Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Dynasty Price Check - Mike Gesicki


Last year, the Miami Dolphins spent a second-round pick on Penn State tight end Mike Gesicki. Tight end had long been a rough position for the Dolphins, as the team hasn't had a player at the position hit the 500-yard mark since Charles Clay in 2014, but the move to pick Gesicki seemed like a move to fix that issue.

Through one season, though, there's not much evidence to suggest that Gesicki is going to change that. He finished his rookie year with just 22 catches for 202 yards, failing to find the end zone and receiving just six targets in the red zone.

But rookie tight ends always fail, right? Should you be looking to buy low on Gesicki this summer, or trying to sell him while he still has some value in the hopeful eyes of dynasty owners?

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Profile

Mike Gesicki
Team: Miami Dolphins
College: Penn State
Height/Weight: 6'6", 245 pounds
2018 NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick 42

 

Case to Buy

The Dolphins offense wasn't very good last season, as they finished 30th in the league in passing yards, ahead of just Buffalo and Arizona, but a new coaching staff means we can likely expect some positive movement on that front. That would help Gesicki out.

Last year, I took a look at production from rookie tight ends, and while there were some numbers to suggest rookie tight ends were improving, there was a good argument to be made that those improvements were just a blip on the radar. Generally, the track record of rookies at the position has been pretty bad, and Gesicki lived up to that track record last year. It makes sense; tight ends essentially have to learn two roles -- offensive lineman and receiver -- when they enter the league, and the linebackers they often find themselves matched up with are a lot bigger than the linebackers they face at the college level.

Gesicki should improve in his second season. Even the highly-touted 2013 tight end class -- which featured Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, and Tyler Eifert -- didn't produce any TE1 fantasy finishes in 2013, but those players have shown significant improvement (when healthy for the latter two) in subsequent seasons. In standard scoring, just two rookie tight ends since 2005 have finished in the top-10 at the position.

Gesicki is still the same player he was coming out of Penn State, which is to say that he's a tall tight end who can make leaping catches, and his size will allow the Dolphins to create mismatches when they flex him out wider. He can work out of the slot, and while that's not as big of a deal now as it was when the Dolphins coaching staff was the same one that made Jarvis Landry's slot role into one of the best PPR roles there was, it's still a good sign for his usage moving forward.

Also, his workout metrics, per PlayerProfiler, are... pretty good:

Like...those are winning numbers. That's a player who can put up huge numbers, especially with a coaching staff that's coming from the Patriots tradition, where the team spent a decade putting Rob Gronkowski in great positions.

 

Case to Sell

Remember that stat about the Dolphins being 30th in passing? Well, they added the quarterback for the team that was 32nd in passing, and while Josh Rosen is also just a second-year player, there's definitely reason to worry about him and his development. So, there's the first reason to worry about Gesicki -- his quarterback situation is extremely unsettled. Maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the job, which would be good in the short term. Maybe Rosen does, which is probably bad in the short term. Maybe the team drafts a quarterback next year, which is even more uncertainty added to the situation.

There's also the fact that Gesicki's rookie year was...pretty bad even by rookie standards. Of the five rookies taken in the first three rounds last year, he had the worst fantasy finish. In fact, Gesicki's finish as the TE63 in standard is the worst finish for a rookie tight end taken in the first three rounds since Nick Vannett in 2016. That's a pretty good reason to worry about his development, but a bad rookie finish doesn't necessarily mean too much. Jared Cook and Jermichael Finley both finished outside the top-50 as rookies, but it is...pretty rare to see a player go from the level Gesicki was at to becoming a top fantasy player.

There's also the fact that because Gesicki's not in a great position heading into the 2019 season -- the quarterback issues, the team's addition of Dwayne Allen -- he's likely going to have even less trade value after the 2019 season, even if his overall stats improve. Year three for Gesicki is probably when a breakout would occur -- if one does -- but another year on his wheels and another fresh crop of tight ends entering the league means you're probably not getting more for Gesicki than you will now.

 

Final Verdict

I'm kind of in a hold onto Gesicki if you have him, but don't trade for him state of mind. I've got Gesicki in two dynasty leagues and I don't think I'm going to be able to deal him for anything of great value. Gesicki is probably worth a late-second-round pick or a backup running back and I think Gesicki's overall upside is higher than dealing him for either of those.

