ESPN H2H Points League Primer - Strategy, Bargains and Busts for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

March 24, 2023

Nicklaus Gaut looks at ESPN fantasy baseball points leagues sleepers, busts and draft strategy. He breaks down how to win your ESPN H2H point leagues in 2023.

Oh. My. Goodness. After railing and railing about ESPN H2H point leagues over the past few years, the worldwide leader has finally brought change! Perhaps realizing that far more players play head-to-head leagues, ESPN has started leaning into doing better...Well, maybe.

Last season, that change came in the form of improved rankings that more accurately reflected player values under their specific scoring settings. Gone are the ranks that looked more like roto ratings and dollar values finally entered the chat. And this year, they've gone further, adding rankings and ADP that are specific to point leagues to their draft rooms. Granted, this has totally enraged a whole mess of confused roto players. But hey; small steps, right?

Unfortunately, a whole other host of changes have also come along for the ride, many of which I'm filing under, "But Why?". Old roster settings? Gone. Old point settings? Kind of gone. Were these changes impactful? Absolutely. Did they make the game more approachable and enjoyable for casual fantasy players? No. No. No - absolutely, not. Sigh; this all could've been avoided by just naming me the Points Czar. But until then we'll just have to crack the new code needed to set ourselves up for success. Let's get to it.

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ESPN H2H Points Standard League Overview

League Size: Anywhere from 4-20 teams for custom leagues but 10-12 team leagues make up a majority of the public leagues.

Hitting Roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT

Pitching Roster: Nine Pitchers, open designation

Standard Scoring:

STOP! Not anymore - new settings have ridden into town. Here are the current default settings for ESPN H2H point leagues:

League Size: Anywhere from 4-20 teams for custom leagues but 10-12 team leagues make up a majority of the public leagues.

Hitting Roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT

Pitching Roster: Seven (7) Pitchers, open designation

Standard Scoring:

Hitter Scoring Notes

It can't be said enough; a hitter's point-scoring profile is just as, if not more so, important than a player's talent. If a skill set doesn't translate well to a scoring system (even if it's valuable in another system or in roto), it's hard for a player to change their value without a major change to their profile.

• The actual scoring for hitters hasn't changed but the roster switch is a MASSIVE switch, as eliminating (2) OF, (1) CI, and 1 (MI) will make for dramatic swings in value. Think of it this way; you used to start 13 hitters, but now it is 9 hitters. In a 12-team league, that means there are 48 players no longer considered "starter worthy". Umm, that's a lot. And it's probably the worst in the outfield - 60 players (not counting those who'd be worth using at UT) used to be "starter-worthy" in a 12-team league, now that number is 36. Again, that's a massive (massive!) change. As in, you know who no longer projects to be "starting-three worthy" (according to the latest ATC projections)? Adolis Garcia, Corbin Carroll, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jake McCarthy, among others. Umm, cool?
• There is (still) a full (-1) point penalty per strikeout. This is the biggest penalty found on the standard settings for the major platforms, as CBS has a (-0.5) penalty, while Fantrax and Yahoo have no penalty. This has a massive effect on hitters' value, obviously dragging down the value of high-K players. But don't discount the passive value that low-K hitters will accumulate over the course of a season. Do you want to know why ATC is projecting Alejandro Kirk to be a better option than J.T. Realmuto (who is projected for a pretty good 22% K%)? It's because Kirk is projected for just 58 K, compared to the 122 K of Realmuto. That's a 60+ point handicap, and one that allows Kirk to close the gap advantage that Realmuto has in virtually every other category.
• Batters (still) only get (+1) points per SB, the lowest of any major platform. Again, this is a pretty big value suck if you don't adjust. IE. If a large part of a player's fantasy value is wrapped up in their speed, they will be comparatively much less valuable on ESPN.

Pitcher Scoring Notes

• Win bonuses are now only worth two (2) points apiece; ESPN was already the lowest platform under the old scoring system (+5 per win), but now they've lapped the field.
• Each ER is (-2), which is double Fantrax (who also doesn't punish hits or walks) and CBS.
• Relievers now get two (2) points per hold. Congratulations, ESPN! A bunch of players that many casual fantasy players do not (and will not) care about are now super valuable if you're willing to do the streaming work.

• Comparing last year's scoring to this year by using 2022 data:

- A.J. Minter would've been a top-10 RP in 2022

- Matt Moore (5 Saves) would've been virtually tied with Gregory Soto (30 Saves)

- Brock Burke (0 Saves) would've been just as valuable as David Bednar (19 Saves) and more valuable than Craig Kimbrel (22 Saves) and Tanner Scott (20 Saves)

Looking at all positions, here are the 10 players who had their raw point scoring increase the most under the new scoring system:

If you've ever thought to yourself, "Man, fantasy baseball is great but I sure wish Aaron Loup was more valuable", then boy, does ESPN have the game for you! But the casual (and even more than casual) player is going to now be at the mercy of any opponent that wants to RP-bomb them for the win, whose biggest value add is grinding out streams. Great. And hey; I'm not faulting those willing to grind - do you. Being a waiver-wire hound in daily leagues can reap massive benefits and ones that shouldn't be dismissed.

But I'm a "big-tent" kind of guy when it comes to fantasy, especially when it comes to getting newer players into the said tent. The more novice players have fun and/or succeed, the more they'll become more serious players. The more serious players there are, the more fantasy grows, and the more it grows, the more people love and pay attention to baseball. To give such a massive advantage in your default game to those willing to commit more time to their game is a really quick way to drive away new (and old) players.

And we haven't even mentioned "the Loophole". And what is that, you might be asking? Well, ESPN public leagues allow a team to make 12 starts per week but will still count the stats if you go over the limit, as long as you started the day below the threshold. So, if you enter Sunday (or any other day) with 11/12 starts, all starts from that day will count as opposed to the stats freezing after the 12th start. IE. Big giant, freaking loophole.

Knowing what we know, let's break down what will likely happen over, and over, and over again this season:

A bunch of players will think they have a great team but will then spend the entire season losing matchups because their opponent streamed shaky relievers every day just to compile a few points at a time, and then start-bombed them over the weekend to take advantage of the aforementioned loophole, running out 15+ starts to their 12.

Great, ESPN. You've successfully made sure that lots of new players will start actively hating playing fantasy baseball because they got smacked around by people with more time to waiver-wire surf/properly "cheat" via a game loophole. But hey, at least middling setup guys will finally get their chance in the sun.

Hitting Strategy for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

It's all about hunting bargains by taking advantage of the competition that is improperly valuing players due to the strikeout penalty and relatively lower stolen base scoring. These per-PA advantages can be found in any scoring system but the weight the aforementioned qualities place on overall value can take these swings to an extreme, compared to what a player's value is generally thought to be.

However, with the new roster rules that make the top-tier hitters ever topp-ier, you are going to have to snag some top-level bats. Plus, the high-ceiling/high-risk guys, are going to be way more worth the chance. The waiver wires will now be so lousy with good hitters (especially outfielders) that fishing for replacements will be a lot easier if things go bust. To rise above the middle of the pack, you're almost forced to take big chances.

Picking hitter winners in points isn't voodoo, it's just an exercise in the power of knowledge. The more you know, and all that. And any RotoBaller premium subscriber (promo code: NOTBURT) can utilize our Custom Point Rankings service and will go into their draft with something like the below, while their opponents try to fumble about without any of the mystic secrets you'll be rolling with.

Hitter Bargains and Busts for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

Bargains

Rowdy Tellez, KC, 1B (ESPN 165 ADP) - Tellez has a classic profile for sneaky success in leagues with a strikeout penalty, combining big power with great plate discipline in a format that won't really punish his low batting average proclivities. He's also a great example of why general point-league advice that starts with "avoid low-OBP guys" isn't always a great fit in every system. The combination of 35 HR, 20.2% K%, and 10.4% BB% led Tellez to a top-75 performance in overall value in 2023, finishing ahead of more popular players at the position like Anthony Rizzo, Rhys Hoskins, and C.J. Cron.

Yandy Diaz, TB, 3B (ESPN 145 ADP) - In our weekly point roundups last season, I spent most of the year imploring those in leagues with a strikeout penalty to accept that Yandy Diaz is a point monster. Ignore him again at your own risk - there still isn't any power but he just doesn't whiff and Diaz pumps out near-.400 OBPs like we roll out of bed...AKA point league gold when every strikeout is (-1). With just an 11% K% (5.3% SwStr%) and a 14% BB% in 2022, Diaz finished as the #7 3B, coming in a clear tier behind the biggest dogs (Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers) but that's OK! He still finished as a top-75 player overall, coming in ahead of the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Bryan Reynolds, and Xander Bogaerts, just to name a few.

Jorge Polanco, MIN, 2B (ESPN 164 ADP) - Injuries and poor performance dragged Polanco down the value tree last season but his well-rounded profile should make him a big bargain for ESPN standard leagues in 2023. Hitting in the middle of an above-average offense, following new Twin, Carlos Correa, and fantasy quasar, Byron Buxton, Polanco should be again set up to rack ~160 R+RBI, with +20 HR and a strikeout rate that's well below average. Plus, the new rules against shifting should serve him well - Polanco faced a full shift 72% in 2023 (up from 40%), posting a .228 AVG and .260 BABIP against them; against all other alignments, they were nearly 30 points higher.

Busts

Okay, before we get started with the biggest busters, let's make some big blanket statements to keep from repeating ourselves. I'll go back to my favorite example from a few years back, as it remains one of the better explanations of how ESPN points work for hitters:

The Ronald Acuna Jr. Paradox:

In 2019, Ronald Acuna Jr. finished with a line of 41 HR - 127 R - 101 RBI - 37 SB - .280/.365/.518.  And yet, he was just the #16 hitter that season according to ESPN standard scoring - mostly because of the -188 points that his 26% K% generated.

It cannot be overstated; the biggest gap between roto value and ESPN points value is with hitters who have >~25% K% and who get a lot of their roto love from the stolen bases that are only worth one point. These massive headwinds are simply just about impossible to overcome, even when you post a near-MVP season like Acuna Jr. did in 2019. Draft accordingly.

Julio Rodriguez, SEA, OF (ESPN 27 ADP) - The good news, is that you can definitely tell the difference in drafting in ESPN point leagues, as Rodriguez's 27 ADP is far away from the virtual top-five lock he's been all year in roto. The bad news is, is that he's still nowhere close to being worth his draft cost. Rodriguez put up one of the best and most exciting rookie years we've seen recently, slashing .284/.345/.509, with 28 HR, 159 R+RBI, and 25 SB. And how did that work out for him in ESPN points? He scored 339 points, ranking him as hitter #52...Or, 10 points less than Yandy Diaz. Read that last part again.

Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA, 2B (ESPN 151 ADP) - Trust me; I'm a big fan of Jazz and am all in on him being a massive fantasy star in 2023...Just not in point leagues with a strikeout penalty. Chisholm's skills might give him a 30/30 upside but strikeout rates are sticky and Jazz has yet to show that he's interested in posting a sub-25% K%. Even with a 27.4% K% in 2022 that was technically a career-best, it came with a 14% SwStr%% that was a career-worst. Chisholm will (and already does) litter many of my teams but never in this format, even at the discounted ADP.

Oneil Cruz, SS, PIT (ESPN 155 ADP) - Take what I said about Jazz Chisholm and double it. Now double it again! Oneil Cruz may have some of the most electrifying raw tools in baseball but his high-K ways are value blackhole and there isn't a number of home runs that can pull you back past the event horizon. Cruz ran a 35% K% in 2022 and basically brought as much value vs LHP than a parking cone would have - in 111 PA vs LHP in 2022, Cruz slashed .158/.225/.307, with a 48 wRC+ and 53% K%. That's right...53%.

Pitching Strategy for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

Before we get to strategies, you should first decide what kind of player you plan on being, so you can draft and plan accordingly.

Are you down with the grind, and are more than comfortable with hitting the wire daily to stream a bulk of your starters and relievers? Then turn to page 142 in this choose-your-own-adventure. Don't have the time or interest to be sucking every drop of blood out of the waiver-wire stone? No shame there, turn to page 289 and find the right path for your game.

Page 142 - Strategies for Streamers

The condensed rosters and increased reliever scoring can help power streamers usher in a new era of dominance. Given the points that can be gained by the non-closing RPs that will litter the wire, I'd attack drafting the following way:

1. I'm only drafting about one of two top starters. The other five pitching spots (and most of my bench) will get filled with a lot of down-ADP SPs that I know I'll be moving in and out of my starting spots, depending on their matchups. Good matchups and I'll overwhelm my opponent with a carpet bombing of starts; bad matchups and I'll head to the wire to scoop some easy RP points.

2. Since I'm only drafting 2-3 pitchers in the first 10-12 rounds, getting a bevy of difference-making bats shouldn't be an issue. But don't just draft any old bats, you're looking to pick off the guys in the top tiers only, looking for the difference makers but not necessarily the biggest names. Ex. Why draft J.T. Realmuto super early when you can get Alejandro Kirk (and that sexy-rexy ESPN scoring profile) over 50 picks later?

Snagging the best hitters by position is a lot easier than it sounds in point leagues where you're likely to have a better understanding of whose skills translate best to the scoring profile*.

