certain to be lots of impactful injuries, breakouts, and busts this year within the starting pitching position.

After the first handful of rounds of the draft, it gets pretty tough to find guys you can feel confident about helping your team in the ERA category. But if you can find a few guys late in the draft that post great ERA's this year, you're well on your way to success.

Here we will explore the ERA category a bit and then nominate a few pitchers that may prove to be great targets in the middle or later rounds to help your team in that category. You can also read other articles in this series for my breakdowns of other later-round category targets.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Where Does ERA Come From?

I went through pitchers that have thrown 100+ innings pitched in a season from 2014-2019 and examined correlations with different statistical categories and ERA. The goal here is to find certain "skills" that most correlate to ERA, and then use that information to identify which later-round pitchers have these skills. There were really two categories that stuck out. Here they are.

 

K-BB%

Earned runs come from baserunners. Baserunners come from hits and walks. Hits come from putting the ball in play. Ipso facto, pitchers that avoid walking hitters and allowing balls to be put in play will post better ERAs. This is incredibly intuitive and probably doesn't even need proven, but here's a plot anyways.

What you see here is the relationship between K-BB% and ERA. You can see that as your K-BB% gets lower, your ERA gets higher.

K-BB% is just what it says, a pitcher's strikeout rate minus their walk rate. The gold standard is Gerrit Cole's 2019 season where he posted a 39.9% strikeout rate with a 5.9% walk rate. Doing the subtraction gives you a 34% K-BB%. He is represented by the highest dot on the plot above, and you can see that his ERA on the x-axis shows up at 2.50.

On the other side of things, the worst we have seen is actually Tyler Chatwood's 2019 season when he posted a 17.5% strikeout rate with a 19.5% walk rate, resulting in a negative K-BB% of -2.1%. I actually left that dot off the plot cause negative values on the y-axis make it look really dumb, but you can see how this works now.

When we look at the leaders in this category over the last two years, it's just a bunch of studs that you have to pay a high draft cost for. Here are the top ten using 2019 and 2020 data together.

Pitcher K% BB% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole 38% 6% 32%
Justin Verlander 35% 5% 30%
Chris Sale 36% 6% 30%
Max Scherzer 34% 6% 28%
Jacob deGrom 34% 6% 28%
Shane Bieber 33% 5% 28%
Dinelson Lamet 34% 9% 25%
Yu Darvish 31% 7% 24%
Lucas Giolito 33% 9% 24%
Mike Clevinger 32% 8% 24%

Not very helpful for our purposes.

Looking at pitchers that show up high on this leaderboard with more affordable ADP's, here are some names:

Pitcher ADP K-BB%
Stephen Strasburg 71 22.7%
Charlie Morton 119 22.4%
Carlos Carrasco 66 21.7%
Kevin Gausman 132 20.8%
Chris Paddack 109 20.7%
Andrew Heaney 203 20.2%
Zack Greinke 108 19.9%
Domingo German 301 19.9%
Jake Odorizzi 282 18.7%
Frankie Montas 151 18.5%
Michael Pineda 227 18.3%
Joe Musgrove 130 17.8%
Tyler Mahle 170 17.7%
Ryan Yarbrough 246 16.2%
Griffin Canning 289 15.9%
Mike Minor 288 15.8%

 

HR/9

Keeping the ball in the yard is also quite helpful to your ERA, which is again - very obvious. Here's the relationship

What's the best way to limit homers? Probably the best way is to limit contact, which we've already discussed. But there are several pitchers who do a great job preventing homers while not striking out a ton of guys. Those pitchers typically do it by getting a ton of ground-balls. I sorted my data by ground-ball rate, limiting the results to pitchers that are being drafted in the top 400. Here's what that looks like:

Pitcher ADP GB%
Framber Valdez 91 61%
Lance McCullers Jr. 117 60%
Sixto Sanchez 133 58%
Dallas Keuchel 195 58%
Luis Castillo 25 57%
Carlos Martinez 394 56%
Max Fried 64 54%
Ian Anderson 96 54%
Marcus Stroman 213 54%
Brady Singer 232 54%
Mike Soroka 171 54%
Hyun-Jin Ryu 74 52%
Sonny Gray 65 52%
Justus Sheffield 275 52%
Dustin May 168 51%
Stephen Strasburg 71 51%
Brad Keller 300 51%
Jameson Taillon 222 51%
Aaron Nola 22 51%
German Marquez 166 50%
Pablo Lopez 121 50%

These are some of the best ground-ball pitchers in the game, which does help their ERA projections. However, you still want some strikeouts to be present to feel good about getting a helpful ERA. In the cases of Keuchel, Stroman, Singer, Sheffield, May, and Keller - you are not going to get strikeouts. Those are strict pitch-to-contact guys who are susceptible to bloated ERA's influenced heavily by bad luck. Letting a ball be put in play opens you up to the hitter reaching base.

The names on this list that can achieve high strikeout rates: Valdez, McCullers, Sanchez, Castillo, Martinez, Anderson, Gray, Strasburg, Nola, Lopez. I think if those names can stay healthy, they have a really good shot at crushing their draft prices.

 

Weak Fly Balls

A weakly hit fly ball is even better than a ground-ball, as those batted ball types go for an out at a very high rate. Here's the slugging percentages hitters achieve on average at each exit velocity:

The goal, then, is to keep the fly-balls you do give up under 95 miles per hour, as that is really where the slugging percentage starts to bottom out.

We can then look into which pitchers have been able to limit the exit velocity on the fly balls they have given up, and this could potentially point out some pitchers that could exceed expectations in ERA. The problem with this is, it's not as predictive a stat as ground-ball rate is. Ground-ball rate is very steady year-to-year, while exit velocity measures have not proven to be.

Here's the average exit velocity on fly balls leaderboard from the last two seasons:

Pitcher ADP FB Velo
Spencer Howard 362 85.1
Lance McCullers Jr. 117 85.2
Sixto Sanchez 113 86.1
Kwang Hyun Kim 262 86.5
Michael Lorenzen 380 87.9
Aaron Civale 183 88.2
Mitch Keller 293 88.4
Hyun-Jin Ryu 74 88.6
Julio Urias 114 88.6
Ian Anderson 96 88.9
Deivi Garcia 306 88.9
Zack Wheeler 90 89.1
Charlie Morton 119 89.2
Ryan Yarbrough 246 89.3
Kyle Hendricks 85 89.5

 

Conclusion

So there are three categories to look for when you're trying to find a late-round pitcher to help you in ERA. To sum it all up and give you some actionable advice, here are my top 13 pitchers for ERA help in the middle or late in the draft this year.

Pitcher ADP
Stephen Strasburg 71
Julio Urias 114
Lance McCullers Jr. 117
Charlie Morton 119
Pablo Lopez 121
Sixto Sanchez 133
Aaron Civale 183
Dallas Keuchel 195
Andrew Heaney 203
Michael Pineda 227
Ryan Yarbrough 246
Mike Minor 288
Griffin Canning 289



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
NBA

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Philadelphia 76ers

Kyle Lowry Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Jock Landale

Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Calvin Austin III

Private: Calvin Austin III Making Case for No. 2 Role
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF