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Andrew Ball details potential quarterback busts for fantasy football early in the NFL offseason and explains why you should avoid drafting them.
Are you a fantasy football manager who prefers to wait to select your quarterback or one who spends a higher pick on one of the elite options? Unfortunately, neither strategy is bust-proof.
Patrick Mahomes was proof of that in 2023. A consensus top-three signal-caller, Mahomes ended the season as the QB8, a tough pill for players who used their second- or third-round selection on the two-time MVP. The most talented quarterback in the NFL did not have the appropriate weapons around him to live up to his fantasy football draft capital. Instead, the Chiefs were able to run the ball and stifle opposing offenses en route to another Super Bowl victory.
Like Mahomes, situations are changing for the three quarterbacks listed below, who fantasy managers may want to avoid in 2024.
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Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett have all moved east. That's the three top target earners for the Chargers, plus Williams, who would have fallen in that category if not for a season-ending knee injury. Former head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore have also found new jobs. Justin Herbert is the constant of a franchise undergoing significant renovations.
Change isn't always a bad thing. New coaches and receivers can sometimes unlock an extra level of production never before seen from a quarterback. This isn't one of those times.
Every transaction that head coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz have made indicates a strategic shift toward building an elite defense and bruising running attack. Hortiz came to Los Angeles from Baltimore, brought former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman with him, and shipped out their alpha, albeit aging, franchise wide receiver.
Some of those moves had to be made. Los Angeles could not afford to retain both receivers plus pass-rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. They opted to keep the defenders, leaving Herbert with Joshua Palmer and first-round bust Quentin Johnston as his top wideouts.
Harbaugh only allowed Michigan product J.J. McCarthy to throw 22 times a game last season, including 18 in the National Championship. If Harbaugh can win with "the best quarterback in the draft" barely slinging, why wouldn't he use Herbert the same way?
Jim Harbaugh doubled down on J.J. McCarthy: “I think he’s the best quarterback in the draft,” he said from AFC coaches breakfast. Says a ‘killer comes out’ when adversity hits. pic.twitter.com/Qqih514GcN
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) March 25, 2024
The Chargers do own the fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft. If quarterbacks fly off the board early, as is anticipated, Harbaugh and Co. will get their pick of the litter. Receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers will be enticing and would recoup some of Herbert's lost value if one is selected. However, they could just as easily stay committed to their style of football and pick offensive tackle Joe Alt.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
How can a quarterback throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle be a bust? Miami has too much talent from its skill positions and added to the group with tight end Jonnu Smith.
Tua Tagovailoa proved exactly how in 2023. Fantasy managers sometimes only think about wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs when analyzing quarterbacks. Offensive linemen don't score fantasy points on Sundays, but they're arguably just as important when looking at the bigger picture.
Tagovailoa was the QB5 through nine weeks heading into the team's bye week, averaging a healthy 19.2 points per game (the same number as soon-to-be MVP Lamar Jackson). From Week 14 through the end of the regular season, that figure slipped to 12.8 points per game, good for QB21.
Hill and Waddle were in and out of the lineup due to injuries but the primary reason for Tagovailoa's struggles was due to injuries along the offensive line. Center Connor Williams tore his ACL on that Monday Night Football matchup with Tennessee in Week 14, joining guard Robert Hunt and tackle Terron Armstead on the sideline.
Tagovailoa was pressured on 21.66% of his dropbacks in that late-season window, despite defenses blitzing less often than in previous games. Twelve of Tagovailoa's 29 sacks he took in 2023 also came in that time frame.
Armstead has never played an entire season in his 11-year career and will turn 33 years old before training camp. Hunt signed with the Carolina Panthers in the offseason. Williams' knee injury is preventing him from signing with the Dolphins or another team. The Dolphins have one reliable, high-performing offensive lineman for the upcoming season, free-agent addition Aaron Brewer.
One potential positive for Tagovailoa will be the play of the Miami defense. The unit was average in 2023, despite several high-profile names like Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, Bradley Chubb, Jaelen Phillips, and Christian Wilkins. Two of those five names (Howard and Wilkins) aren't on the roster anymore. Two others (Chubb and Phillips) suffered a torn ACL and Achilles, respectively, late in the season and may not be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign. Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, and DeShon Elliott have also departed. The depth chart is littered with holes.
That's a screenshot of the depth chart listed on the Dolphins' official website. Granted, it doesn't account for offseason additions like linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker Jr., safety Jordan Poyer, or cornerback Kendall Fuller. If the defense can't slow down opposing offenses, Tagovailoa will often face a game script that behooves his fantasy numbers.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the debacle in Denver, Russell Wilson's name still carries a lot of weight to casual NFL fans. He's a Super Bowl champion and MVP, married to a celebrity, and remains one of the goofiest online personas.
Gettin’ ready for date night & need Daddy to rock the baby to sleep! Daddy’s got it covered! Im just here for support 😂🥰 #DaddyRock @DangeRussWilson pic.twitter.com/DDS7JRcSem
— Ciara (@ciara) February 4, 2024
The part of Wilson's 2023 season that will be remembered come August is his late-season benching to career backup Jarrett Stidham. But it wasn't due to poor performance. Sure, Denver was all but eliminated from the postseason after an embarrassing home loss to the lowly Patriots on Christmas Eve, but the Broncos were ready to start anew. They knew they'd part ways with Wilson in the offseason and didn't want an injury interfering with their plans.
Before that benching, Wilson was fantasy football's QB9. His touchdown rate jumped from 3.3% in 2022 to 5.8% in 2023, more in line with his career average. He also rushed 25 more times in the same amount of games. A real rapport was made with wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Jerry Jeudy may have finished just 14 receiving yards behind his counterpart, but there was little question about who the WR1 was in Denver. Ten of Wilson's 26 passing touchdowns were snagged by Sutton.
Wilson better hope George Pickens becomes his new Courtland Sutton in Pittsburgh or that touchdown rate may slip again. The Steelers opted to ship out Diontae Johnson this offseason, sliding Pickens to the top of the depth chart. The third-year wideout notched 1,140 yards on 63 receptions, leading the league with 18.1 yards per catch. While nearly all of his numbers increased from Year 1 to Year 2, Pickens did not score a red-zone touchdown in 2023.
Wilson will connect with Pickens on several deep passes in 2024 (although his fantastic "moon ball" completion numbers have plummeted since his impressive mark in 2018), but he'll need a reliable underneath option to be worthy of a starting spot on fantasy rosters.
Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson are currently the next-best receivers on the roster. Tight end Pat Freiermuth may end up being the runner-up in the target department.
Head coach Mike Tomlin has historically leaned on his running backs to move the football on offense. Riding Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, the Steelers finished fifth in run percentage in 2023. The team right above them, the Atlanta Falcons, fired their head coach and play-caller, Arthur Smith. He's now in charge of the offensive playbook in the Steel City and brought another running back, Cordarrelle Patterson, with him. The run game will be established.
Wilson may be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett, but he is more of a glorified game manager in black and yellow. That's if he's winning games; otherwise, the fan base will scream for Justin Fields to take the field.
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