On the other hand, if I don't have Gesicki in a league, I don't think I place enough value on tight ends to deal someone at a position like running back where I need more depth. Maybe I'd deal a late second for him if my rookie draft hasn't happened yet, but I wouldn't feel particularly good about it unless I really need help at tight end.

More Dynasty League Strategy




More Recent Articles

 

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 15

Welcome to Week 15, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football playoffs. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


Week 15 Panic Room: Outlooks for Slumping and Injured Players

As you set your Week 15 fantasy football playoff lineups, there may be some players who make you feel very uncomfortable about starting them. Based on recent lackluster performances, injuries, or just an intangible bad vibe, it's a struggle to insert them into your lineup in a do-or-die week. But you may also nervous be... Read More


Drew Lock: Is He Ready For Fantasy Football Playoff Consideration?

There is much excitement in Denver after Drew Lock put on an air display at Houston last week. In just his second NFL start, the rookie threw for 309 yards and three TD passes, all in the first half, as the Broncos stunned the AFC South leaders, 38-24. The final score doesn’t indicate what type... Read More


Survive and Advance: The King's Guide to Fantasy Football Playoff Sanity and Success

As the playoffs progress in the NFL every season, media coverage ramps up. By the time we get to Super Bowl week, it's become a full-blown circus. There are microphones and recorders being shoved in players' faces at every waking moment, and the questions never stop. As the fantasy football playoffs move ahead, there is... Read More


Red Zone Sleepers and Busts - Week 15

We are at a crucial point in the season. Hopefully, your team is still alive, but there is always an opportunity to get your team in shape before that final push! As fantasy owners, we know that not all touches are equal. A touch in the red zone has an increased chance of scoring a... Read More


QB vs Pass Rush Matchups To Watch - Week 15

Week 15 is here, and the fantasy playoffs are rolling. Some head into the fantasy semifinals as big favorites but others are scrapping to keep their season alive. Real teams start at quarterback, and the position is pretty important for fantasy as well. Quarterbacks have changed the game for fantasy football this year with guys... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target In Week 15

In Week 14, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas were the high-end options that came through with solid performances, both finishing in the top-five even though they had fairly tough matchups. A.J. Brown finished as the No. 1 receiver on the week, scoring two touchdowns off of just seven targets, while Darius Slayton and Emmanuel Sanders... Read More


Woos and Boos - Starts and Sits for Week 15 Lineups

The trend of fresh faces being among the tops of the fantasy scoring leaderboard continued in Week 14. Across the skill positions, we saw players that took advantage of plus matchups and excelled for fantasy owners during the first week of the playoffs. Mitchell Trubisky and Drew Lock came out of nowhere to finish inside... Read More


Inside the Tent - Week 15 NFL Injury Insight

At RotoBaller, we can't stress enough the importance of keeping up with injuries and playing your best lineup week after week. Players are going to get injured, that's an unavoidable fact. What's avoidable though is making the wrong roster decisions based on the injuries surrounding your fantasy squad. If you want to dominate your leagues... Read More


NFL Matchup Ratings Tool - Weekly Player Projections

  If you see the red "Upgrade" button below, then you are not a Premium subscriber, or have not yet logged in. Learn more about our NFL Matchup Ratings and projections system. Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 15

Welcome to our Week 15 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Week 15 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 15 Jared Cook (concussion) practiced in full. D.J. Chark has officially been ruled out for Week 15. Adam Thielen... Read More


All-Day For the Win: Why Adrian Peterson Matters Again

I don't think anyone could ever be happy at any sports player getting injured. It just makes no sense, so please leave the hatred out now and forever when it comes to that. That being said, though, we're talking about just a branch of sports here with fantasy football, and we all know what is... Read More


Fantasy Football IDP Rankings for Week 15 (Top 100)

One of the great things about implementing IDP in fantasy football is that it balances out some of the insanity that the offensive players produce in some weeks. If you started a lineup with Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Boston Scott, A.J. Brown, Darius Slayton, and Noah Fant then you undoubtedly crushed your opponent while a... Read More