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Chris Clegg's dynasty fantasy baseball buy lows, sell highs, and MLB news for Week 17 (2025). Notable prospects debuts and dynasty risers/fallers including Dominic Canzone and Wilyer Abreu.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my dynasty fantasy baseball risers, fallers, and buys/sells for Week 17 of the 2025 MLB season. As June comes to a close, sample sizes have begun to stabilize, and there is less noise in the samples. Prospects are getting the call to majors, and there is plenty to discuss.
Today's dynasty article will look at recent prospect call-ups like Troy Melton, Brice Matthews, and Cam Schlittler along with several other dynasty-related news items. This bi-weekly series will examine various prospects and dynasty news and discuss fantasy implications. If you enjoy dynasty fantasy baseball, you know it is a fast-paced game. Keeping up with current events can help you stay ahead of your league mates.
Call-ups, trends, and buying and selling players are all just small pieces to help you stay ahead. So, that's what we will do in this article each week: break down everything you need to know to be successful in dynasty. At the end of the day, we all want to build a dynasty team that sustains and lasts for the long haul. I am here to help you do so. So, what do you need to know for dynasty leagues in Week 17 of the 2025 season? Let's dive in.
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Recent MLB Prospect Call-Ups
Troy Melton was an unheralded prospect out of San Diego State who landed in the fourth round of the 2022 draft. Pitching just five innings that season after the draft, Melton came into 2023 without much hype, but that began to change as he pitched at a high level in Low-A before improving even more in High-A. The 2024 season saw a significant drop-off, but Melton looks back on it now in 2025.
Melton got the call by the Tigers and will make his MLB debut this week. After his most recent start, Melton has a 2.99 ERA with a 26 percent K-BB%, one of the best marks in the minors.
The fastball sits around 97 mph, touching 100 with 16+ inches of IVB and seven inches of horizontal movement. Melton locates it well up in the zone and throws it for strikes at a high rate while throwing from a lower 5-foot-5 release height. He also mixes in a two-seamer in the low 90s and a cutter around 90 mph.
Melton’s slider sits in the mid-80s with nearly eight inches of sweeping action and good depth. The curveball generates more sweeping action, sitting in the upper-70s with a true two-plane break. Melton’s changeup shows nice fading action with low spin, diving off late and generating whiffs.
A heavy strike thrower, Melton pounds the zone with each of his pitches, which led to a 67 percent strike rate, showing plus control. While he has been underrated in fantasy prospect circles, Melton has the traits of a top 100 prospect. Buy in.
Troy Melton DEALT today! 🃏
4.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K 🔥 pic.twitter.com/nUlAVVvahM
— Toledo Mud Hens (@MudHens) July 19, 2025
Brice Matthews has gotten off to a slow start to his MLB career, but it is just a 15-plate-appearance sample we are talking about. With 15 homers and 32 stolen bases in 2024, Matthews showed an impressive power/speed combo as he jumped from High-A up to Triple-A. This year, Matthews began the year with Sugar Land and was rather dominant. With 10 home runs and 27 extra-base hits, Matthews showed the five-category potential by also swiping 25 bases.
Matthews is a stellar athlete, which is evident when you see him in person and watch him run. He steals bases with ease, getting great reads and jumps. The power upside is there, as Matthews posted a 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity with strong batted ball angles.
The biggest concern with Matthews is his ability to make contact. Matthews posted a 64 percent and a 74 percent in-zone contact rate. The approach is good as Matthews is running just a 20 percent chase rate and an average zone swing rate. Contact remains an issue in the majors, as expected.
Matthews is playing most days at second base. If he begins the hit, the power and speed are intriguing. He is a deeper league play for now until he adjusts to major league pitching.
Cam Schlittler dazzled in his MLB debut for the Yankees, striking out seven batters in 5 1/3 innings. Sure, he allowed four hits, two being homers, but otherwise, Schlittler looked the part of a Major League starter. The minor league numbers were great as Schlittler posted a 2.82 ERA across 76.2 innings with a 33.3 percent strikeout rate and a strong 24 percent K-BB.
His fastball averages close to 97 mph, and it comes with 16-17 inches of IVB, and tops out around 99 mph. Schlittler pounds the zone with it and locates it well at the top of the zone. The real attraction is his 2500 rpm slider, which graded out exceptionally well, having 11 inches of sweeping action and very strong HAA.
While the fastball and slider are plus pitches, Schlittler also features a curveball with two-plane movement as well as an upper-80s cutter. Schlittler could benefit from adding a changeup, but he has not yet shown a clear need for one.
While Schlittler did have his start skipped, he is fine and will make his next start on Tuesday against the Blue Jays.
Cam Schlittler gets his first strikeout throwing 💯 and his family couldn't be more proud 🥹 pic.twitter.com/isf0Oag4nT
— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2025
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Trends: Pitcher Regression?
SIERA, also known as Skill Interactive Earned Run Average, is a good indicator of the future success of pitchers. It attempts to quantify a pitcher's performance by taking out factors that a pitcher cannot control. What it does include that other estimators don't is batted ball events, and it adjusts for the type of batted ball.
Given these factors, SIERA tends to be a bit more predictive, while other ERA indicators may be more descriptive. This means we can look at these numbers and see who might come down to earth a bit, or could shake off a rough start and finish strong.
Negative Regression Candidates
| Player | ERA | SIERA | Delta |
| Kodai Senga | 1.39 | 4.16 | 2.77 |
| Shota Imanaga | 2.40 | 4.75 | 2.35 |
| Tyler Mahle | 2.34 | 4.64 | 2.30 |
| Randy Vasquez | 3.80 | 5.85 | 2.04 |
| Andrew Abbott | 2.13 | 4.04 | 1.91 |
| Noah Cameron | 2.31 | 4.15 | 1.84 |
| Jose Quintana | 3.49 | 4.92 | 1.42 |
| Matthew Boyd | 2.34 | 3.71 | 1.37 |
Positive Regression Candidates
| Player | ERA | SIERA | Delta |
| Ben Brown | 6.13 | 3.60 | -2.52 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 7.14 | 4.71 | -2.43 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 5.94 | 3.89 | -2.05 |
| Trevor Williams | 6.21 | 4.48 | -1.73 |
| Bryce Elder | 5.65 | 4.10 | -1.54 |
| Michael Soroka | 5.10 | 3.57 | -1.53 |
| Charlie Morton | 5.58 | 4.17 | -1.41 |
| Walker Buehler | 6.12 | 4.75 | -1.36 |
| Dylan Cease | 4.64 | 3.28 | -1.36 |
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Buys and Sells
Dominic Canzone has been quite effective for the Mariners, and the data seems to support this. In 106 MLB plate appearances this year, Canzone has six home runs and a strong .317/.349/.554 slash line. This followed 13 blasts in Triple-A across 197 trips to the plate.
Under the hood, Canzone has seen his zone-contact rate jump to 91 percent, up 15 percentage points from last year's MLB sample, and the overall contact is also up 11 percentage points. Although the chase rate remains absurdly high, some players have learned to make it work. I'm looking at you, Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Canzone has a low zone swing minus chase rate, which is a bit concerning, but the quality of contact is there. The max exit velocity has jumped to 116 mph, and Canzone is running an average exit velocity of 92 mph. Although it is a smaller MLB sample, the 16.3 percent barrel rate stands out significantly. All the exit velocity and hard-hit metrics are right in line in both his MLB and Triple-A sample.
Canzone is a solid buy for dynasty.
After a torrid start to the 2025 season from Wilyer Abreu, it has now derailed a bit. Through May 7, Abreu was slashing an impressive .294/.400/.580 with nine home runs and seven doubles in 140 trips to the plate. The strikeout rate was a manageable 21 percent, and the underlying data was highly impressive.
While the power has still been there, Abreu's approach has fallen apart, and the strikeout rate has jumped to 26 percent. Abreu is hitting just .228 since with a .271 OBP, but he does have 11 home runs. While some of the underlying metrics are still there from a contact standpoint, the approach just leaves Abreu prone to be a streaky hitter.
The splits leave Abreu vulnerable to a platoon as he has just a .686 OPS against lefties. As Yoshida has returned, Abreu's playing time is a little more inconsistent. This could lead to his value beginning to tank. Most are still in on Abreu, and I would suggest checking to see if you can acquire a top 150 dynasty asset.
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