ESPN H2H Points League Primer - Strategy, Bargains and Busts for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

January 31, 2025

Nicklaus Gaut looks at ESPN fantasy baseball points leagues sleepers, busts and draft strategy. He breaks down how to win your ESPN H2H point leagues in 2025.

With February right around the corner, we're getting into the full swing of the fantasy baseball draft season. ESPN has recently opened up its 2025 draft rooms, and the worldwide leader in platform size also leads the league in leaning into their points format being the default option.

Playing on ESPN successfully means properly accounting for their unique (relative to other platforms) scoring for hitters, who receive both the fewest rewards for speed and the biggest penalty for whiffing. In other words, those looking to take a fantasy Cruz(s) should probably look away now. Don't worry, though, we have you covered and we'll go over all the strategies to win your ESPN leagues, as well as identify the values, sleepers, and busts that should be on your radar.

Don't forget that regardless of where you play or in what format, RotoBaller is again offering our premium Custom Rankings Service in 2025 to help you win your league, whether you're playing H2H Points, Categories, Best Ball, or Roto.

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ESPN H2H Points Standard League Overview

League Size: Anywhere from 4-20 teams for custom leagues, but 10-12 team leagues make up a majority of the public leagues.

Hitting Roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT

Pitching Roster: Seven (7) Pitchers, open designation

Standard Scoring:

Hitter Scoring Notes

It can't be said enough that a hitter's point-scoring profile is just as important, if not more so, important than a player's talent. If a skill set doesn't translate well to a scoring system (even if it's valuable in another system or in roto), it's hard for a player to change their value without a major change to their profile.

• ESPN made a dramatic switch in their standard lineups two seasons ago,  eliminating (2) OF, (1) CI, and 1 (MI). This is a large roster crunch that devalued the fantasy middle class.
• There is a full (-1) point penalty per strikeout. This is the biggest penalty found on the standard settings for the major platforms, as CBS has a (-0.5) penalty, while Fantrax, Yahoo, and NFBC have no penalty. This has a massive effect on hitters' value, obviously dragging down the value of high-K players, but don't discount the passive value that low-K hitters will accumulate over the course of a season.
• Batters only get (+1) points per SB, which is the lowest of any major platform. Again, this is a pretty big value suck if you don't adjust, even if a one-point difference seems light. IE. If a large part of a player's fantasy value is wrapped up in their speed, they will be comparatively much less valuable on ESPN.

Pitcher Scoring Notes

• Win bonuses are only worth two (2) points, the lowest of any platform by far.
• Each ER is (-2), which is, for comparison, double the penalty of Fantrax (who also doesn't punish hits or walks) and CBS.
• Relievers get two (2) points per hold, another new addition from the big swap two seasons ago. While this does, technically, push up the value of a lot of non-closers, theoretically making them more interesting/draftable, do be aware that you'll need to do a lot of daily grinding (with a lot of good fortune) to actually leverage their increased scoring. It's a risky proposition, my friends.

Hitting Strategy for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

It's all about hunting bargains by taking advantage of the competition that is improperly valuing players due to the strikeout penalty and relatively lower stolen base scoring. These per-PA advantages can be found in any scoring system, but the weight the aforementioned qualities place on overall value can take these swings to an extreme compared to what a player's value is generally thought to be.

However, with the new roster rules that make the top-tier hitters ever "top-ier," you are going to have to snag some top-level bats. Plus, the high-ceiling/high-risk guys, are going to be way more worth the chance.

The waiver wires will now be so lousy with good hitters (especially outfielders) that fishing for replacements will be a lot easier if things go bust. To rise above the middle of the pack, you're almost forced to take big chances.

Don't get ahead of yourself, though -- before you can run away with hitter values, you must first walk the path of understanding a foundational truth:

The Ronald Acuna Jr. Paradox:

In 2019, Ronald Acuna Jr. finished with a line of 41 HR - 127 R - 101 RBI - 37 SB - .280/.365/.518, which, at the time, was one of the silliest overall fantasy seasons we'd seen recently.  And yet, he was just the #16 hitter that season according to ESPN standard scoring - mostly because of the -188 points that his 26% K% generated.

It cannot be overstated; the biggest gap between ESPN points value and other point platforms/roto is with hitters who have >~25% K% and who get a lot of their roto love from the stolen bases that are only worth one point. These massive headwinds are simply just about impossible to overcome, even when you post a near-MVP season like Acuna Jr. did in 2019. Draft accordingly.

Picking hitter winners in points isn't voodoo, it's just an exercise in the power of knowledge. The more you know, and all that. Any RotoBaller premium subscriber (promo code: NOTBURT) can utilize our Custom Point Rankings service and will go into their draft with something like the below while their opponents try to fumble about without any of the mystic secrets you'll be rolling with.

Hitter Bargains and Busts for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

Bargains

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR, 1B

Building a strong points team is about stacking values and you don't have to wait until later rounds to start snagging them. Guerrero Jr. has always had a profile perfect for points success, but that value gets supercharged in leagues with a strikeout penalty, as he's coming off of a career-best 13.8% K% in 2024, bringing him even further down to a 15.6% K% over his six years in the bigs.

Guerrero Jr. was the No. 8 player on ESPN last season and is projected to be #3 in 2025, according to the latest ATC projections. Keep it simple when building your hitter base; Guerrero Jr. is a first-round value going in the second round -- that's an easy one to bank away.

William Contreras, MIL, C

Adley Rutschman, BAL, C

I don't normally recommend going hard on backstops in one-catcher leagues but Contreras and Rutschman are such a cut above everyone else under ESPN scoring that it might be worth paying their prices.

Contreras and Rutschman both have profiles that would set them up for success in K-penalty leagues, regardless of position, combining elite discipline with above-average power and tons of PAs. They're catchers, though, which shoots them up into unicorn land. Not very many catchers can be counted on to reach 600 PA, and just as few will give you both plate discipline and (relative) power.

Our boys do all of the above, and no one else does. Both finished with a top-50 and top-15 (overall) ranking in 2023-2024, and both are projected by ATC to be in the top-20 in 2025. If you're thinking about paying up at catcher, Contreras and Rutschman are the clear-cut best options.

Josh Naylor, ARI, 1B

This might sound familiar; Naylor has top-cut plate discipline at a position that doesn't always boast it but still has enough power to compete with his peers. Just don't get too carried away, and again, expect the 31 HR, 84 R, and 108 RBI that he racked in his last season at the factory of sadness.

With the aforementioned counting stats, along with a 17%K%, Naylor finished as the No. 31 overall player in 2024 after coming in at a respectable No. 95 in 2023. This is a profile that'll continue to play. Even with ATC projections that bake in a reasonable amount of regression in his first year in Arizona, Naylor is still projected to be a top-50 player in 2025.

Alex Bregman, FA, 3B

Let the hate flow through you! Bregman seems to inspire a unique level of fantasy angst, and that anger was on full display after an atrocious April (.216/.283/.294, .259 wOBA) and only slightly better May (.221/.276/.442, .308 wOBA).

However, it turns out that all the same bones were still there, and maybe a .223 BABIP was holding him back just a bit; Bregman ended the season on basically a four-month heater, slashing .284/.337/.500, with a .358 wOBA and 137 wRC+ over 398 PA.

Even when he's "bad," Bregman always brings elite discipline and piles of PA, AKA the points-star starter kit, especially under ESPN rules. Bregman was the No. 11 overall player on the platform in 2023 and still finished at No. 40 in 2024, even with the horrible two-month handicap.

Projected by ATC to again be a top-50 player in 2025, Bregman will again be able to be had in most leagues outside of the top-100. Even without a current home, that type of value can be a cornerstone of your ESPN roster and shouldn't be ignored.

Busts

Julio Rodriguez, SEA, OF

Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL, OF

Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY, 3B/OF

Let's deal with the above trio together to avoid getting too repetitive. There are plenty of nits to pick with how their profiles don't fit well into ESPN standard settings, but we'll keep it simple: it's the stolen bases, silly.

All three have well-rounded fantasy profiles but whether playing points or roto a significant amount of their value is wrapped in the bevy of stolen bases they'll provide. ESPN, however, only awards one point per SB, whereas the unofficial industry standard is two points per bag. It might seem like a minor change, but it ultimately greatly affects their overall values.

Chisholm had 40 SB in 2024 and is projected for 38 SB in 2025 by ATC. An ~40-point difference may not seem like a ton, but Chisholm only scored 333 points in 2024 and is projected for 342 points in 2025; 40 points is the difference in multiple rounds of value.

This is a classic case of great players having profiles that are simply bad fits in a scoring system. They've never been worth their draft prices on ESPN and I'd bet large that won't suddenly change this season. It's just too hard to outrun your profile.

Elly De La Cruz, CIN, SS

What if I were to tell you that you could have even more of the bad from the speed-heavy trio (De La Cruz had 67 SB in 2024 and is projected for 55 SB in 2025) but with a +30% K% and an even higher draft price? Is that something you might be interested in?

Well, you shouldn't be, at least not at EDLC's top-five draft price. To be fair, his ADP will likely be lower once we see some data from ESPN but I promise he's not dropping out of the first round. And if that's the case, he simply cannot be drafted - he's fantasy box-office poison.

In 2024, De La Cruz put up a line that was positively silly in terms of fantasy goodness, finishing with 25 HR, 105 R, 76 RBI, and 67(!) SB. I mean, that's crazy impressive...And do you know where he finished on ESPN?

No. 22.

Which, hey! That is certainly nothing to be disappointed in. But it's also not first-round value, right? So all he has to do to earn his draft price is have a (much) better year than he did last year. Easy-peezy.

Unfortunately, even with the shiny projections that De La Cruz has received from ATC (25 HR, 96 R, 78 RBI, 55 SB), he's still nowhere close to being a first-round value, projecting him as the No. 62 overall player. Which, again, is not too shabby! Especially for ATC, which tends to run a bit more conservative.

Hell, I'd go so far as to say he'll meet and or surpass ATC projections. But I'm still not drafting him in the first round.

De La Cruz simply won't become an ESPN points star until he makes a dramatic slice to the 32% K% that is strapped to his value's back. Which can certainly happen - see; Acuna Jr., Ronald. But I'm not paying first-round prices until some serious strides are made.

Oneil Cruz, PIT, SS/OF

I can at least understand someone wanting to bet on the upside of De La Cruz but if you're still drafting Oneil Cruz in ESPN leagues, you might just have a masochism problem.

Cruz loves striking out as much as our new shar-pei puppy loves snorting like a pig searching for truffles and I don't think either one is changing any time soon. Projected by ATC to be the No. 189 overall player after finishing at No. 168 last season; only draft Cruz before pick 200 if you're trying to prove your fantasy mettle by attaching a giant anchor to your team.

Friends don't let friends draft Oneil Cruz.

Anthony Volpe, NYY, SS

Volpe proves you don't have to have a gross strikeout rate to be a bad fit on ESPN, as his 23% K% in 2024 wasn't too onerous and was down from 28% K% in 2023. However, he's a low-average/OBP guy who doesn't have a ton of power and doesn't play very well on this platform.

ATC projects Volpe as a top-80 player on the other four major platforms (Yahoo, Fantrax, CBS, NFBC) but only No. 194 on ESPN. That, my friends, is a platform-specific profile problem, and those are the hardest ones to overcome.

Pitching Strategy for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

Before we get to strategies, you should first decide what kind of player you plan on being so you can draft and plan accordingly.

Are you down with the grind, and are more than comfortable with hitting the wire daily to stream a bulk of your starters and relievers? Then turn to page 142 in this choose-your-own-adventure. Don't have the time or interest to be sucking every drop of blood out of the waiver-wire stone? No shame there, turn to page 289 and find the right path for your game.

Page 142 - Strategies for Streamers

The condensed rosters and increased reliever scoring that ESPN implemented two years ago can help power streamers usher in a new era of dominance. But you're gonna have to work. Given the points that can be gained by the non-closing RPs that will litter the wire, I'd attack drafting the following way:

1. I'm only drafting about one of two top starters. The other five pitching spots (and most of my bench) will get filled with a lot of down-ADP SPs that I know I'll be moving in and out of my starting spots, depending on their matchups. Good matchups, and I'll overwhelm my opponent with a carpet bombing of starts; bad matchups, and I'll head to the wire to scoop some easy RP points.

2. Since I'm only drafting two to three pitchers in the first 10-12 rounds, getting a bevy of difference-making bats shouldn't be an issue. But don't just draft any old bats; you're looking to pick off the guys in the top tiers only, looking for the difference makers but not necessarily the biggest names.

Snagging the best hitters by position is a lot easier than it sounds in point leagues, where you're likely to have a better understanding of whose skills translate best to the scoring profile*.

* But Nicklaus, how can we possibly know all of that? Well, easy-peasy, my silly geese - just submit your league settings to ol' Nicklaus - in no time at all, you'll be rolling with projected rankings via ATC projections, ready to dominate your draft.

Page 289 - Strategies for Streaming Minimalism

Okay, first off, you're still going to have to do some streaming to succeed, just like you need to do in about 99% of non-draft-and-hold leagues. But you can still draft for success and minimize how much wire surfing you'll necessarily have to do.

1. Basically, the opposite of our stream-heavy strategy from above;  I'm hammering SPs - and I do mean HAM-MER. As in, I'm drafting top-tier aces until there are no more left.  And by "top-tier," I mean the guys that are going to be auto-starts, regardless of matchups.

Keep in mind that even though the scoring changes from two years ago somewhat nerfed SPs by decreasing their win bonuses, starters will still end up being most of the top raw point scorers.

If you're not trying to be Streamy McStreamface every week, I'd highly recommend building out your pitching with the ol' Ron Popeil method:

2. I'm ignoring RPs. But Nicklaus, didn't you just say that relievers gain a ton of value under the new scoring system? Well, yes...Kind of. RPs do gain a lot of value, just not the top-tier ones. Hell, we don't even have to limit it to top-tier closers.

Actual (capital C) closers aren't necessarily going to score more points, as they're generally not getting holds. And considering they get fewer points for the handful of wins they'll get, they will arguably score fewer points.

Considering what you're trying to do with your starting pitchers, using a valuable pick on someone who won't score as many points as a mid-tier starter doesn't make much sense.

3. After filling my belly chock full of aces, it's time to pivot to taking about 10 hitters in a row or so. The sexy names will be gone, but you, dear reader, know of the bargains that can be had when evaluating players according to their specific scoring profiles, as well as which points per PA landmines to step over.

If you know your scoring system, there are hitter deals to be found everywhere. For example, all the ones we talked about earlier. Wink.

Pitcher Bargains and Busts for ESPN H2H Point Leagues

Bargains

Framber Valdez, HOU, SP

Like a rectangular metronome made out of bricks, all Valdez does is put up excellent ratios and solid strikeouts over piles of innings, racking up double-digit wins while playing on a perennial contender. I don't care if it's points on ESPN, points on Yahoo, roto, or anything in between; if it's fantasy baseball, Framber Valdez is probably a bargain.

And yet, his 50-60ish ADP will be the same, just like every year, always getting pushed to a lower-tier conversation by drafters wanting someone shinier. In 2023, Valdez scored about 400 points and was about a top-10 pitcher; in 2024, Valdez scored about 400 points and was about a top-10 pitcher. In 2025, ATC is projecting Valdez to score about 400 points and be a top-10 pitcher. It's almost like there is a pattern.

He may not be flashy but Valdez is just straight cash in your bank you can count on.

Mason Miller, OAK, RP

I have plenty of hate for RPs on ESPN, but I'm going out of my way to get Mason Miller. For one, the price is right, as Miller's average ADP puts him as the ninth/10th RP off the board.

I'd love to tell you his current ADP on ESPN, but unfortunately, their ADP is historically annoying to get and, as of this writing, still isn't on their site or in their draft rooms. I'd bet on it being in the 120-150 range, with folks being less likely to pull an early trigger on an Athletics closer, no matter how good he is.

That's a mistake, though, because Miller doesn't have to get 30+ Saves to be worth his price, given how many points his stellar ratios and K-rate are going to get you, just as he was last season, when his 28 Saves, 2.49 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 42(!)% K% made him the seventh-best RP on ESPN.

Miller scored 346 points last season and is projected for 331 points this season; by comparison, Josh Hader (who we'll talk about shortly) scored 360 points last year and is projected for the same 331 points as Miller this year. Do you want to pay top-75 prices for your closer or top-125?

Sandy Alcantara, MIA, SP

When inputting the first ATC projections into my value creator, I was fairly surprised to see how lowly they had Alcantara ranked. Of course, he is coming off missing the entirety of the 2024 season, but it's now been nearly 18 months since his surgery, and his profile was very points-friendly before the injury.

So why does ATC think he is not so nice, projecting him as just the 69th-best SP in 2025 while his aggregated ADP is ~150? Ahh, it's the innings, silly.

ATC doesn't hate the player, just the game(s played), projecting Alcantara for just 153 IP in 2025. Which, to be fair, is reasonable for a player coming off of TJ surgery, but it's also the most conservative of the major projection systems by a significant margin, with Steamer (and others) calling for around 178 IP.

We're also not just talking about any old pitcher; this is Sandy Alcantara, a capital-H horse among normal horses, who has only failed to reach 195 IP in one of his four full seasons...and he still had 184.2 IP. Call me an optimist in thinking he'll blow past ATC's projections.

So, what would happen if we used the same ATC projections but stretched them out to 185 IP? Well, Alcantara now projects as the No. 35 SP, which would make him a steal at a post-150 ADP.

Busts

Josh Hader, HOU, RP

Like many of our busters, this isn't about Hader himself being a bust; it's about how he fits into the system, and ESPN just doesn't value his position very much. Relative to ADP, that is. To repeat it again, RPs can be very valuable in the right strategy but paying the hefty prices of the top-tier guys probably isn't going to be your most efficient move for filling out your closer-army.

Hader, along with Emmanuel Clase and Edwin Diaz, are going in the top 75 of most drafts, but the gap between their scoring and guys who are a lot cheaper isn't as much as you might expect due to how ESPN's scoring runs.

For example, ATC is projecting Hader to score 331 points, the fourth most amount RPs, but that's not too far in front of Felix Bautista's 304 points, especially over the course of a head-to-head season. Bautista can be had post-150 ADP, though. Or maybe Jhoan Duran (296 points, 121 ADP) or Ryan Walker (296 points, 162 ADP).

Winning in points is all about value, why draft a top closer with a premium pick when you can still capture a large chunk of their value 75 picks later?

Hunter Greene, CIN, SP

While I like Greene as a pitcher (and fantasy asset), in general, ESPN's scoring doesn't do him any favors. And that might go double for a 2025 outlook which seems to have some regression looming.

Greene took a massive step forward in 2024, posting elite ratios that were far and away the best of his young career. Coming into last season, Greene carried a 4.62 ERA (4.31 FIP) and 1.31 WHIP over the first 238 IP but blew away all expectations, finishing with a 2.75 ERA (3.47 FIP) and 1.02 WHIP while still posting a great (though, down three points) 28% K%.

However, all that goodness was backed by a 4.19 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA (not to mention an 81% strand rate), signaling our ol' pal regression will likely appear in 2025, which is fine! I mean, we can't just expect sub-3.00 ERAs every year, right?

But if Greene's going to give up a lot more runs, ESPN and their -2 points per ER are going to punish his scoring some weeks, and I don't have that type of liability in one of my first few SPs.

Jacob deGrom, TEX, SP

Some dreams will never die. Sure, deGrom could somehow find the fountain of youth* but will he? Will he really reach the 150+ IP that many projection systems are calling for? Or even the 114 IP from ATC? Do you really think so? Like, really, really?

*I'm pretty sure it's in Germany and is just super-soldier platelets.

Over/Under of 75 IP for your life - whatcha taking?

The now 36-year-old deGrom finished with 10.2 IP in 2024, 30.1 IP in 2023, 64 IP in 2022, and 92 IP in 2021. If you squint, you can almost see a pattern.

Listen, I want him to hit the ol' rejuvenator button, too, and somehow come back to pick 100+ IP. That's just a good thing. But hope is dangerous, especially at what is his still way too-high draft cost. Save yourself the heartburn and pass on the once but former god.

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