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Josh Constantinou provides analysis for six breakout candidates at the running back position in 2023 fantasy football.
We are on the precipice of the NFL season. Fantasy drafts are happening daily, best ball season is wrapping up, and players will soon take the field for meaningful football, making it a great time to examine breakout players for 2023.
Every year, some players exceed their previous career highs, leveling up to the next tier. Accurately identifying those players is very valuable because you can trade for or draft them at their current value, which will be a discount compared to their final production. While there is no crystal ball or a time machine to know for sure who will fit that description, there are some indicators that we can look for, including youth, opportunity, past production, draft capital, and underlying metrics.
This article will focus on running backs, a position where the depth chart is constantly changing. It's also a spot where teams continue to favor youth, often electing to draft a replacement instead of paying aging veterans. Below you'll find six names with a strong path to breaking out and reaching that next tier this year.
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Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
Herbert showcased his talent last season, enabling the Bears to feel comfortable moving on from David Montgomery. In the three games Herbert has played without Montgomery in 2021 and 2022, he's finished as the RB11, RB9, and RB1 in half-PPR scoring. He also produced a top-25 finish in five of his other 12 games last season with Montgomery active. The underlying metrics also support his explosiveness, finishing fifth in efficiency, fourth in rush yards over expected, and 12th in elusive rating. There's no question he has the ability to deliver great performances, even on fewer touches.
His opportunity takes a bit of a hit because the team signed Travis Homer and D'Onta Foreman, and added Roschon Johnson to round out their backfield. That said, Foreman profiles as a big-bodied bruiser who can get the tough yards, while Johnson is still integrating into the system. Herbert is the best pass-catcher of the group and projects to be their lead back according to reports out of camp.
It's also possible that multiple backs could succeed because the offense is trending upward. They added D.J. Moore to pair with Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Chase Claypool, which will take some pressure off the ground game. Montgomery and Herbert faced eight defenders in the box (near the line of scrimmage) a combined 47.9% of the time in 2022. Opposing defenses were willing to let Justin Fields try to beat them through the air in favor of taking away the rushing threat he and the backfield posed, which could shift significantly. Chicago ranked 23rd in points scored and dead last in passing attempts, leaving a lot of room for improvement.
Herbert has a chance to be a steady contributor with massive upside if he secures the starting role and the offense improves, especially given his draft cost of 108 in redraft ADP on Sleeper.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Much like Herbert, Mattison has showcased his fantasy potential when given the opportunity to fill in for Dalvin Cook, with notable finishes such as RB4 in Week 18 last season, as well as finishes of RB9, RB7, and RB5 in 2021. The data backs him as well, with 23 missed tackles forced on a mere 77 attempts for an average rate of 29.9%, an elusive rating of 85.8, good enough for 10th among all backs, and he finished with only three fewer touchdowns (five) than Cook despite 190 fewer carries.
Moreover, the team signed him to a two-year, $7 million deal, including $6.35M guaranteed.
Couple this with the team releasing Cook, and adding almost no depth, aside from DeWayne McBride who was selected 222nd overall, and Mattison is positioned for a massive year. It's fair to wonder if he can manage the workload and produce the same as the other elite tailbacks in fantasy, but with an ADP of 61 overall, he doesn't have to hit that bar to pay off.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Cook was another fan favorite entering last season, who many drafted very high based on the expectation he would lead the backfield. Unfortunately, he finished third on the team in attempts behind Devin Singletary and Josh Allen. He also trailed Singletary in receptions. While the overall output was disappointing, his explosiveness was undeniable. He finished 17th in breakaway runs (15-plus yards) with 17 of them, despite only carrying the ball 89 times. Furthermore, he finished with the 15th-highest yards per route run of all tailbacks at 1.43, averaging 8.57 yards per reception.
He, too, has an improving situation. Singletary signed with the Houston Texans, creating a void that has been filled by Damien Harris, who is a talented runner but has never excelled as a receiver. They also brought in Latavius Murray, who poses a greater threat to Harris and his rushing role than to Cook as a receiver. Cook's second-round draft capital also makes him the favorite to be the starter.
The other thing worth noting is the possibility the team decides to run the ball more frequently. They finished third in pass rate over expectation last season, indicating an aggressive approach. They were 16th in rushing attempts but showed an inclination to attack opponents on the ground during the second half of the season. From Week 10 on, they averaged 29.4 attempts per game, compared to 24.4 in the first nine weeks. Cook has a real chance to emerge as a top-24 back with spike weeks, plus he's going 86th overall, enabling you to stockpile players at other positions first.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
White garnered a lot of interest entering the season because of his receiving ability and the possibility that he could overtake Leonard Fournette for the starting job. It took until Week 7 for him to carve out a role, but he never saw fewer than seven touches the rest of the season after that, aside from Week 18 when they rested their starters.
His breakout moment came in Week 10 against Seattle, capitalizing on an injury to Fournette. He rushed for 105 yards on 22 attempts, most of which came in the second half. Fournette missed their next outing against Cleveland, where White showcased his pass-catching prowess, finishing with nine receptions for 45 yards. The passing attack is where he excels, which is a question mark now for the Buccaneers, who lost the GOAT Tom Brady to retirement. They currently have sophomore Kyle Trask and veteran Baker Mayfield on the roster.
The team also released Fournette.
His absence will thrust White into a starting role for a team with needs in other positions, plus they're dealing with cap issues. Thus far, the team has added Chase Edmonds, who was cut by the Dolphins in favor of Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert, before being signed and cut again by the Broncos.
The team did add Sean Tucker out of Syracuse, but he went undrafted, indicating the lack of confidence teams have in him, particularly his health. It sets White, who was drafted 91st overall in 2022, up nicely to be a potential workhorse, and he's someone you can grab later in your draft with a redraft ADP of 75 on Sleeper.
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
Gainwell spent his sophomore season competing with Miles Sanders and Boston Scott for touches but made his mark in the playoffs. In those three games, he totaled the most rushing and receiving yards of the three backs, with 181 and 55, respectively. He also took over for Sanders during the Super Bowl after he went down due to injury.
Although the playoffs were where he shined, he still led the backfield in receptions and receiving yards during the regular season, despite playing an average of 28% of the offensive snaps with a season-high of 42%. It's difficult to garner too much data on Gainwell because of his limited touches, but he did average 4.5 yards per attempt and 7.3 yards per reception, demonstrating his efficiency in this offense.
Scott re-signed with the team on a one-year deal worth two million dollars, but Sanders, who accounted for 259 rushing attempts and 26 targets, is headed to the Panthers. Losing Sanders opens up a lot of work for the remaining backs. In addition to bringing back Scott, Philly added Rashaad Penny on a one-year deal worth even less than Scott's. He'll receive $1.35 million with only $600,000 guaranteed. They also traded for D'Andre Swift, giving up very little in terms of capital, taking a chance he can contribute.
We all know the situation with Penny at this point. He's talented and explosive but cannot stay healthy. Penny played in 14 of 16 games in his rookie season with Seattle. However, he's since played in 28 of a possible 66 games. He managed just five in 2022 before suffering a broken fibula. You can bet on one of two things happening in 2023, either Penny's role and workload get reduced in an attempt to keep him healthy or he plays in fewer than 17 games.
Swift's issues are similar, struggling with health, but he's also been demoted to the backup role several times throughout his career, falling out of favor with the coaching staff. He's missed 10 games across his three seasons, but more importantly, he's only been denoted the starter in 16 of the 40 games he's been active.
It's fair to believe he can help the offense with a lesser role, but it will still leave room for others to play a part in an offense that will score a lot of points and lean on their rushing attack. They also have an excellent offensive line and one of the league's most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks, opening up running lanes for the backfield.
Gainwell is competing for the pass-catching role, which some beat writers for the Eagles have called him a lock for. Furthermore, he possesses plenty of upside should Swift and/or Penny miss time, which feels all but guaranteed, and the cherry on top is he's undrafted in many leagues with an ADP of 191.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Ever since Kareem Hunt was released in 2018, the Chiefs have struggled to find a true starting caliber RB option. It's safe to say they've given up on Clyde Edwards-Helaire despite his first-round draft capital. He'll remain a depth piece this season because of his contract, but he can be cut for no dead cap hit next offseason to save over five million dollars. Thus, he's not a part of their future.
After making a regrettable pick on Edwards-Helaire, the team seems to have struck gold with their seventh-round selection in 2022, acquiring Pacheco, who was extremely impressive. He generated some buzz during training camp and the preseason, which was hard to trust given his draft capital.
It took until Week 9 for him to really secure the lead-back role, but over the final nine games, he carried the ball 126 times for 633 yards and four touchdowns. His full-season pace would be 238 carries for 1,196 and eight touchdowns. He was effective as a ball carrier, totaling eight breakaway runs and averaging nearly five yards per carry. He also finished 14th in rushing yards over expected per attempt with 0.45.
There's also an opportunity for growth in the passing attack, where he caught only 13 passes all season largely because of Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon is back with the team, but he's another year older and their overall receiving corps is questionable at best, leaving room for Pacheco to increase his receptions.
The Chiefs have a tendency to throw the ball near the goal line, but when they called upon Pacheco, he delivered. He scored five touchdowns inside the 10-yard line on 20 attempts, including three inside the five on seven attempts, meaning he gets the job done. Once again, he's a great bargain, sitting at 78 overall.
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