* But Nicklaus, how can we possibly know all of that? Well, easy-peasy, my silly geese - just submit your league settings to ol' Nicklaus - in no time at all you'll be rolling with projected rankings via ATC projections, ready to dominate your draft:

Page 289 - Strategies for Streaming Minimalism

Okay, first off, you're still going to have to do some streaming to succeed, just like you need to do in about 99% of non-draft-and-hold leagues. But you can still draft for success and minimize how much wire surfing you'll necessarily have to do.

1. Basically the opposite of our stream-heavy strategy from above;  I'm hammering SPs - and I do mean HAM-MER. As in, I'm drafting top-tier aces until there are no more left.  And by "top-tier", I mean the guys that are going to be auto-starts, regardless of matchups. Keep in mind that even though the new scoring has somewhat nerfed SPs by decreasing their win bonuses, starters will still end up being most of the top raw point scorers - applying the new scoring rules to the 2022 season, starting pitchers still comprised 17 of the top-25 point scorers.

If you're not trying to be Streamy McStreamface every week, I'd highly recommend building out your pitching with the ol' Ron Popeil method:

2. I'm ignoring RPs. But Nicklaus didn't you just say that relievers gain a ton of value under the new scoring system? Well, yes...Kind of. RPs do gain a lot of value, just not the top-tier ones. Hell, we don't even have to limit it to top-tier closers. Actual (capital C) closers aren't necessarily going to score more points, as they're generally not getting holds. And considering they get fewer points for the handful of wins they'll get, they could arguably score fewer points. For example, Edwin Diaz scored 414 points in 2022 under the old system but would've scored 408 points under the new system.

Considering what you're trying to do with your starting pitchers, using a valuable pick on someone like Diaz (who scored fewer points than Merrill Kelly in 2022, ICYMI) is just a waste.

3. After filling my belly chock full of aces, it's time to pivot to taking about 10 hitters in a row, or so. The sexy names will be gone but you, dear reader, know of the bargains that can be had when evaluating players according to their specific scoring profiles, as well as which points per-PA landmines to step over.

Jorge Polanco, Rowdy Tellez, and Taylor Ward are all going after a 150 ADP but are all projected as top-100 point-scorers by ATC. Nico Hoerner and Josh Naylor are both going after 200 ADP but are projected as top-125 players. If you know your scoring system, there are hitter deals to be found everywhere.

Pitcher Bargains and Busts for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

Bargains

Spencer Strider, ATL, SP (ESPN 48 ADP) - The price is high but so is the ceiling. It's the high-K guys that are set to most benefit from the relative downgrade that the pool gets from fewer points per win and you couldn't ask for more from Strider. He posted a 38% K% in his rookie season after running rates north of 35% for his entire career in the minors - this is a skill you can bank on.

Hunter Greene, CIN, SP (ESPN 144 ADP) - Sensing a pattern yet? The home ballpark stinks and so does his chances for a bunch of wins given Cincinnati's current talent level but what Greene does bring to the table is piles of strikeouts, with an innings load as good, if not better, than many "pitch-to-contact" guys. ATC is projecting Greene to be a top-30 point-scorer among starters but is currently being drafted closer to the top 50.

Busts

Clayton Kershaw, LAD, SP (ESPN 117 ADP) - Kershaw is a solid option in roto but takes a big hit in points, especially considering the decreased bonuses for Wins, which is where the now crafty veteran gets a chunk of his value-add in other formats. Without a big innings load or strikeout rate, Kershaw is not the type of starter set to excel in the ESPN format.

Tony Gonsolin, LAD, SP (ESPN 150 ADP) - It's almost ditto for Kershaw's teammate in LA, as Gonsolin doesn't have a big strikeout rate and hasn't pitched more than 130 IP in a season before. His superb roto value in 2022 was driven by his 16 wins and elite ratios, neither of which translate well to ESPN points. Even using last year's scoring system, Gonsolin was only 27th in points among starting pitchers - also known as tied with Martin Perez. Under the new scoring, he would've dropped to 35th.

Blake Snell, SD, SP (ESPN 105 ADP) - Unlike the two above, Snell has no problems racking up strikeouts, finishing 2022 with a 32% K%. But until he starts going 150+ IP, this is not the points accumulator you are looking for, as his high-WHIP ways will nickel-and-dime his strikeout points way down. In case you were wondering, Snell has gone more than 129 IP exactly one time.

Pretty Much Every Top Closer Inside 150 ADP - Trust me; they're not going to be worth it. Closers don't get holds and now get fewer points for their random wins. This is not the build that you're looking for.

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