X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Dynasty Price Check - Mike Gesicki

Justin Carter profiles Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki for the 2019 fantasy football season. What is his dynasty value in the offseason and should he be considered a buy or sell at TE?

Last year, the Miami Dolphins spent a second-round pick on Penn State tight end Mike Gesicki. Tight end had long been a rough position for the Dolphins, as the team hasn't had a player at the position hit the 500-yard mark since Charles Clay in 2014, but the move to pick Gesicki seemed like a move to fix that issue.

Through one season, though, there's not much evidence to suggest that Gesicki is going to change that. He finished his rookie year with just 22 catches for 202 yards, failing to find the end zone and receiving just six targets in the red zone.

But rookie tight ends always fail, right? Should you be looking to buy low on Gesicki this summer, or trying to sell him while he still has some value in the hopeful eyes of dynasty owners?

Editor's Note: Explore RotoBaller’s Dynasty Fantasy Football hub for year-round dynasty rankings, trade tips, rookie analysis, and long-term player outlooks. Dominate your league with our sleepers, stash targets, and dynasty draft advice. Click here for Dynasty rankings and strategy.

 

Profile

Mike Gesicki
Team: Miami Dolphins
College: Penn State
Height/Weight: 6'6", 245 pounds
2018 NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick 42

 

Case to Buy

The Dolphins offense wasn't very good last season, as they finished 30th in the league in passing yards, ahead of just Buffalo and Arizona, but a new coaching staff means we can likely expect some positive movement on that front. That would help Gesicki out.

Last year, I took a look at production from rookie tight ends, and while there were some numbers to suggest rookie tight ends were improving, there was a good argument to be made that those improvements were just a blip on the radar. Generally, the track record of rookies at the position has been pretty bad, and Gesicki lived up to that track record last year. It makes sense; tight ends essentially have to learn two roles -- offensive lineman and receiver -- when they enter the league, and the linebackers they often find themselves matched up with are a lot bigger than the linebackers they face at the college level.

Gesicki should improve in his second season. Even the highly-touted 2013 tight end class -- which featured Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, and Tyler Eifert -- didn't produce any TE1 fantasy finishes in 2013, but those players have shown significant improvement (when healthy for the latter two) in subsequent seasons. In standard scoring, just two rookie tight ends since 2005 have finished in the top-10 at the position.

Gesicki is still the same player he was coming out of Penn State, which is to say that he's a tall tight end who can make leaping catches, and his size will allow the Dolphins to create mismatches when they flex him out wider. He can work out of the slot, and while that's not as big of a deal now as it was when the Dolphins coaching staff was the same one that made Jarvis Landry's slot role into one of the best PPR roles there was, it's still a good sign for his usage moving forward.

Also, his workout metrics, per PlayerProfiler, are... pretty good:

Like...those are winning numbers. That's a player who can put up huge numbers, especially with a coaching staff that's coming from the Patriots tradition, where the team spent a decade putting Rob Gronkowski in great positions.

 

Case to Sell

Remember that stat about the Dolphins being 30th in passing? Well, they added the quarterback for the team that was 32nd in passing, and while Josh Rosen is also just a second-year player, there's definitely reason to worry about him and his development. So, there's the first reason to worry about Gesicki -- his quarterback situation is extremely unsettled. Maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the job, which would be good in the short term. Maybe Rosen does, which is probably bad in the short term. Maybe the team drafts a quarterback next year, which is even more uncertainty added to the situation.

There's also the fact that Gesicki's rookie year was...pretty bad even by rookie standards. Of the five rookies taken in the first three rounds last year, he had the worst fantasy finish. In fact, Gesicki's finish as the TE63 in standard is the worst finish for a rookie tight end taken in the first three rounds since Nick Vannett in 2016. That's a pretty good reason to worry about his development, but a bad rookie finish doesn't necessarily mean too much. Jared Cook and Jermichael Finley both finished outside the top-50 as rookies, but it is...pretty rare to see a player go from the level Gesicki was at to becoming a top fantasy player.

There's also the fact that because Gesicki's not in a great position heading into the 2019 season -- the quarterback issues, the team's addition of Dwayne Allen -- he's likely going to have even less trade value after the 2019 season, even if his overall stats improve. Year three for Gesicki is probably when a breakout would occur -- if one does -- but another year on his wheels and another fresh crop of tight ends entering the league means you're probably not getting more for Gesicki than you will now.

 

Final Verdict

I'm kind of in a hold onto Gesicki if you have him, but don't trade for him state of mind. I've got Gesicki in two dynasty leagues and I don't think I'm going to be able to deal him for anything of great value. Gesicki is probably worth a late-second-round pick or a backup running back and I think Gesicki's overall upside is higher than dealing him for either of those.

On the other hand, if I don't have Gesicki in a league, I don't think I place enough value on tight ends to deal someone at a position like running back where I need more depth. Maybe I'd deal a late second for him if my rookie draft hasn't happened yet, but I wouldn't feel particularly good about it unless I really need help at tight end.

More Dynasty League Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF