RADIO
Here are the usual suspects (in draft order): Jacob Bogardus, Brad Johnson, Alex Brock, Harris Yudin, Max Petrie, Josh Leonard, Ross Williamson, Andrew Miller (from The Fantasy Fix), Nick Mariano (myself), Tom Bellucco, Brian Dunshee (also from The Fantasy Fix), and Edward Suletan.
Reminder - this was a traditional 5x5 redraft 23 round mock with 2 catchers, a corner and middle infielder, and 5 outfield slots.
In case you missed it, here are the articles breaking down Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, and Rounds 5-7. I've put the draft board in for reference at the end.
Analyzing Rounds 8-12
The eighth round saw six outfielders go, two third basemen, one first baseman, two starters, and our first closer in Craig Kimbrel. We’re at that point in the draft where these outfielders will each have their fleas, but in the 5 OF format they are precious cargo. Matt Duffy feels out of line here, as our RotoBaller composite rankings have him as the 16th 3B. I'm not paying this much for Duffman when his surprising power numbers were surpassed by other three baggers still on the board. Kimbrel isn’t my #1 RP, but scoring two tier one guys here at his turn is a bold strategy for Brad. Michael Brantley hasn't suffered any setbacks so far in his recovery from shoulder surgery, but you still hate to have that aura about him and the probability that he misses time to open the season. You'll need him to be 100% upon returning for this to pay out.
The ninth round was pretty straight forward, with the rest of the tier one closers going. Yu Darvish and Tyson Ross are both risky picks, with the former needing to come back from Tommy John surgery in good form and the latter needing to rein in his control. My favorite pick has to be Danny Salazar, as the guy could make the leap with his electric stuff in 2016. Andrew agrees, pegging Danny as his steal of the draft: “He has almost a 10 K/9 for his career, he's shown he can make adjustments, and improve throughout the season. He should've went at least a round earlier.
The tenth round was an impressive one, especially getting Evan Longoria with the last pick of the round. Longoria never did make it to that “elite” level at third base, but he gives consistent production (at least 160 games played in each of the past three seasons) and the drop off after him is steep. Harris and Brad both said they had their best picks in this round. Harris said he has Hosmer at #80 with an expectation for continued improvement, so to get him at #100 was great. Brad said of Belt: “His 1B/OF eligibility is useful. Injuries have hidden just how good of a hitter he's become. He has his flaws, but he makes mighty hard contact. He's probably a Round 7 talent.”
Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Pineda, Francisco Liriano, and Garrett Richards all went in succession. Let's touch 'em all: I love Quintana, he’s been consistently producing a sub 3.50 ERA while staying healthy for a few years now. Zimmermann goes to the AL Central, and while he has great command, I’m not a fan of his weaker strikeout stuff holding up in this division. Pineda flashed greatness and has amazing peripherals (e.g. his xFIP was 2.95!), but health is a huge red flag as he landed on the DL last year while still doubling his innings thrown in a year which can make injury in the following year more likely. Liriano has great stuff but his bugaboo that keeps him from the next tier is his control issues, as a BB/9 well over 3 is hard to rely on, though I think I'd have taken him first out of these five. Richards has some wicked stuff, including the fastest fastball among qualified starters at 95.7 MPH, but needs to regain command. He walked more and missed corners often. This leads to a dampening of your overall effectiveness, and we saw the results. He probably won't be on any team of mine this year.
Billy Hamilton kicks off Round 11, and while he’s one of the few names on my “do not draft” list, I do respect the wheels. However, those wheels could be as strong as Fred Flintstone’s, but it can’t buy enough hits to make him worth it. Touching 60 steals is amazing for that category, but at what cost? His average was .226 (that .264 BABIP feels low, even with his poor batted ball profile) and his OBP has been below .300 in each of his two full seasons in the bigs. Out of the 176 batters with at least 450 plate appearances in 2015, his .274 OBP was fourth worst. It hurts to watch him swing the bat. I'd much rather own him in H2H leagues where I can deploy him as necessary to win steals, but I'll never pay the price others will for him.
Christian Yelich is a solid pick, as his 2015 was tainted by a back injury that really tanked his first half. Much is made of his swing, as he pulverizes the ball into the ground at a 62.5% clip and may never be a 15-20 home run bat. This does mean that his .300 average and high BABIP should be rather sustainable though, and 20 steals feels like a rather safe projection with 25 steals not being that outrageous. That run total of his should be solid, especially if Stanton stays healthy mashing behind him.
It’d be silly not to speak on Raisel Iglesias, who is someone I like to refer to as a “sleepwalker” – one who is not a sleeper anymore due to his walking up the draft board. Iglesias struck out 104 in 95 innings along with an ERA of 4.15 which doesn’t give him nearly enough credit for how well he pitched. A 3.55 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, and 3.26 SIERA along with a healthy first strike rate and a normal BABIP paint a pretty picture. He won’t pitch more than 180 innings, so do be aware. Again, picking on the turn means you have to grab the guy you want, even if their ADP is 20 spots lower than your pick, your next pick won’t be for another 22.
Round 12 saw Brian McCann go, which I thought was good for a 25 home run bat out of the C slot in a two catcher league. I’ll be interested to see if people draft Michael Conforto any differently now that Yoenis Cespedes is back with the Mets and there’s a bit of an OF logjam (doubtful, but still). I didn’t believe in Shin-Soo Choo going into last year and he made me eat crow, tying his career high with 22 homers. It looks like the days of Choo stealing bags are gone, but if the average and power stick around this year then you’ve got a solid pick. I will say that I’d rather have Matt Holliday, who Andrew selected two rounds later.
Julio Teheran surprised me, but there are those who see his 2015 as more of a blip than a real data point for him. If we’re talking reclamation projects, I’d much rather have Jeff Samardzija who went to Alex four picks later. On the one hand, I think Teheran’s struggles are not easily written off as he lost command of the strike zone and everything unraveled from there. As for Shark, it isn’t as though his fleas are easily washed off either, but his upside is greater. He leaves the White Sox and their subpar defense and hitter’s park for the Giants’ plus defense and pitcher’s park. If he can get batters to put the ball on the ground around half of the time like he did in 2013 and 2014, he could have a great 2016. For his upside on San Francisco, this is a good risk to take in my eyes.
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